1. The dynamics of the South African political landscape
JP Landman
Economic and Political Analyst

2. Three basics in our political-economy
Economic growth higher than population growth absolute pre- condition for development and modernity.
Social issues driving our politics: unemployment & inequality.
Moderate positions mostly win out – less ideology, more pragmatism.

3. SA economics
SA economy tripped twice since 1994 – in both cases because of global forces (1998 & 2009).
Growth restored after 2009 recession:
From -1.7% in 2009 to 2.7% in 2010 to 3.4% in ’11?
Current consensus:
Rising to 4.4% in ??
Average from 1995 to 2010 (16 yrs): 3.3%.
Average 16 years before 1993: %.
‘Muddle thru’ economy: %.

4. The muddle through economy
Pushing SA growth down:
Global environment.
Domestically: political confusion; strikes; inequality.
Huge social and human deficits; crime, health, education.
Tensions of Transition: mining & agriculture.
Pushing SA growth up:
Investment: from 4% in 2000 to 6.5% in 2007 to 8.4% in the current cycle to 2013.
Building blocks of the 3Ms. (‘Swing to the Left’).
Reasonable productivity growth.
SA’s increasing relations with BRICs.
Strong private sector institutions (compare Russia).
Thus 3.25%.

5. Corruption – Three different measurements
Transparan Intl
WEF Com Report
Heritage Foundation
Ranking
‘Problem’
Ave: 40.3
Brazil 80
6.7% 35
Russia
147
19.4% 23
India 85
10.1%
China 72
7.4%
South Africa 54
6.2% 51

6. Inequality Gini co-efficient (100 = worst) Brazil 57.0 Russia 39.9
India
36.8
China
46.9
South Africa
57.8

7. More work, more unemployment
People working in SA
15 – 64 age
group
Unemployment
rate
Unemployed
number
1995
9.5 mil
39%
17.7%
1.9 mil
2008
13.8 mil
45%
21.9%
3.9 mil
2010
13.1 mil
41%
24.0%
4.1 mil

8. Remedies for unemployment
Higher economic growth:
Commodity economy.
New Growth Path.
Promise: 5 mil in 10 yrs.
Pre-condition for success.
What can happen anyway: 3 million jobs at 3.25%.
Only other remedies:
wage subsidy (R5 billion) & Jobs Fund (R9 billion).
Public Works Programme:
4.5 million ‘job opportunities’ to 2014; 4 months & 6 months.
in first year.
Deregulated labour market (no chance).

9. Moderation wins out (or some critical u-turns)
Green Paper on Land Reform:
From ideology to burocracy.
NHI proposals:
From ideology to greater efficiency.
Bill on Protection of Information.
4 Labour Bills on inter alia labour broking.
‘Swing to the left’ post-Polokwane.
Reaction against Malema and ANCYL.
Why is this?
Open society (forces and counter-forces; checks & balances).
Open economy.
We speak and act our fears, not rational analysis; debate of hatred & resentment.

10. SA’s road map to modernity
Achieve democracy 
Establish sustainable economic growth 
Effect (achieve) social development /2
Unlearn and relearn behaviour and values. 1/2
Build effective institutions /2

11. Thank you