1. LFA Revisited
Pramod Shrestha
28 June 2016

2. Why LFA ? Relevant, feasible and sustainable projects.
To overcome major errors in planning structure!
All key stakeholders participation & efficiency, correct situation analysis correct solutions (activities)
Shared understanding of the situation and of different needs and interest - transparency !
Ownership and responsibility

3. A logical approach to programme management
A systematic and structured process and way of thinking A
in which the process itself is just as important as the product
Cause and effect relationships between actions and effects
Necessary conditions
Responsibilities B
Timeframe
Results measurement

5. Two main phases of project formulation
Analysis phase
Planning phase
Project elements
Defining project structure, testing its
internal logic and risks.
Formulating measurable indicators of success
Assumptions
Determining the sequence and dependency
of duration and assigning responsibility
Stakeholder analysis
Identifying and characterizing potential
major stakeholders; assessing their
capacity
Indicators
Problem analysis
Identifying key problems, constraints and
opportunities; determining cause and
effect relationship
We include the PESTLE analysis to examine the environment that can influence or affected projects, but that is not always included. Some e.g. EC Aid delivery methods do not include PESTLE, but use the SWOT analysis.
Here can we se the analysis (phase) that we use to gather information that are used in the planning phase.
The analysis phase is linked together in a logical “chain” or phases. Where we start by analyzing the environment that the project is going to be operated in (PESTLE), then examine internal and external factors (SWOT).
After that we analyze who should be involved and who will be affected (the stakeholders).
Now it is time to concentrate on the focal problem and analyze the cause and effect relationship of the focal problem by doing the problem analysis.
Then we analyze what needs to be done to solve those problems with special emphasize on the focal problem, by looking into means and ends relationship (objective analysis).
When we have done all that we have taken a look at what the problem is who should be involved the project, who will be affected, what does have to be done to solve the focal problem.
At that stage we do the strategy analysis to determine what are the most favorable options we should tackle, what objectives will resolve the “most” effective. Then we try to simplify and categorize the options we have in the strategy analysis. (I do not understand this passage – needs to be made clearer)
After the analysis phase we have quite clear ideas on what has to be done and why, what is more or most important to do and what we can really do.
Then we go into the planning phase where we sum up all the information into a logframe matrix, assign tasks and responsibility, and schedule when tasks should start and when the should be completed and draft a tentative budget.
The logframe is the “road map” of the project and helps us organize large amounts of information without loosing the overview. To be able to set more detailed plans we use the schedules for allocating costs and responsibilities, and select the right kind of staff.
This system allows us to make detailed plans and even though we have spent a long time on the planning phase, it will “pay off” because when we launch the implementation phase, then the first task is to build detailed activity and resource schedule, which gives us the opportunity to update the planning phase without loosing the integrity of the project.
Objective analysis
Developing solutions from the identified
problem; identifying means-to-end
relationship
Alternative analysis
Identifying different strategies to achieve
solutions; selecting the most appropriate
strategy

6. The results chain Based on causality, attribution and contribution
Impact
Based on causality, attribution and contribution
‘Hope to see’
Long-term development improvements to which we contribute
Results
Outcomes
‘Want to see’
Immediate effects on clients
Beyond team control but achievable given necessary conditions
Outputs
Implementation
‘Expect to see’
The end products and services; deliverables from the activities; within team control
Activities
Financial human and material resources
Actions undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Inputs

7. The typical RBM planning process
Participation/Stakeholder analysis – identify who has an interest and who needs to be involved A
Problem analysis – identify key problems, causes and opportunities; determine causes and effects
Analysis phase
Objectives analysis – identify possible solutions
Alternative analysis – identify and apply criteria to agree strategy
Design phase
Developing the plan framework – define result chain, logic, risk and performance management B
Workplanning – set a workplan and assign responsibilities
Budgeting – determine human and material inputs needed

8. Partnership? Who’s driving the bus?
Who owns the bus? Who paid for the vehicle? Who’s maintaining it?
Who decides where it goes? When? How? Via?
Who’s a passenger? inside? on the roof? hanging on? walking?
Who’s paying? Who’s getting a free-ride?
Who built the road? Who are the police?
Who are you?

9. Check the logic using if… then
Impact
Then will we contribute to this Impact?
Check the logic using if… then
If we achieve this
Outcome
Then will we achieve this Outcome?
If we deliver these
Outputs
Is each level Necessary and Sufficient for the next level up?
Key question
Then will we deliver these Outputs?
If we carry out these
Activities
Start here

10. Sequence
Impact
Check the logic UP
Plan DOWN
Outcome
Output
Activities

11. Why a Problem Tree? Problem Tree Effects Focal problem Causes
Objective Tree
Overall objectives
Project Purpose
Results

12. PROBLEM ANALYSIS is CRUCIAL!
As with weeds, the roots must be tackled, if the weeds are to disappear

13. Analysing the problem
Addressing the effects identifies possible indicators
EFFECTS
Turning the problem into a positive statement gives the outcome or impact
Focal Problem
CAUSES
Addressing the causes identifies possible outputs and activities

14. Risks and assumptions Risk
A potential event or occurrence beyond the control of the programme that could adversely affect achievement of the desired results.*
Assumption
A necessary condition for the achievement of results at different levels.
UNDG Technical Brief: Risks and Assumptions (2008)
*Yes, but don’t forget other types of risks e.g. to security of personnel and resources (fraud)

15. Risk and assumptions– some key messages
The aim is NOT to AVOID risks altogether, but to manage them and take appropriate risks wisely
Do risk analysis with key partners - to get a better picture and also buy-in
Strong analysis is needed of mission-critical risks
Risk analysis should challenge the plan – the results chain logic
Regularly track risks and assumptions

16. Key questions in risk analysis
IMPACT? depends mainly on:
What is the HAZARD itself? Scale? Seriousness?
What is the VULNERABILITY to the hazard? of the poor? of the project?
PROBABILITY? The likelihood of it happening. Data? Reliability of data?
COSTS? What are the costs of taking the risk? Social? Financial? Political? Who bears them? The already vulnerable?
GAINS? What are the gains from going ahead?
MITIGATION? What can be done to improve any or all the above?

17. Risk analysis – an example
“I’ve had your results back and I’m concerned about your cholesterol level.”
Think through how you would analyse this

18. Risk analysis – an example
The Hazard is the high cholesterol level.
I’m male, over 55, with a family history of strokes, so my Vulnerability is medium to high.
Put these two together and the Impact is (no denying it) high
“Continue at these levels, and you’ve a 30% chance of a major heart problem by 70.”
So that’s the Probability. I’d better cut out the cheese, and cream and butter; and eat loads of oats and fish. I reckon that’s a Cost worth bearing.
“Get these levels down and you can assume halving the probability. ”

19. Risks and assumptions An assumption is not the mirror image of a risk.
It is not a risk, written positively; e.g. risk - inflation; assumption - no inflation

20. Risk analysis table Risks Mitigation Assumptions
Impact
Probability
Mitigation
Assumptions
Airport security screening of all passengers.
Screening is sufficiently effective to reduce the risk of highjacking to an acceptable level.
Highjacking of aircraft
Very High
Medium
Deterioration of security situation disrupts project results
Develop and implement security plan. Liaison with UN security office.
Effective preparedness for any deterioration in security; disruption to project results minimised.
Medium
Low
Elite capture of benefits within community
Ensure institutional representation of disadvantaged groups. Monitoring of decision-making processes.
Transparency such that benefits visibly accrue to disadvantaged at community and household levels.
Medium
Medium

21. Re-check the logic using if…and … then
Impact
THEN we will contribute to this
Assumptions
AND these conditions prevail If
we achieve this
Outcome
THEN we will achieve this
Assumptions
AND these conditions prevail If
Outputs
THEN we will deliver these
Assumptions
we deliver these
AND these conditions prevail If
we carry out these
Activities
THEN we will do these
Assumptions If
these pre-conditions prevail
Start here

22. Terms in performance measurement
Indicator
Target
Milestone
Baseline
a quantitative and/or qualitative variable that allows the verification of changes produced by a development intervention relative to what was planned.
a specific level of performance that an intervention is projected to accomplish in a given time period.
an indicator used during the lifetime of a plan by which progress, usually of output delivery, can be measured.
the situation prior to a development intervention against which progress can be assessed or comparisons made.

23. Indicators, targets and milestones
Indicators are means; ‘the proportion of population below $1 per day’
Targets are ends; ‘halve, between and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day’
Milestones are progress checks; ‘reduction by 40% between and 2010, ……..’

24. Essential Qualities of Indicators
Validity
Reliability
Sensitivity
Simple
Practical
Useful
It measures what it is intended to measure without bias.
It measures accurately the real change, consistently over time and place.
It measures small change or progress and reflects differences in key aspects such as gender.
It is easy to interpret and understood by all.
Data is available when needed at reasonable cost.
It is useful for decision-making, planning and learning.

25. Data Sources What evidence do we need? How do we get it?
Available from existing sources?
Is special data gathering required?
Who will pay for data collection?
How much data gathering is worthwhile?
Who will collect the evidence? How often and when?
Where will it be located?

26. Performance measurement matrix
Unit Result
Indicator
Data Description
Data sources
Collection Methods
Frequency
Responsible unit / person

27. LFA matrix/Log Frame

28. 7 LFA STEPS 1 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS 2 PROBLEM ANALYSIS
3 OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS
4 Alternative Analysis
5 Defining the Main Project Elements 6 ASSUMPTIONS LOG FRAME/MATRIX
7 Establishing Indicators

29. How the LFA method works depends on its users
LFA is no better and no worse than its users

30. LFA summary
Relevant, Feasible and Sustainable projects/programs - success!
Participation & ownership!
Joint approach to project
Make problem analysis with accuracy /time to correctly analyze causes & effects
Connection problems and objectives
Add analysis such as cost effectiveness and gender, study on environmental aspects and make a clear division of responsibilities
LFA during all phases of the project

31. Internet information on LFA
framework approach
s/PCM_Manual_EN-march2001.pdf