1. 2016 Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education
Regional higher education planning is important for reaching state and national economic and societal goals. Regional planning can serve to bridge local planning efforts and state-level priorities by providing a scale that is neither so broad that local considerations are lost, nor so narrow that common goals are overlooked.
Coordinated planning efforts are vital to meeting higher education goals and objectives in Texas, including those outlined in the state’s new strategic plan, 60x30TX.
Julie Eklund
Assistant Commissioner,
Strategic Planning and Funding

2. Regional planning is an important strategy for achieving 60x30TX goals
The plan enables regional stakeholders to review and analyze a range of workforce and higher education data:
Population Projections
Workforce Needs
Higher Education Program Offerings
Student Success in Higher Education
The report is designed to support regional planning efforts. It provides a broad range of information such as regional population projections, workforce demand and supply data, higher education data including program offerings and completions by program, and key progress indicators including, enrollment, completion, postsecondary workforce/grad school participation, and student debt.
The information we provide is made available in a regional portal on the THECB data website where planners can look carefully at different data elements, side by side, for their area. We recommend that planners compare data across regions and also compare different data indicators within regions.

3. Recommendations: Use regional data to inform planning efforts
Regional and institutional planners should compare data to identify areas for improvement, establish benchmarks, and set goals and targets
Tracking student mobility within and across regions and the state is essential for planning.
In the report, we do not provide specific planning recommendations for each region, but rather stress the importance of uses a variety of data resources, including those in this plan, to inform and augment what the report does provide and we think it is very important for regional planners to bring their understanding of the local and regional context to the process, however, the rider which calls for this report requires us to make recommendations and I think there are some key takeaways.
The Recommendations in the plan are interspersed throughout the presentation. The rec. are followed by supporting data.
Resources to continue making out-of-state enrollment data available via the National Student Clearinghouse will help provide insight on changing patterns of enrollment.

4. 88 percent of the state population growth is projected to occur in four regions: the Metroplex, Gulf Coast, Central Texas, and South Texas between
Figure Population and Fall 2015 Enrollment by Higher Education Region
Region
% Change
All Ages
18-34 Yrs
Central Texas
8.2%
7.2%
Upper Rio Grande
2.1%
9.1%
Statewide
6.9%
5.1%
Let me provide you with some examples of the type of data that are available. The map you see here shows the 10 higher education regions. We color code them to assist planners in identifying them throughout the portal and report.
To provide some general background ninety percent of the state population growth between 2000 and 2015 occurred in four regions: the Metroplex, the Gulf Coast, Central Texas, and South Texas. As you can see on this slide, this growth trend is predicted to continue.
The Hispanic population of year olds is projected to grow the fastest, followed by African Americans, and whites in every region. The projected increase is12.2 percent for Hispanics and 6.2 percent for African Americans.
Although the total number of whites is expected to increase modestly (1.2%) between 2015 and 2020 – the 18- to 34-year-old subset of whites is projected to decline by almost 90,0000 people (89,286).
NOTE if Asked: The projected increase is12.2 percent for Hispanics and 6.2 percent for African Americans. V 1.2 for white

5. Percent Associate Degree or Higher Percent Associate Degree or Higher
All regions except for West Texas had declines in direct enrollment from high school.
Region
Percent Associate Degree or Higher
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
High Plains
52.2%
51.1%
Northwest
51.4%
49.2%
Metroplex
54.0%
53.0%
Upper East
50.0%
48.2%
Southeast
49.8%
48.8%
Gulf Coast
56.4%
54.5%
Region
Percent Associate Degree or Higher
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Central Texas
53.3%
52.4%
South Texas
54.2%
52.1%
West Texas
50.3%
50.4%
Upper Rio Grande
56.5%
55.4%
Statewide
52.7%
In 2015, 49 percent of Texas public high school graduates enrolled in a public institution of higher education in Texas the first fall after their high school graduation. This represents a slight decline from 49.8 percent in The decline was larger for two-year institutions than universities. Two-year institutions enrolled only 26.0 percent of 2015 high school graduates, compared to 27.5 percent of 2013 graduates. University enrollment for these groups increased slightly during the same two-year period, from 22.2 percent to 22.9 percent.
As part of the targets for 60x30TX, the state aims to reach a direct enrollment rate of 58 percent by 2020 and 65 percent in 2030, including both public and private institutions of higher education. Including enrollment in private institutions, the total percentage of students enrolling directly in higher education in Texas in 2015 was 52.7 percent. This represents a decrease from 54.2 percent in 2014, a trend that will need to be addressed by both K-12 and higher education partners to reach statewide goals.

6. Recommendations: Integrate workforce and degree program data to inform decision-making
THECB should support regions to more systematically incorporate workforce data into higher education planning.
Higher education should consider leveraging new commercial tools for workforce analysis.
Use regional data to ensure there is no unnecessary duplication of higher education programs.
**The report was reorganized this year so workforce data is emphasized more than in the past. Analyzing supply and demand is a very complex task, as indicators of supply and demand can fluctuate and vary by field. Needs are localized and vary considerably across the state. There are many different data sources that can be used.
Overall, we see that some regions of the state are growing rapidly and workers with postsecondary credentials are in demand. New research developed by RAND in their report Using Workforce Information for Degree Program Planning in Texas, identifies a number of high-demand, low-supply occupations by region.

7. 5.2 million job openings are projected in Texas between 2012 and 2022
Occupations projected to be among the top five in number of new jobs (TWC)
Number of regions
Registered nurses, elementary school teachers, general and operations managers 10
Accountants and auditors 6
Middle school teachers 5
Diagnostic medical sonographers and Information security analysts 4
The TWC projects that employment in Texas will grow by more than 2.4 million new jobs (21%) during that 10-yr span. Another 2.8 million replacement jobs will bring the total job openings to approximately 5.2 million. Statewide employment projections in this plan are broken out by the level of postsecondary education typically required for entry.
Every one of the top 10 fastest growing occupations that typically requires an associate degree or postsecondary nondegree award is in a health-related field.
In this slide we highlight the occupations that are projected to be among the top five in new job openings by region. You can see that some occupations are high-demand in all 10 regions across the state, while others such as accountants, auditors, and middle school teachers are high-demand in about half of the state’s regions.

8. The areas identified as high demand and low supply vary considerably by region
On this slide we consider the supply of workers compared to demand. Together in information can assist in the determination of what types of educational programs are most, or least, needed within a region.
RAND researchers developed a methodology for the THECB to compare growth rates (percentages) in the demand for workers (based on the TWC employment projections) with growth rates in the supply of workers.
In the table, we highlight the occupations that fall in the category of: High demand, low supply. Just one occupation, secretaries and administrative assistants, fell into this cell for more than one region; it was identified for four regions. There was no apparent pattern to the other occupations identified.
Institutions in each region need to look at these programs in particular to assess whether there is unmet need and the local factors that may be driving shortages [Note: has to be driven by local demand!].
As you can see, there is considerable variation, which makes the case for regional planners understanding context….
RAND researchers classified the growth percentages into three equal-sized groups: high-, medium-, and low-growth. They further classified supply growth rates into a fourth (“uncertain”) category if they had low precision (i.e., if they had a relatively high ACS sampling error).
Examples include health technologists and technicians (High Plains), air transportation workers (Metroplex), top executives (Gulf Coast), and entertainers and performers (Central Texas).

9. Percent High-Demand Awards Percent High-Demand Majors
The growth of face-to-face and online programs has led to opportunities for students to access most high-demand programs
Award Level
Percent High-Demand Awards
Percent High-Demand Majors
Certificate
90.1%
31.3%
Associate
93.7%
24.3%
Bachelor's
89.4%
26.9%
Master's
91.2%
31.8%
Doctorate
64.8%
16.8%
Total
90.6%
26.6%
We also consider how many graduates are produced by program area to better understand workforce supply, but this information also can reflect demand, as well. For example, computer science degrees. The thresholds have remained similar over time.
What I think is most interesting this data is…
Most of our students are enrolling in a quarter of the programs offered.
In 2015, 90.6 percent of degrees and certificates awarded by Texas public colleges and universities were in areas identified as high demand, as determined by the number of degrees and certificates awarded per program area.
Compared to when we began measuring this information, high-demand program availability has really improved. It’s rare to see examples of where programs are not available. There are exceptions. In 2015, for example, there were no biochemistry graduates in West Texas. Overall, though, the growth of face-to-face and online programs has led to multiple opportunities for students to access high-demand programs.
Based on available data, the THECB has identified 1,016 online degree and award programs offered around the state.
As we look at program distribution by region….. We do want to make sure we have a mix of face to face and online….
Decisions to bring in employers

10. Many high growth subject areas are in the STEM and Health fields.
The five-year trend analysis shows that most STEM fields have increased awards.
Awards in the physical sciences show a steady growth trend since 2011 (36% increase in degrees awarded). Mathematics and statistics degrees also have increased over the past five years, growing by 29 percent. Engineering degrees have increased considerably in the last five years, adding over 1,700 degrees between 2011 and 2015.
Two other workforce award areas, precision production and mechanic and repair technologies, showed notable growth during the five-year period studied. All growth in these fields is due to increases in certificate and associate awards, as there are no bachelor degree programs for these areas.
Finally, health professions and related programs added the most awards of any at the program level, with 4,474 more awards in 2015 than in 2011; most of this increase (55%) was in baccalaureate degrees.
What is needed. All stem fields are not the same. Therefore it is important to look at programs and
Program planners need to understand if there are areas with high enrollments with predicted limited demand. This can be harder for longer term degrees….. One of the best things we can do is ensure students in bachelors programs have skills and abilities that will allow them to be flexible and adjust their course, if needed.

11. Recommendations: Use regional data to inform 60x30TX strategies
To achieve the goals of 60x30TX, all regions— especially the fastest growing areas of the state— must increase student persistence, completion, and attainment.
Higher education institutions in a region must prioritize transfer success by providing aligned programs and clear pathways for all students.
Regions should provide targeted financial literacy supports that reflects the factors that drive borrowing in a region.
Since 2012, community and technical college persistence improved for students from all race/ethnic groups.
Central Texas had the highest persistence rates for university students.
In the Metroplex and Upper Rio Grande, male and female Hispanic students now have the highest rates of persistence among all race/ethnic groups.

12. Economically Disadvantaged
Completion growth in high population regions is critical for reaching 60x30TX goals and targets
Region
Total
Hispanic
African American
Male
Economically Disadvantaged
High Plains
8,666
2,511
375
3,608
4,054
Northwest
4,723
872
263
1,953
2,242
Metroplex
68,554
13,334
10,903
27,998
26,937
Upper East
11,246
1,477
1,751
4,883
5,467
Southeast
6,116
861
1,173
2,523
2,665
Gulf Coast
63,600
17,560
11,544
26,208
25,826
Central Texas
26,830
5,402
3,016
11,475
10,572
South Texas
50,863
33,777
2,121
20,743
25,354
West Texas
4,626
1,777
160
1,803
1,797
Upper Rio Grande
10,047
8,496
262
4,034
5,317
Statewide
311,126
96,650
38,785
130,956
114,003
In FY 2015, there were slightly more than 311,000 completions reported, with more than two thirds of the award earners hailing from just 4 regions. Ensuring that students are prepared for higher education and get the More than two thirds of the student completions are contribute to are in the four high population regions. Since the figures published in the plan, numbers of completions are up overall and in every target category. (for reference, total increased 4%, Hispanic increased 8%, African American increased 3%, male increased 7%. Well-prepared students in the pipeline.
Completions shown are for FY 2015.

13. Student Debt as a Percent of First-Year Wage
Across regions, student loan debt as a percent of first-year wage ranges from 43% to 67%.
Region
Student Debt as a Percent of First-Year Wage
High Plains
59.8%
Northwest
57.6%
Metroplex
61.2%
Upper East
52.8%
Southeast
63.2%
Gulf Coast
56.7%
Central Texas
66.9%
South Texas
58.6%
West Texas
43.1%
Upper Rio Grande
63.9%
Statewide
60.0%
This is data based on student region of residence.
The West Texas region has the lowest debt-to-first-year-wage percentage, at 43 percent. The highest percentage appears in the Central Texas region at 67 percent.
THECB tracks first-time, full-time university students for six years following their initial enrollment to examine patterns of average student debt for graduates versus nongraduates.
Nongraduates in the Central Texas region acquired the most debt, owing 36.5 percent more than the statewide average. Nongraduates in the Upper Rio Grande region incurred the least debt, owing 31.2 percent less than the statewide average.
By comparison, for those graduating with a bachelor’s degree by fall 2015, Table 22 shows the statewide average loan debt per student was $31,868. Graduates from the Southeast region incurred the most debt ($38,194), followed by graduates from the Central Texas region ($35,184). As was the case for nongraduates, graduates from the Upper Rio Grande region had the least debt ($18,877). While nongraduates with debt have less debt on average than graduates statewide, incurring substantial debt without the higher salary associated with degree completion can lead to further economic hardship. An insufficient supply of educated workers can also negatively affect the economy.

14. Questions?