1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2010
January 12, 2010

2. NO CLASS on January 19th and 21st 2010 Next Week
Course News
NO CLASS on January 19th and 21st 2010
Next Week
We will make these up through project meetings.
Syllabus on web site

3. Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 On Line: 2008 Class
First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming
And in particular two subsections
Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
Simple climate models

4. Next Reading: Radiative Balance
Class News
Next Reading: Radiative Balance
Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1
From class website
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Radiative Forcing

5. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class Rood Blog Data Base
Reference list from course
Rood Blog Data Base
Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming
IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers
Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

6. Today
What is (and is not) “science?”
How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized?
Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.
Building the scientific basis of climate change.

7. What parameters/events do we care about?
Temperature
Water
Precipitation
Evaporation
Humidity
Air Composition
Air quality
Aerosols
Carbon dioxide
Winds
Clouds / Sunlight
Droughts
Floods
Extreme Weather
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate

8. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Unification
Integration
Reduction
Disciplinary

9. What is science, the scientific method?
We always have these attributes in the scientific method
Observations of some phenomenon
Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
How do we affect “control?”
What is “control?”
We are seeking cause and effect.
Validation, can I predict the behavior?
Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?
This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

10. Let “science” sit for a while.

11. Let’s suppose that global warming is real.
See what I did, I just said global warming instead of climate change.

12. Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing:
What to do? What to do?
Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing:
observations of climate change
attribution of climate change to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
predictions of climate change
need to respond to the climate change
How do we organize this problem?

13. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

14. Some definitions (more… )
Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited.
Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate.
Resilience: The ability to adapt.
Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

15. Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics.
A point or two
Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics.
A major one is the amount of time for them to be effective.
The long time scales of the climate change problem mean that advantages of controlling the increase of CO2 are realized many years after the action to control the increase.
Cause and effect are difficult to evaluate
Cost and benefit are difficult to evaluate
Adaptation is far easier to evaluate.

16. A point of tension
The discussion of mitigation and adaptation is one of the places where we see tension of beliefs. There was, for some time, the idea that if we talked about adaptation, then we would dismiss mitigation. Plus to talk about adaptation would be to admit there is climate change.
Only recently has adaptation has into discourse.
What about global geo-engineering?

17. So far we are developing the language to talk about climate change.
We have some introduction of the scientific basis of climate change.
We have a framework for organizing how to respond to climate change.

18. Climate Change Relationships

19. Climate Change Relationships
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.

20. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003*
megaton oil equivalent
Source: International Energy Agency 2005

21. Energy and Economic Success
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)

22. Climate Change Relationships
Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
SOCIETAL SUCCESS

23. Climate Change Relationships
Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
POPULATION
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
CONSUMPTION

24. Climate Change Relationships
Climate change is linked to consumption.
The economy depends on us consuming
Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change.
The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population.
Wealth is an important variable.
Hence, social equity is an issue.

25. Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society.
Some challenges
If it was not clear when you woke up this morning, climate change touches every element of society.
It sits in relationship with some other fundamental societal challenges.
Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society.
What sort of things scale to all society?

26. information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences)
...???...
Security
Food
Environmental
National
Societal Success
Standard of Living
RELIGION
POLICY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY
LAW
“BUSINESS”
PUBLIC HEALTH
SOCIAL JUSTICE
Belief System
Values
Perception
Cultural Mandate
Societal Needs
information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

27. That was the introduction for the course.
No matter what your discipline background might be, do you see yourself in this pass through the problem?
There is not a simple “solution;” we will not “solve” this problem and walk away from it.
I assert: we will be required to manage the climate.
Do you see ways forward?

28. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation
Which means lets build up
The observational foundation
The theory foundation
The validation foundation

29. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
Data and more information

30. Web links to some CO2 data
NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas
Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

31. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?

32. About carbon dioxide (CO2)
CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere. Burning changes some organic carbon to inorganic carbon. In ocean transfer of CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid. In some problems CO2 treated as conserved because of time scales of transport and chemical inertness. For the climate problem CO2 in the environment is increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, but there is a lot of cycling.

33. Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange

34. Carbon and Oceanic Exchange

35. This is called “paleoclimatology.”
Let’s look to the past
This is called “paleoclimatology.”
NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch
Ice Core Portal
Vostok Data
Petit, Nature, 1999

36. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm)
This has been extended back to > 700,000 years
A primary reference for this data is Petit et al. (Nature, 1999). There is a remarkable amount of information in this figure. A good exercise would be to describe the variability in the plot, then to analyze what the plot may or may not be telling you about co2 and temperature as well as global warming. It is also interesting to think about human enterprise and this plot. I would call this one of three canonical figures that needs to be understood for participation in the climate change debate.
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

37. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm)
It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

38. So what are we worried about?
460 ppm
CO2 2100
So what are we worried about?
390 ppm
CO2 2010
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind
Temperature is expected to follow
New regimes of climate behavior?
Humans are adapted to current climate behavior.
The change is expected to happen rapidly ( years, not 1000’s)

39. Assignment 1: Describe this figure.
Write a detailed figure caption for this figure. Length no longer than 1 page. What is shown? What is known? Is there information that can be inferred? The figure can be found at Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming

40. What about the CO2 increase?

41. New Regimes of Climate Behavior?
NEW AGE?
Differences for the Future ( years)
~100 ppm CO2 (Already)
> ppm CO2 certain
~ xx C polar T difference
~ xx C global average T difference
Behavior of water; Phase change
CURRENT
(Temperate)
This is a plot I put together to follow on the notion that the historical co2 and T record suggest, perhaps, two regimes. I called this the ice age regime and the temperate (or current) regime. The data show that in the past co2 was about 100 ppm lower. We can, reasonably, conclude that 100 ppm is consistent with changes in climate regimes. We have the fact, observable, that we have already added 100 ppm (more than) co2 to the atmosphere, and we will add at least that much more. Therefore, it is also reasonable to think that significant changes in the climate might follow. Could this be another regime, forced by co2. I called it “New Age.” It might be reasonably called the “Green House,” which is consistent with the paleoclimate nomenclature. Other things to note: 1) The time period in which co2 has been added to the atmosphere is much faster than the time co2 increased in the historical record. This is a major concern, adaptation will need to occur rapidly. 2) One of the most important things to remember in the discussion is that the phase change of water is central to the difference between past and present. This is likely to be true in the future as well. 3) The past variability is natural, in the sense that it is not caused by the behavior of man. What we are adding is, therefore, a “forcing” that is directly related to man. It is important to note that past behavior is linked to biological activity on land and in ocean. 4) Some argue that co2 has been increasing for 100 years, but that we have not been able to find the warming. What is happening with that? (What are the time scales on which co2 and T (in ice?) are correlated.)
Differences from Past (20,000 years)
~100 ppm CO2
~ 20 C polar T difference
~ 5 C global average T difference
ICE AGE
Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.

42. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class Rood Blog Data Base
Reference list from course
Rood Blog Data Base
Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming
IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers
Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

43. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate
Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}