1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2010
January 26, 2010

2. Class News
Ctools site: AOSS W10
On Line: 2008 Class
Current Reading: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1
From class website
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Radiative Forcing

3. National Climate Seminar : Bard Center for Environmental Policy
Seminar Opportunity
National Climate Seminar : Bard Center for Environmental Policy
Bill Schlesinger: Ecology of a Hot Planet
3PM Eastern: Wednesday, January 27, 2010
; conference code,

4. Today
Foundation of science of climate change

5. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class Rood Blog Data Base
Reference list from course
Rood Blog Data Base
Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming
IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers
Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

6. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation
Which means lets build up
The observational foundation
The theory foundation
The validation foundation

7. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Important things in this figure.

8. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

9. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?-2
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean ocean.

10. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

11. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?-1
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

12. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

13. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Hundreds of Years
+5.5
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Movement of carbon dioxide by burning
Millions of Years

14. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?+1
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes

15. Net sources into the atmosphere
Were you counting?
Net sources into the atmosphere
Net removal from the atmosphere
= 6.5
2+1 = 3

16. Web links to some CO2 data
NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas
Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

17. About carbon dioxide (CO2)
CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere. Burning changes some organic carbon to inorganic carbon. In ocean transfer of CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid. In some problems CO2 treated as conserved because of time scales of transport and chemical inertness. For the climate problem CO2 in the environment is increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, but there is a lot of cycling.

18. Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange

19. Carbon and Oceanic Exchange

20. This is called “paleoclimatology.”
Let’s look to the past
This is called “paleoclimatology.”
NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch
Ice Core Portal
Vostok Data
Petit, Nature, 1999

21. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm)
This has been extended back to > 700,000 years
A primary reference for this data is Petit et al. (Nature, 1999). There is a remarkable amount of information in this figure. A good exercise would be to describe the variability in the plot, then to analyze what the plot may or may not be telling you about co2 and temperature as well as global warming. It is also interesting to think about human enterprise and this plot. I would call this one of three canonical figures that needs to be understood for participation in the climate change debate.
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

22. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm)
It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

23. So what are we worried about?
460 ppm
CO2 2100
So what are we worried about?
390 ppm
CO2 2010
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind (more than in > 10 million years)
If carbon dioxide and temperature are intertwined, then
Temperature is expected to rise.
New regimes of climate behavior?.
The change is expected to happen rapidly ( years, not 1000’s)

24. Maybe it is a bunch of hooey
But professor, I spent a lot of time looking at this figure. The carbon dioxide and temperature sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related. Plus, I have read that in the past the temperature increase started before the carbon dioxide increase.
What might be happening? How does the scientist explain this?
Or, better, how does the scientist think about this?

25. What about the CO2 increase?

26. New Regimes of Climate Behavior?
GREEN HOUSE
Differences for the Future ( years)
~100 ppm CO2 (Already)
> ppm CO2 certain
~ xx C polar T difference
~ xx C global average T difference
Behavior of water; Phase change
CURRENT
(Temperate)
This is a plot I put together to follow on the notion that the historical co2 and T record suggest, perhaps, two regimes. I called this the ice age regime and the temperate (or current) regime. The data show that in the past co2 was about 100 ppm lower. We can, reasonably, conclude that 100 ppm is consistent with changes in climate regimes. We have the fact, observable, that we have already added 100 ppm (more than) co2 to the atmosphere, and we will add at least that much more. Therefore, it is also reasonable to think that significant changes in the climate might follow. Could this be another regime, forced by co2. I called it “New Age.” It might be reasonably called the “Green House,” which is consistent with the paleoclimate nomenclature. Other things to note: 1) The time period in which co2 has been added to the atmosphere is much faster than the time co2 increased in the historical record. This is a major concern, adaptation will need to occur rapidly. 2) One of the most important things to remember in the discussion is that the phase change of water is central to the difference between past and present. This is likely to be true in the future as well. 3) The past variability is natural, in the sense that it is not caused by the behavior of man. What we are adding is, therefore, a “forcing” that is directly related to man. It is important to note that past behavior is linked to biological activity on land and in ocean. 4) Some argue that co2 has been increasing for 100 years, but that we have not been able to find the warming. What is happening with that? (What are the time scales on which co2 and T (in ice?) are correlated.)
Differences from Past (20,000 years)
~100 ppm CO2
~ 20 C polar T difference
~ 5 C global average T difference
ICE AGE
Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.

27. Wait a minute!
But professor, I want to go back to that figure. I spent a lot of time looking at it. It’s pretty clear that an ice age is on the way. The climate is clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do about it.

28. Are we saving civilization?
460 ppm
CO2 2100
Are we saving civilization?
360 ppm
CO2 2005
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
If the normal pattern were to continue, without additional carbon dioxide, what would we expect?

29. Global cooling?
Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?
(Next week, this will be an assignment. One page or less. Maybe blog length.)

30. Let’s return to the predictions
In the introduction / motivation for the course, I introduced the IPCC predictions.

31. IPCC projections for the next 100 years.
Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}

32. These numbers are in reasonable relation.
STEAM AGE?
~500 ppm
Differences for the Future ( years)
~100 ppm CO2 (Already)
> ppm CO2 certain
~ C polar T difference
~ 2-6 C global average T difference
Behavior of water; Phase change
CURRENT
(360 ppm)
Differences from Past (20,000 years)
~100 ppm CO2
~ 20 C polar T difference
~ 5 C global average T difference
ICE AGE
~200 ppm
Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.

33. From the Ice Core Data: Questions?
We see a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and Temperature (T)
What is the cause and effect?
Why do we bounce between these two regimes?
Dynamic equilibrium?
Are these oscillations forced in some way by an external force?
Are there other parameters or attributes which are correlated with this behavior?
What is different from the stock market, where past behavior does not indicate future performance?

34. Let’s Look at the past 1000 years
We have more sources of observations.
We have better observations.
We have public records and literature and natural history.

35. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.
Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.
Medieval warm period
“Little ice age”

36. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. {
Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record.
What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?
This is an important point in the ultimate argument, on short time scales co2 and T are not so well correlated. T responds to other factors. These factors will be evaluated based on modeling experiments, which follow from (imperfect) observations of cause and effect as determined by observable events, e.g. volcanos.

37. What do we see from the past 1000 years
On shorter time scales the CO2 and T are not as cleanly related.
Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F.
Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people.
Regional changes, extremes?
Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years.
And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

38. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class Rood Blog Data Base
Reference list from course
Rood Blog Data Base
Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming
IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers
Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

39. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate
Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}