1. Competitiveness Roadmaps
Georg Lettner
Energy Economics Group (EEG)
Vienna University of Technology
Competitiveness Roadmaps
PV Parity Final Workshop
EU PVSEC 2013
Paris, 4 October 2013

2. Agenda Modeling approach Empirical settings in the target countries
MITHRAS simulation tool
Results:
Roadmap to PV competitiveness in different sectors in Europe
Competitiveness of PV electricity imports from MENA countries
Summary
Competitiveness Roadmaps

3. Modeling approach Self-consumption Wholesale market
Economic calculation of the net present value ​​of costs and revenues over the lifetime of a PV system.
Self-consumption
PV generation can be partially or completely replace the current consumption. The economic comparison is made with the current retail electricity price (= generation costs & grid costs & taxes).
Wholesale market
PV revenues at the Wholesale market (less/no self-consumption)
Competitiveness Roadmaps

4. Household/Commercial Customer: Economic Comparison with versus without PV System
1. Household/Commercial Customers with PV System
2. Household/Commercial Customer without PV System
3. Comparison (Economic Trade-Off):
Competitiveness Roadmaps

5. Utility-scale Ground-mounted PV Systems
1. PV System Selling to the Wholesale Market
LCoE-PV System
Spotmarket Price
PV Generation
„Merit-Order“ Effect of PV Generation (Economic Cannibalism)
2. Economic Trade-Off:
Competitiveness Roadmaps

6. Empirical Settings for the Residential Sector in the Target Countries
Overview of the Status Quo 2012 of the Retail Price, Market Price, avg. Energy Yield
and the avg. PV System Costs for all Target Countries
Competitiveness Roadmaps

7. Development of PV System Cost in the Target Countries
Competitiveness Roadmaps

8. Development of Retail Electricity Prices in Target Countries
Competitiveness Roadmaps

9. Development of Wholesale Market Prices in the Target Countries
Competitiveness Roadmaps

10. MITHRAS simulation tool
Public version:
NPV-based economic trade-off analyses of PV generation in all sectors
(households, commerical/industry, utility-scale, non-grid connected)
Using real (measured) load profiles data and also standardized load
profiles on an 1/4 –hourly basis
All parameters in the GUI can be edited/varied by user (tailor-made
individual PV project analysis incl. sensitivity analysis possible)
Internal version (in addition):
Monte-Carlo simulation of all parameters implemented (mean value,
standard deviation, lower/upper limit)
Optimisation of size of individual PV system fulfilling different criteria/
constraints (e.g maximizing self consumption, economic benefits, etc.)
Identification of „expected“ market electricity price for feeding excess
PV generation into the grid (incl. corresponding economic trade-offs)
Competitiveness Roadmaps

11. MITHRAS simulation tool
Simulation Model MITHRAS modeling
PV competitiveness in different sectors
Competitiveness Roadmaps

12. The Simulation Model MITHRAS
GUI: Parameter Settings, Calculation, Result Presentation
Competitiveness Roadmaps

13. Roadmap to PV competitiveness in the residential sector in the target countries
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Competitiveness Roadmaps

14. Roadmap to PV competitiveness in the residential sector in the target countries
Probability of achieving PV competitiveness in the residential sector in the target countries
Competitiveness Roadmaps

15. Roadmap to PV competitiveness in the commercial sector in the target countries
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Competitiveness Roadmaps

16. Roadmap to PV competitiveness in the commercial sector in the target countries
Probability of achieving PV competitiveness in the commercial sector in the target countries for two different kind of load profiles
Competitiveness Roadmaps

17. Roadmap to PV Wholesale Price competitiveness for utility-scale PV power plants in the target countries
Analysis of a possible PV wholesale price competitiveness based on an Energy-only market concept
Competitiveness Roadmaps

18. PV Grid Connections from MENA countries to Europe
Competitiveness Roadmaps

19. Competitiveness of PV electricity imports from MENA countries
Slight Wholesale Price Spread for grid investments between MENA countries and Europe up to 2030
Imports from MENA countries increase the cannibalism of PV competitiveness on wholesale market place
Comparison of average wholesale prices and LCoE has no significance.
Competitiveness Roadmaps

20. Summary Rooftop PV systems in the residential and commercial sector:
PV competitiveness is already reached (or will be reached in a few years)
in majority of target countries.
Self consumptions of PV generation shall be maximised, because…
…at present, these kWhs are not subject to grid tariffs, RES-E support charges,
and taxes.
Although grid tariffs and taxes need to be charged in the medium- to long-term,
this does not affect PV competitiveness fundamentally in future.
Utility-scale ground mounted PV power plants:
Competitiveness of PV generation in the wholesale electricity market is far away.
Inherent structural problem of „economic cannibalism“ of PV generation in the
wholesale market („merit-order effect“) will remain also in the long-term.
Imports from MENA countries will enhance the “merit-order effect”
Competitiveness Roadmaps

21. IEE-PROJECT: WWW.PVPARITY.EU
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:
Georg Lettner
PV Parity Project:
Simulation Model MITHRAS:
Competitiveness Roadmaps