2. DEFINING SOCIAL HOUSING
Social housing is housing allocated on the basis of social or housing need – it is often publicly owned and operated although it does not need to be

3. COUNTING SOCIAL HOUSING
In New Zealand another distinction within social housing is the stock which receives operating subsidies (IRRS) and that which doesn’t
Most of the recent planned increases in the stock of IRRS supported social housing is simply a transfer from the non-IRRS stock – NOT new stock

4. THE DEMISE OF STATE HOUSING
One of the outcomes of Government’s social housing reform programme has been the gradual reduction in the numbers of state houses

5. MANUFACTURED DEMAND INDICATORS
38%
MSD’s social housing waiting list is a poor demand indicator because it is an administered number which is subject to political change

6. MANUFACTURED DEMAND INDICATORS
Mike Wesley-Smith’s TV3 report on Auckland’s Hidden Homeless in May 2016
Park-Up-Homes in June to August 2016
Lisa Owen’s TV3 expose of predatory landlords renting out garages in South Auckland July 2016

7. FAMING SOCIAL HOUSING DEMAND
The idea of a housing needs continuum is commonly used as a way of framing an individual’s need for social housing as a temporary thing which can be managed away

8. FAMING SOCIAL HOUSING DEMAND
Behind this illusion that demand for social housing is passing thing is the idea that we are all on a housing career to independence from the State

9. RE-FAMING SOCIAL HOUSING DEMAND
In thinking about demand for social housing we need to give some thought to the circumstances and drivers which create housing related poverty in the first place.

10. RE-FAMING SOCIAL HOUSING DEMAND
We also need to think about who are presently social housing tenants and the credible prospects of them embarking on a housing career toward home-ownership

11. CORE DEMAND FOR SOCIAL HOUSING
The core demand for social housing will most likely come from two at risk-populations – those working age people with disability and health needs who will stay on benefits for most of their lives – 150,000 people

12. CORE DEMAND FOR SOCIAL HOUSING
And an increasing number of older private sector tenants who reach retirement with insufficient income entitlements and inadequate and insecure housing options.

13. RESPONDING TO UNMET DEMAND
In responding to unmet housing need and housing related poverty we have one of three options
Use demand subsidies such as the Accommodation Supplement and rely on market based provision
Provide social housing
Ignore it

14. RESPONDING TO UNMET DEMAND
There is a critical choice to be made between using market or social allocations to address housing related poverty – this might rely on the size of the at risk population and the scope for market based outcomes

15. RESPONDING TO UNMET DEMAND
Future growth in demand for social housing is likely to come from tenant baby-boomers with demand from the population of working age adults and their children remaining stable.
This growth could be for between 1500 and 3500 additional units per year – but most likely between 2000 and 2500 – at least for the next decade

16. SOME CONCLUSIONS 
The figure of 2000 additional social housing units a year is not seen as extreme or unrealistic. This is the figure necessary so that homelessness does not worsen
Depending on how Crown land is used in the future development of social housing the likely cost will be between $800 million & $1 billion annually
Probably around half these dwellings will need to be in Auckland with Northland, Waikato , Bay of Plenty and Marlborough being the focus for many of the remaining 50%
Here it has been assumed that working age households with children will gradually do better in the housing market as wages and salaries rise in the face of growing labour shortages caused by an aging workforce – migration policy could change this quite radically   