1. Bushfire Persistence & Why Resilience Matters
Lew Short, Principal Emergency Management & Resilience

2. “The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’ or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force and magnitude defy even the best laid plans and the most robust response systems”
Professor Paul ‘t Hart

3. Entitlement to build on residential blocks
Public are generally unaware of risks
Oblivious to bushfire (won’t happen to me)
Controls/protection measures – RFS refuses less than 2% of applications and will negotiate for a better outcome in most cases.

5. Limit to safe operation of helicopters (~50km/h)
Potential:
Loss of radio & telco towers
Loss of situational awareness
Limit to safe operation of helicopters (~50km/h)
Defensive
Indirect attack
Parallel attack
Limit to direct attack

6. Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers

8. Out of Scale Events Big events expose the vulnerability of government
Wicked problems and leaps of faith
The system will break
Blue Mountains
197 house losses
No deaths
What level of risk is tolerated?

9. Sydney Basin drained of fire fighting resources and sent to the Mountains
What if fires had been burning in northern or southern Sydney OR started in these places when the resources were away?
Winmalee

10. “Victims of the October 2013 Springwood, Winmalee and Yellow Rock bushfires are launching a class action against power company Endeavour Energy”
~$200m

11. In 2012 alone, the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is estimated to have exceeded $6 billion.
These costs are expected to double by 2030 and to rise to an average of $23 billion per year by 2050
> 3.5% p.a.
Brittle & costly assets
> population growth,
concentrated infrastructure density, and
internal migration to vulnerable regions
> high consequence events
Forecast of total economic cost of natural disasters

12. All Hazards, All Agencies
Prevention
risk-based land management and planning arrangements
building site location & purpose built design
Critical infrastructure assessment and mitigation works
Preparedness
Emergency Planning arrangements
Insurance
Mitigation works
Warning systems
Inform people about how to assess risks and reduce their exposure
Recovery
working in a swift, compassionate and pragmatic way to help communities recover from devastation and to learn, innovate and adapt in the aftermath
Response
Triage
education systems
well-coordinated response
Shared responsibility

13. Our Options An integrated approach to “all hazards”
Risk management: natural hazard identification, quantification, assessment, constraint mapping and prioritisation of works
Resilience: enhancing the stability of existing approaches (mitigation, hardening of existing assets, warning systems) and implementing works
Transition: incorporating incremental change into the maintenance of existing regimens
Transformational change: the application of new approaches to risk reduction & problem solving 

14. Constantly Changing Environment
10/50 vegetation management
owners in bush fire prone areas to remove trees within 10m of a home and vegetation within 50m of a home without approval
URA bushfire Prone Land Mapping
The Commissioner of the RFS can now amend bushfire prone land maps if an application shows that the bushfire risk on that land has changed.
Assessing bushfire planning at the subdivision stage can eliminate the need to do a second assessment of bushfire risk when development application lodged
Streamlined Subdivision
Transformational
Transition
Transition

15. Challenge: How to make information accessible
In a way that provokes a response
Gives greater understanding of risk
Initiates action and adaptation
Builds capacity
Enhances resilience

16. Thanks Lew Short Principal, Emergency Management & Resilience
Eco Logical Australia
Lewshort14