1. Population Theories

2. Theory of Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition-The phenomenon of population changes in a country over time

3. Stage 1 Pre-Transition High, stable birth rate
High, fluctuating death rate
No natural increase
Rural/Agricultural society
No countries in the world are at this stage

4. Stage 2-Early Transition
High birth rate
Falling death rate-“Germ Theory of Disease Control”
Large natural increase
Rural/Agricultural society

5. Stage 3-Late Transition
Falling birth rate (birth control)
Low death rate
Decreasing natural increase
Urban/Manufacturing society

6. Stage 4-Post Transition
Low birth rate
Low death rate
No natural increase
Urban/Service sector based society

7. Stage 5?? Post-Post Transition?
Death rate>Birth rate=
Natural Decrease

8. Pessimistic Views-Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Political economist who recorded concerns about changes occurring in Europe in the early nineteenth century
-Europe at the time was entering a period of rapid industrialization, but also very rapid population growth.
-According to Malthus, the population appeared to be growing in a geometric sequence (1,2,4,8,16…)- too quickly for the food supply which could only increase arithmetically (1,2,3,4…) .He felt that population, if uncontrolled, would be "checked" by certain things:
"Positive" Checks
1. Disease-"The Black Death"
2. War-Napoleon, Crusades...
3. Famine-India
"Negative" Checks
-predicted that mankind would consciously prevent births through:
1. Choice
2. Delayed marriage

9. Present Day "Positive" Checks
1. Aids, Ebola
2. Africa’s situation (Life expectancy-38 years)
Malthus could never have predicted:
-Global access to medicine, water, food
-Widespread birth control
-Global awareness
-Fear of nuclear destruction

10. William Catton Introduced the concept of the earth’s carrying capacity
He suggests that the earth has been exceeding its carrying capacity for many years; this has been possible because we have been using up non-renewable resources that future generations will need
This is known as a “phantom carrying capacity”-while allowing a higher population, is ultimately non-sustainable and the economic and ecological systems will collapse

11. Optimistic Views
Cornucopians-have faith in the human ability to find technological innovations that will increase the earth’s carrying capacity
D.J. Bogue-Theory of Demographic Regulation-over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits its population. The population will grow only in response to the Earth’s ability to support it.

12. Population Cartogram