1. Alyson Bailes Small States Summer School Reykjavík 26 June 2013
Globalization and the Future Arctic Governance Agenda: Challenges for Small Players
Alyson Bailes
Small States Summer School
Reykjavík 26 June 2013

2. What we will cover
What are the real challenges? - up-to-date and hopefully hype-free analysis
What are the governance options?
Which (sorts of) small states are involved?
Special small state concerns and goals
Guidelines on remedies
(Later, exercise to illustrate)

3. A realistic hierarchy of challenges
Climate change itself, inc. natural disasters
Risks linked to human activity (inc. present activity) in a shifting environment: physical, financial, societal and human
Macro-risks from wrong approaches to development (hasty, reckless, unbalanced, over-competitive etc)
Political, legal and military factors

4. Global warming (NASA images by Robert Simmon, based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies:

5. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

6. Oil and natural gas in the Arctic (http://geology
Arctic Oil and Natural Gas Provinces Map: The United States Geological Survey estimates that over 87% of the Arctic's oil and natural gas resource (about 360 billion barrels oil equivalent) is located in seven Arctic basin provinces: Amerasia Basin, Arctic Alaska Basin, East Barents Basin, East Greenland Basin, West Greenland East Canada Basin, East Greenland Rift Basin, West Siberian Basin and the Yenisey-Khatang Basin.

7. Map of Arctic shipping routes (http://library.articportal.org/1498)

8. Arctic territorial claims (http://www. dur. ac

9. The governance picture
General:
- local particularities: small and very varied populations, ‘indigenous’ factor
- de facto (enhanced) globalization
- increased conscious interest by states, companies, researchers; wider engagement and more varied interests/cultures
- no single ‘Arctic Treaty’ -

10. But we do have.... National jurisdictions
UN elements: UNLOSC, IMO, etc
Arctic Council (and ‘Arctic Five’)
Smaller local groups eg BEAC, West Nordic and Nordic cooperation
Functional groups eg science, fishing
(More arguable): NATO ‘over the horizon’, EU with both practical and indirect impact

11. Different memberships (mostly drawn from Dr
Different memberships (mostly drawn from Dr. Heininen’s Arctic Strategies and Policies, Inventory and Comparative Study)

12. The small Arctic states are the Nordics
The Nordics in the Arctic
Circumpolar population

13. Small states
Prima facie shared interests: (Substantive) Peace, minimal militarization, cooperative handling of security risks, sustainable development, fair shares/niches for all, gradual/controlled societal change (Process-related) Transparency, rules-based approaches = predictability, a seat at the table, a voice to be heard

14. Guidelines for success?
KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND WHAT YOU WANT – based on good consultation, good information/intelligence, and realism
PRIORITIZE but be always ready to adjust
GET TOGETHER WITH OTHER SMALLS (possible options) – and other ‘nice’ ones
CHOOSE YOUR ‘BIGS’ – shelter, balance etc
ALWAYS GO FOR RULES – but obey them too!

15. Ways to have a voice Obvious Not so obvious?
(and NB, ‘actions speak louder than words’)

16. Small states in the Arctic: An Exercise