1. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Dalibor VYTLAČIL
Department of Engineering Informatics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague

2. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Introduction
The efforts for energy savings lead to the questions how to finance investment costs
Nowadays, it is topical problem by reason of relatively low price of energies used in the houses → low financial outcome from the energy saving projects and the increase of the payback period
Projects financing are based on the fact that long term goals are:
obligatory goals for the governments
optional for the building owners
The decision of the owners is based on the project profitability. → to increase the financial output from the project or to decrease the investment costs (improving building parameters in the existing building stock)
Usually we deal with description of the building stock and calculation of the potencial for energy consumption decreasing
The goal of this research: the develop the dynamic model that will consider the dynamics of the systém influencing by subsidy financing

3. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Analysis
Causal diagram with key elements

4. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Method
System dynamics methodology
Stock(t0) is the initial value of the stock element
Inflow(s) are the flows to the stock element
Outflow(s) are the flows from the stock element

5. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Method
Dynamic model – building stocks

6. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Method
Dynamic model – financing
refurbisment

7. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Method
Dynamic model –
programme advertisment
and information influence
refurbisment

8. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Input parameters
Simulation - time period 10 years and for two programmes with the duration of three years with the two years break.
The initial value of the stock Unsatisfactory buildings (the stock of existing buildings in the Czech Republic in 2014) is m2
The initial values built standard buildings m2.year-1, in low energy buildings 0.32 m2.year-1 and passive buildings m2.year-1. The ratio among all types of buildings is changed during the observed time period.
The buildings comply with our energy consumption expectation for the time period 10, 15 and 20 years.

9. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Results
Output parameters for main stocks and flows
Programme I
Programme II
Information about programme I
Information about programme II

10. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Results
Output parameters- ratio between complying and unsatisfactory buildings

11. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Results
Output parameters for different subsidy amount
Output parameters
Complying buildings
Unsatisfactory buildings
Refurbished buildings
Sum of refurbished buildings
[%]
[106 m2]
Subsidy A 16 55
447 18 24
Subsidy B 38 57
445 19 26
Subsidy C 60 59
443 22 29

12. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Conclusions
The computer simulation by means of system dynamics methodology is the suitable tool for the prediction of the future parameters in this complex problem. It can help to understand the dynamics of interdependent system elements.
The key parameter is the refurbishment rate that is influenced not only by the investor project evaluation but also by actions of the subsidy provider. With more subsidy programmes the investors create the amplification of the peak values between two consequent programmes. The reason is that investors have got used for subsidy financing and they are not willing to pay the full investment costs.

13. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Conclusions
The model includes the last elements from the whole supply chain. The assessed changes spread among all elements and causes more problems in the elements in the beginning of the chain The unstable demand for the capacity is the main feature of the problem.

14. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Conclusions
The funding programmes do not solve the problem with financial resources shortage of the investors. If investors do not have the rest of the investment costs they cannot use these programs. It is the important weakness of this approach. Another possibility is the loan for % of the investment costs with the long term redemption. It can open the possibility of the energy savings for new building owners.
New solution is the entrance of new subjects from private sector. They assure the initial capital and they provide know- how for energy savings. The building owners pay back the investment costs from savings. The private subjects are energy suppliers, banks or entrepreneurs →stable behavior

15. REFURBISHMENT DYNAMICS FOR SUBSIDY PROGRAMME FINANCING
Thank you for your attention