1. What’s Rush Got to Do With Presidential Primaries?

2. 2008 calendar: Open primaries
Texas March 4
Mississippi March 11
Pennsylvania April 22
Indiana May 6

3. Cross-over voting
Is a party’s nominee less tied to the party if benefiting from cross-over voting
Is the nominee weaker if benefiting?
Is the party’s political speech diluted?

4. The Limbaugh Effect Did Dittoheads save Hillary’s Campaign
March 4th, Texas her ‘Alamo’
Bill said a ‘must win state’
Clinton ‘won’ TX by 100,000 votes out of 2,820,000
Texas an open primary

5. The Limbaugh Effect
Rush, on March 3rd, tells 13 million listeners ‘hold their noses’ and vote HRC
Dallas Morning News also reported rumors of efforts
Bill O’Reilly mentioned it on Fox

6. The Limbaugh Effect Limbaugh: “We need to sustain this soap opera”
“we need Barack Obama bloodied up politically”

7. The Limbaugh Effect Strategic cross-over voting
Sincere
Malicious, “raiding”
When might voters engage in strategic voting?
Did Limbaugh, et al affect level of strategic voting?

8. The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting
Requires a fairly sophisticated voted, and:
information about election outcomes
incentive to maximize effect of vote
institutional rules that facilitate action

9. The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting In 2008
GOP race known to be irrelevant
Obama ahead in national Dem polls
Head-to-head polls show Obama stronger vs. McCain than Clinton vs. McCain

10. The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting So, in 2016...
would a dedicated Democrat care enough to cross-over?
how many crossed-over in 2008 for sincere reasons?
Socially conservative “Reagan Democrats”

11. The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over voting Institutions
Old WA Blanket Primary said to be a ‘perfect setting’ to facilitate cross-over voting
no penalties
everyone voted for all candidates

12. Cross over voting What do we know?
Most studies show cross-over is sincere
Support for popular incumbents in WA, CA
Parties claim it exists
Dixie Lee Ray (Not a real ‘D’ Dem)
but she won as a Dem so not malicious

13. The Limbaugh Effect
Evidence of cross-over voting in 2008 Democratic primaries?
Exit Polls (which, suck...but forget that)

14. The Limbaugh Effect Evidence
Trends in GOP participation in 2008 Democratic primaries / caucuses
Trends in support for Clinton among Republicans participating in Dem events

15. The Limbaugh Effect
If cross-over voting was malicious, Republican should have moved to Dem primaries and supported Clinton

16. No Limbaugh Effect
Proportion of Republicans Participating in Dem Events
through June 3rd, 2008

17. No Limbaugh Effect
Ratio of Republican support of Obama to Clinton

18. The Limbaugh Effect Evidence
In early events, 3% of voters were Republican
they voted 70% Obama, 30% Clinton
On March 4th, 9% of voters were Republican
they voted 50% Obama, 50% Clinton

19. The Limbaugh Effect Explanations:
1) Clinton changed her style, went on attack, which appealed to more Republicans....and targeted GOP voters
2) TX, MS, IN Republicans more likely to be excited by HRC than Republicans in other states

20. The Limbaugh Effect Explanations
3) Gradual trend where some GOP voters saw their vote had more effect on Democratic side
strategic? yes.
hard to tell if sincere or malicious
hedging

21. The Limbaugh Effect
NO CLEAR LIMBAUGH EFFECT

22. Cross-over voting
Is mere threat of cross-over voting enough for parties to want closed primaries
Other voters “dilute” message of a party

23. 2016 WA presidential primary proposal
1989 Initiative to Legislature
WA Used primary & caucuses then, until 2012
GOP: ½ delegates via caucus, ½ via primary
Dems: all delegates via caucus
Primary suspended in 2012 to save $$

24. WA presidential primary
Caucus in February
3% turnout in 2012
Primary after caucus
Beauty contest for Democrats
40% turnout
in 2000, candidates actually came to WA
in 1988 WA part of ‘Super Tuesday’

25. 2016 WA Primary proposal ‘Pick a party’ ballot
list of all presidential candidates
public record of party declaration
Blanket ballot, if parties don’t go along
one list, no party declaration