1. Elections and campaigns
Chapter 10

2. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Learning Objectives
10.1 Describe the ideas that molded the Framers’ thinking about elections 10.2 Outline the steps in presidential campaigns 10.3 Identify the issues that shape presidential campaigns 10.4 Outline the steps in congressional campaigns 10.5 Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

3. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections
The Electoral College
Problems with the Electoral College
Never worked as Framers envisioned
Electoral College Reform
Eliminating it would decrease the role of states
Small states see merit in the system
Electoral College:
The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president.
popular vote:
Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote.
Key Questions
Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states?
Is the winner-take-all system fair?
How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work?
What inequalities does state control of elections introduce?
Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences?
Key Question
Why did the Framers set up gates against popular participation in elections?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

4. How the Electoral College Works
Figure 10.1
Each state’s number of electors for the 2012 election, allocated on the basis of the 2010 census.
Note: In every state but two the winner of the popular vote takes all of the electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska allocate votes by congressional district and so can split their electoral votes.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

5. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Presidential Elections
The 2000 Presidential Election
Albert Gore Jr. and George W. Bush
Gore received more votes
Florida too close to call on election night
Demand for a recount
Raised distrust of system (short-term)
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

6. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
The 1876 election was contested, and its outcome was determined by an electoral commission. Some feared public disturbances at the inauguration, so Rutherford B. Hayes, who had won the Electoral College but not the popular vote, took the oath of office privately in the White House. The formal ceremony at the Capitol, two days later, was peaceful.
Source: Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division [ LC-DIG-ggbain-03138]
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

7. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Congressional Elections
Senate Elections
Seventeenth Amendment
One-third up for election at a time
House Elections and Redistricting
Entire House up for election every two years
Always been elected by the people
Representatives based on population
Gerrymandering
redistricting:
Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size.
gerrymandering:
Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups.
Key Questions
How do differences in term lengths and constituencies affect how senators and House members behave?
Do majority-minority districts help advance equality or introduce inequalities?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

8. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
The term gerrymander comes from the salamander-shaped district in Massachusetts (above left), which Governor Elbridge Gerry approved following the census of Political rivals denounced the blatant seeking of political advantage that had produced such an oddly shaped congressional district, and the taunt stuck, passing into common usage in politics. Nevertheless, gerrymandered districts remain. In 1991, a North Carolina redistricting was designed to create a district with African Americans in the majority (above right). Federal courts later ruled that North Carolina had to revise these district lines so that the congressional district was more compact.
Sources: Bettmann/CORBIS and North Wind Picture Archives/Alamy
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

9. The Constitutional Requirements for Elections
Other Elections
Only election in Constitution is for the House
Many types of elections today
Public sees elections as way to make political choice
Key Question
Do you think more elections mean more democracy?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

10. The Presidential Campaign
Evolution of the Modern Campaign
George Washington didn’t want to be seen as a monarch
Allowed political parties to work on his behalf
Early 20th century saw presidential candidates campaigning too
Concern over the permanent campaign
permanent campaign:
Charge that presidents and members of Congress focus more on winning the next election than on governing.
Key Questions
Do presidential campaigns ensure that the best person for the office wins?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

11. The Presidential Campaign
In 1896, William McKinley, former House member and governor of Ohio, ran for president from his front porch in Canton, Ohio. Visitors arrived by train, and he spoke to groups of them, sometimes several times a day. In contrast, his opponent, William Jennings Bryan, traveled all over the country by train, speaking to crowds from the back of train cars. McKinley won.
Source: The Granger Collection, NYC
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

12. The Presidential Campaign
The Decision to Run and the Invisible Primary
The Caucuses and Primaries
70% of states use primaries
30% of states use caucuses
Take place January to June
invisible primary:
Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage.
Key Questions
Were you satisfied with the option you were offered in 2012, a choice between Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Why or why not?
Key Question
What inequalities are imposed by the primary system?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

13. The Road to the White House
Table 10.1
© Cengage Learning
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

14. The Presidential Campaign
The National Convention
Prior to 1960s unclear who would be nominee
Today chance for activists/party leaders to gather
The Presidential Debates
Managed by non-partisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates
First debate between Kennedy and Nixon
Debates have more risk than reward
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

15. The Presidential Campaign
Source: Joe Raedle/Staff/Getty Images News/Getty Images
Key Questions
Did you recall any of the 2012 presidential debates? If so, what do you remember?
In October 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney debated President Barack Obama. After the first debate, the consensus was that Romney outperformed Obama.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

16. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Fundraising and Money
Federal Election Campaign Act (1971)
Candidates look for loopholes
Bundling
PACs/Super PACs
Concerns about influence of money on election process
Internet fundraising
Super PACs:
Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties.
Key Questions
What are the pros and cons of laws that regulate campaign finance?
Are presidential campaigns too expensive?
Are presidential campaigns fair?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

17. Total Spending by Presidential Candidates, 1976-2012
Figure 10.2
Spending in presidential campaigns has shown a steady increase over the past four decades, with big increases in the last two elections. By election day 2012, spending by presidential candidates had risen to about $1.8 billion.
Source: From “Presidential Fundraising and Spending ,” Center for Responsive Politics, 2008.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

18. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Swing States
Ohio example of battleground state
90% of campaign visits to battleground states
Microtargeting
Replacing traditional polling techniques
Many versions of the same message
swing voters:
Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins.
swing states:
States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes.
battleground state:
State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College.
microtargeting:
Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting.
Key Questions
What is your microtargeting profile? Can the category predict how you will vote?
Key Question
Do you live in a swing or a battleground state? What is the impact on you?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

19. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Campaign Issues
Valence issues: vague claim to a goal
Position issues: voters understand plan
Wedge issues
Negativity
President Johnson’s “Daisy spot”
valence issues:
Noncontroversial or widely supported campaign issues that are unlikely to differ among candidates.
position issues:
Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action.
wedge issue:
Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents.
negativity:
Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent.
Key Questions
Identify three wedge issues that are important to you. Do they determine your vote?
What is your response to negative ads?
Key Question
What should shape a presidential campaign– issue or character?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

20. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Negative campaigning is not new. This poster from the 1864 election shows Abraham Lincoln defining his opponent, General George McClellan, as the ally of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and perpetuator of the slave system. Lincoln, on the other hand, is for the workingman and freedom. Notice the integrated school with happy children.
Source: The Granger Collection, NYC
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

21. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Source: AP Images/Democratic National Committee
The “Daisy spot” is perhaps the most famous negative ad in American history. It was aired only once by President Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 campaign, and it never explicitly mentioned his opponent, Senator Barry Goldwater. But Goldwater had made statements about the possible use of nuclear weapons, and those statements made the meaning of this ad clear and emotionally resonant.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

22. Issues in Presidential Campaigns
Polls and Prediction Models
Best prediction models use
Economy
Presidential popularity
Incumbent party’s time in office
Retrospective voting
retrospective voting
Theory that voting is driven by a citizen’s assessment of an officeholder’s performance since the last election.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

23. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Share of Positive, Contrast, and Negative Ads in President Campaigns
Figure 10.3
Negativity in presidential campaigns is clearly on the rise. From 2000 to 2004, the proportion of the messages in presidential campaign ads jumped from 30 percent to 40 percent of all ads and continued to increase to 50 percent in In the 2012 campaign, the figure reached over 60 percent, leaving less than 20 percent of the ads in the presidential campaign sending positive messages.
Note: Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008 come from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. Data from 2012 come from the Wesleyan Media Project.
Source: Erika Franklin Fowler* and Travis N. Ridout, “Negative, Angry, and Ubiquitous: Political Advertising in 2012,” DOI /forum , The Forum 2012, 10(4): 51–61. Source: John G. Geer, © Cengage Learning.
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

24. Congressional Campaigns
The Decision to Run and the Primaries
Midterm elections
The Fall Campaign
After primaries, candidates try to attract moderate voters
Geographic size of district affects strategy
midterm elections
Congressional elections held between the presidential elections.
Key Questions
What is the personal background of your representative? Of your senators?
Did you vote in the 2014 midterm election? Why or why not?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

25. Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Fundraising and Money
In 2010 elections, candidates needed more than one million dollars to win or keep a seat
Personal wealth provides an advantage
The Role of Political Parties
Can only engage in general activities
Voter registration drives
Partisan rallies
Key Questions
Are term limits for Congress a good idea? What are the pros and the cons?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

26. Issues in Congressional Campaigns
Incumbency Advantage
Vanishing marginals
Safe seats
A call for term limits
Relative Lack of Interest
Presidential coattails
Strategic politician hypothesis
vanishing marginals:
Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections.
safe seat:
Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other.
term limits:
Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office.
presidential coattails:
Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party.
strategic politician hypothesis:
Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress.
Key Questions
If Congress is supposed to be the branch closest to the people, why do congressional campaigns generate less interest than do presidential campaigns?
What might be the basis for your vote in the upcoming 2016 congressional elections?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

27. Reelection Rates of Incumbents in Congress, 1996–2012
Figure 10.4
Source:
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

28. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Loss of Seats in the House of Representatives by the President’s Party in Midterm Elections,
Figure 10.5
The president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections, sometimes with the consequence that the majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate changes hands.
Source: Gerhard Peters, “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President’s Party in Mid-Term Elections,” The American Presidency Project, Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters, Santa Barbara, CA: University of California, , edu/data/mid-term elections.php. © , Gerhard Peters, The American Presidency Project. Reproduced by permission. Data for 2014,
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

29. Elections, Campaigns, and Democracy
Need to set aside partisanship to assess American political system
Elections and campaigns ensure government responsiveness
Votes forge accountability
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

30. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission
Click picture to view video
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

31. Video Discussion Questions
Do you think average Americans notice who pays for political ads?
Should all elections be funded by the government? Why or why not?
Who benefits most from the Citizens United ruling? Who loses?
Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.