1. Advanced Session on Using the RAP: Macroeconomic
ILO Training Workshop:
“Social Protection: Assessment, Costing and Beyond”
Faculty of Economic, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok,
18 October 2012
Thaworn Sakunphanit
Deputy Director, Health Insurance System Research Office
Health System Research Institution, Ministry of Public Health

2. Structure of the RAP LABOUR MARKET MODEL
MACROECONOMIC
MODEL
GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE
SUMMARY AND RESULTS
DEMOGRAPHIC
LABOUR MARKET

3. Macroeconomics Concerned with the performance of entire economy
Using “aggregate” variables to reflect development of economy in term of:
Production
Value = volume x price
Distribution and redistribution
Consumption and wealth of nation
FLOW
STOCK
In Year t
STOCK
In Year t+1

4. The Example: Available Source for Macroeconomic Statistic / Projection
In Thailand: There are many institutions, which regularly produce statistics and projections
National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB):
System National Account (National Income)
Bank of Thailand
Economic and financial indicators
Ministry of Commerce:
Official Price Index
Ministry of Finance
Revenue, budget and spending of the Government
Short term economic projection
Research Institutions/Universities such as
Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)
Short term and long term economic projection
Related researches
In Thailand, there are many organizations or institutions which produce specific statistics and projections

5. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Aggregate measure of production
Projection of GDP have to separate
Volume effect
Price effect
Usually growth rate of volume and Price are different

6. Macroeconomic Projection
There are 2 alternative ways:
Using an projection from research institutes or authorities in your country or international organisations
Project it by yourself!
My recommendation is searching for an official population projection from an authority in your country, and use it.
If it is necessary to do the population projection by yourself. There are many method to project population from simple method to complexity method. The cohort component method is which is a popular one.

7. Using Forecast from Research Institutes
Source: Somchai Jitsuchon (2012)

8. Projection from RAP: Basic Formula 1
GDP at
Current Price
(value)
GDP At
Constant Price
(volume change)
GDP deflator
(Price change) = x

9. Projection from RAP: Basic Formula 2
GDP at constant price (Currency Unit) =
Productivity (Currency Unit / Person) x
Employment (Person)
Employment =
GDP
Productivity
Note: Productivity is efficiency of production.
It is usually measured in terms of output per worker or per hour

10. Projection from RAP: Basic Formula 3
Unemployment
Employment
Economic
Active
Population - =

11. Basic Formula 5: Consumer Prices
Usually economic growth lead to inflation of price of product.
Price Change of goods and services, which households consume is called “Consumer Price Index” (CPI in percentage)
We can assume that
CPI =
GDP deflator

13. GDP at constant Population Activity Rates Employed prices Labour-
M, F
Age 15 to 65
(t) to ( n)
Activity Rates
5 year age groups t)
Employed
By sector
GDP at constant
prices t
) to (n)
Economically
Active Population
to (
Labour productivity
t+1) to (n)
t+1)
to (n)
Unemployed
(t+1) to (n)
growth rates
Labour
productivity

14. Thank you for your attention
Q&A