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Using chemical weather forecasting models for real policy outcomes

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Presentation on theme: "Using chemical weather forecasting models for real policy outcomes"— Presentation transcript:

1 Using chemical weather forecasting models for real policy outcomes
Marcelo Mena-Carrasco Vice-Minister of the Environment, Chile

2 Air quality is the single most important environmental threat Chile has to face.
Air quality causes at least cases of premature mortality Our air quality management strategy will address 87% of this risk. 8 billion dollars in health effects per year. Today 10 million people in Chile breathe air that is above our standards.

3 All Chilean Central Valley is surrounded by large montain ranges.

4 National Air Quality Forecasting System for Chile.
Pablo Saide12, Marcelo Mena-Carrasco3, Laura Gallardo4, Pablo Hernández3, Rodrigo Delgado5, Sebastián Tolvett3, Gregory Carmichael1, Scott Spak1, Georg Grell6 Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Santiago, Chile CR2, Universidad de Chile Dirección Meteorologica de Chile, Santiago, Chile. NOAA, Boulder, Colorado.

5 Saide et al, Air quality measures must be taken to prevent accumulation. Same day measures are ineffective. 2 to 3 days of bad ventilation cause episodes.

6 2009-2013 Working to build credibility on dynamic modeling
Working to build credibility on dynamic modeling : Deployment.

7 WRF-Chem Forecast System 2km resolution from Santiago to Osorno.
CO to PM2.5 proxy. Temperature corrected concentrations due to wood burning stoves for heating. 3 days of forecast City by city weekend effect analysis. City by city duration of wood burning emissions. Point sources and mobile source used. Population density distributed emissions.

8 Tuesday: Forecast says Emergency by Friday
Tuesday: Forecast says Emergency by Friday. Wood burning ban for Wednesday

9 Wednesday. Model confirms emergency for Friday
Wednesday. Model confirms emergency for Friday. Wood burning ban for Thursday

10 Thursday: Weaker emergency forecasted for Friday
Thursday: Weaker emergency forecasted for Friday. Decree Pre-emergency for Friday. (20% car ban+ 50% industry stops+wood burning band.

11 Friday: Weak and very short pre-emergency occurs. Emergency averted.

12 2013 Preemergency and emergencies: 48. 2016: 14. 71% reduction.

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