1. Population Growth: Key Concepts
Factors affecting human population size
Human population problems
Managing population growth
Fecundity is the maximum potential of a population to reproduce

2. What is demography?
Demography: is the study of the size, composition, distribution of human population and the causes and consequences of changes.
How many people live where?
How long are you expected to live?
How many children are you likely to have

3. A dispersed population distribution is when a population is evenly distributed across an area. This is especially common in rural farming areas. The opposite is concentrated distribution, in which people are closely grouped in an urban area

4. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population
Change =
(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude birth rate (BR): per 1,000
Crude death rate (DR): per 1,000

5. The gross national product (gnp) per capita is the amount of goods and services produced by a country in one year divided by the amount of people living in the country

6. Average crude birth and death rates for various countries in 2004.

8. Births per thousand population
A guest worker is someone who leaves her or his country to work in another country without the intent to settle permanently. Typically, the labor is physical, and young people are best suited for the work
U.S. Birth Rates:
End of World War II
Demographic
transition
Depression
Baby boom
Baby bust
Echo baby boom 32 30 28 26 24 22 20
Births per thousand population 18 16 14
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year

9. How fast is the world’s population growing?
Birth rates and death rates coming down (death more quickly)
219,000 more daily (97% in developing countries)
80 Million per year
Exponential growth 1.25% down from 2.2% in 1963

10. The world’s 10 most populous countries
China and India 37% of world
8 Billion people by 2050

11. Describing Population Changes
The rule of 70 is an approximation of the doubling time for a population. For any population growing at a constant rate, divide 70 by the annual growth rate to determine the approximate amount of time it will take for the population to double
Doubling time: time in years it takes world to double….RULE OF 70
70/ percent changing
70/1.25 = 56 years to double
Africa growing at 2.8%...how long to double?

12. A choropleth map uses different colors to represent varying quantities in defined areas, such as states or countries. The quantities can represent percentages, densities, or rates

13. Describing Population Changes
Fertility: number of births that occur to an individual woman.
Replacement-level Fertility: the number of children a couple must have to replace themselves.
2.1 developed countries, 2.5 in developing countries
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman typically has during reproductive years.
Global Avg. = 2.8 (1.5 in developed, 3.1 developing down from2.5 and 6.5 in 1950)

14. Fertility rates for various countries.

15. Standard of living indicates the wealth and material goods available to each person in a country. Developed countries enjoy higher standards of living than developing countries; therefore, standard of living can indicate the level of development in a country
UN World Population Projections assuming TFR of 2.5 high, 2.0 medium and 1.5 low

16. How Have Fertility and Birth Rates Changed In the U.S.
1900: 76 million
2006: 300 million
Post WW II Baby Boom, 1946 to 1964 added 79 million TFR reached 3.7
2004: 2.9 million added 59% due to more births/deaths the rest from immigration
Projected: 2050, 420 million and 2100, 571 million

18. A J-curve suggests that population projections indicate exponential growth. The population line mimics the shape of the letter J, where population growth is initially slow then increases dramatically

19. U.S. Population Estimates

20. Comparing U.S., Mexico and Canada

21. The Demographic Transition
Fig p. 189
Low
High
Relative population size
(number per 1,000 per year)
Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transindustrial
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
growth rate
Increasing Growth
Very high
Decreasing
Zero
Negative
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Time

22. Major changes that took place in the U.S. 1900 - 2000

23. Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates
Children in Labor Force
Cost of raising and educating children
Availability of pension systems
Urbanization
Education and employment for women
Infant mortality rate
Average marrying age
Abortion
Availability of birth control

24. Most developed countries (MDC) have lower illiteracy rates than least developed countries (LDC). Illiteracy is defined as not being able to read or write. LDC are categorized by the United Nations based on socioeconomic development such as gross national income, health, education, nutrition, and economic vulnerability

25. Effectiveness of typical types of birth control.

26. Factors Affecting Death Rates
Life expectancy: the average number of years a
newborn is expected to live.
Infant mortality rate (IMR): number of babies
per 1,000 that die before 1st birthday.

27. Life expectancy
1955 to 2004: Increased 48 years to 67 years (76 in developed world, 65 in developing)
U.S. 77 years and projected 82 by 2050
Poorest countries of Africa only 49 years

28. Life expectancy Increased food supplies Better nutrition
Advances in medical field (vaccines, antibiotics)
Advances in sanitation
Safe water supplies

29. Infant Mortality
Infant mortality is viewed as the single measure of a society’s quality of life…health care and nutrition
1965 to 2004: drop 20/1000 to 7/1000 and 118/1000 to 61/1000 in developing world
U.S. 1900: 165/1000 to 2004: 7/1000

30. Infant Mortality 3 Factors Keep U.S.IM High:
Inadequate health care for poor and pregnant woman.
Drug Addiction among pregnant woman
High teen birth rate

31. U.S. Immigration
What do you think environmental impacts of immigration to U.S. might be?

32. Legal immigration to the U.S. from 1820 to 2001.
1989: large increase due to Act passed by Congress

33. Section 2: Population Age Structure Key Ideas
What are age structure diagrams? How can you use them?
What are some effect of population decline from reduced fertility?
What are some effects of population decline due to rises in death rates?

34. How does age structure afect population?
The number of people under age 15 is a major factor in determining future population.
33% developing world
17% developed world
1.9 billion set to enter reproductive age

35. Population Age Structure
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Male
Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Fig p. 184

36. U.S. Population by age 1900, 2000, and 2050 projected

37. Population structure by age and sex in developed and developing countries.

38. Comparison of key demographic indicators in 2004 for 3 countries…one highly developed, one moderately developed and one less developed.

39. Tracking the baby-boom generation in the U.S.

40. What are some impacts of population decline from reduced fertility?
40 Countries Populations Stabilized or Declining (growth rates below 0.3%) all in EU Expect Japan
UN Project by 2050 most developed countries (not U.S.)
Mean more of population shift to elderly

41. What are some impacts of population decline from reduced fertility?
Impacts Social and Economic of this decline:
Large elderly population
Increased medical costs
Less people in workforce
More stress on fewer taxpayers
Labor Shortages
All lead to political changes

42. What are some impacts of population from rise in death rates?
AIDS to cause premature deaths of 278 million from 2000 to 2050 (almost equal to U.S. population)…mostly in Africa
Remove productive workers
Increase in orphans

43. Global Aging

44. Section 3: Solutions Key Ideas
What are the advantages and disadvantages of reducing births?
How can economic development help reduce birth rates?
How can family planning help reduce birth rates and abortion rates and save lives?
How can empowering woman help reduce birth rates?

45. What are advantages and disadvantages of reducing births: Controversy
Can the world’s resources support an additional 2.5 billion by 2050?
Is the Earth overpopulated?
Carrying capacity
If yes, what should b done?
What is a sustainable population?

46. What are advantages and disadvantages of reducing births
No Need to Reduce Population
Life spans increasing
People free to have as many kids as want
Slowing population growth = economic decline.
Increased technology will provide answers.
Yes, we must reduce population
Basic human needs of people not being met
Larger population = larger human ecological footprint
Resources being used up rapidly

47. How can economic development reduce birth rates?
History indicates that as countries become economically developed, their birth and death rates line.
This happens in 4 stages:
Preindustrial
Transitional
Industrial
Postindustrial
Look up these stages (pg 188) for HW

48. How can economic development reduce birth rates?
Transition countries may get caught:
HIV/AIDS
Too much debt
Lack of skilled workers
Less economic assistance
Not enough or too much decrease in population

49. How can family planning reduce birth rates?
Family planning has been a major factor in reducing the number of birth and abortions around the world.
Provides educational and clinical services to help couples choose how many children they want

50. How can family planning reduce birth rates?
Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs in developing countries from 6 in 1960 to 3.1 in 2004.
Still 42% of pregnancies unplanned and 26% aborted.

51. How can empowering women reduce birth rates?
Women tend to have fewer kids if they are educated, have a paying job outside the home, an do not have their human rights suppressed.
Why do you think that is?

52. Typical workday for women in rural Africa…how does it compare to your average day?

53. Solutions: Influencing Population Size
Migration
Environmental refugees
Reducing births
Family planning
Empowerment of women
Economic rewards and penalties

54. Section 4: Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India
Generally disappointing results:
Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support

55. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China
Economic incentives
Free medical care
Preferential treatment
Locally administered
Very intrusive and coercive

57. Section 5: Cutting Global Population Growth
Family planning
Improve health care
Elevate the status of women
Increase education
Involve men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Sustainability