1. Wildfire: Past Trends and Future Threats
Tony Svejcar
Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center

2. Land on Fire –Gary Ferguson
Between 2000 and 2015 there were 10 fire seasons with more than a dozen mega-fires ( defined as more than 100,000 acres per fire).
There have been 4 years with more than 9 million acres burned in the US, all since 2006.

3. Acres Burned by Year

4. Reported 16 August 2015

10. Federal firefighting Costs (suppression only)
$203-$918 million years over $500 million
$284-$1,674 million years over $500 million
$908-$2,130 million all years over $500 million, and 8
of 10 over $1 billion

11. Gorte 2013. The rising cost of wildfire protection.
In the 1990s federal wildfire protection and suppression cost less than $1 billion annually. Since 2003 the cost of federal wildfire protection and suppression have averaged $3 billion/year. States spend an additional $1-2 billion.
Wildfire costs account for half of the US Forest Service budget, and 10% of the budget of all USDI agencies.
Only 16% of the private Wildland-Urban Interface has been developed.

12. The True cost of wildfire in the western US. 2010
The True cost of wildfire in the western US Western Forestry Leadership Coalition
They looked at Direct Costs, Rehabilitation Costs, Indirect Costs, and Additional Costs.
Analyzed 6 case studies
True cost of wildfires was 2 to 30 times the cost of suppression.
Suppression costs ranged from 3% to 53% of the total cost.

14. A Century of Change in a Ponderosa Pine Forest 1909, 1968 and 2015

15. On rangeland

16. Mauna Loa, Hawaii

17. Cheatgrass Fuel Loads Have Been Huge During Some Recent Years –Could Increasing CO2 have an impact?

18. Changes in the Western US
There are more than 300 million acres of western forests with unnaturally high fuel loads.
Human population has increased dramatically
Low density residences, recreational areas, and general human activity on western landscapes has increased dramatically.
Population has aged as well –increasingly susceptible to respiratory issues related to smoke.

19. Other Issues influencing fire frequency
Roads, and other breaks in fuel continuity.
Fire Suppression, especially after WWII
General attitude toward fire. Many people do not like fire, doesn’t matter that we live in fire-driven systems.
Atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to go up, and temperatures are likely to rise.

20. How to view the future?
Hard to influence many of the items mentioned on the last two slides (human population growth, climate).
It seems the main thing we can influence as land managers is fuel accumulation, plant community resilience, and post-fire response.