1. Setting Education Attainment Goals for Ohio
2015 Trustees Conference
Columbus State Community College
November 5, 2015
Stephanie welcomes folks and introduces Brett and Jill

2. GOAL 2025
Lumina’s Goal 2025 calls for 60% of Americans to hold a high quality degree or certificate by 2025.
Stephanie
Background—talk a bit about Lumina and the history behind goal In 2009, Lumina Foundation released its first strategic plan, based on the goal that 60% of Americans obtain a high-quality postsecondary degree or credential by 2025—a goal now called Goal 2025.

3. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Jill
The U.S. lags behind its global competitors in postsecondary attainment. 64% of young adults (ages 25-34) in South Korea have completed education beyond high school.
Along the bottom we see a number of developed countries
Along the side we see the percentage of adults with a degree. The orange color represents adults in the year age group. The blue represents individuals in the 25 to 34 year age group.
You see something very interesting here.
Look at where the United States, Israel and Canada are in the age group…30 years ago we were educating a higher percentage of our population than any other developed nation. We led the world in the education of our citizens
Look at where we are with the age group. We haven’t progressed. On the other hand, everyone else has improved in educating their citizens…and Korea, Japan and Canada are now doing much better than we are.
Those rates in Japan and Canada are approaching 60% and other countries are on a positive trajectory Rates for young adults in the U.S. have stagnated just above 40%
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

4. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Jill
Pew’s Economic Mobility Project has shown that a college degree not only increases the chances of upward economic mobility, but also reduces the chances of downward mobility Consider data from the last recession…. Adults with Associate’s or Bachelor's degrees experienced a smaller employment decline
Data sources: Pew Charitable Trusts Foundation and Current Population Survey

5. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Jill
The data shown on the previous slide is not a new phenomenon…the same trend was noted in previous economic downturns.
This graph shows the percentage change in employment by education level, over the past three economic downturns…beginning in 1989 and continuing through 2012.
The blue line is folks with a high school diploma or less. Over that 22 year period, there has been a 14% decrease in the number of folks in the workforce with a high school diploma or less…and you can see that whenever there is a recession (shown by the gray bars) those folks lose ground that they never make back up.
The red line is folks with associate’s degrees or some college (that is often a technical certificate). There has been a 42% increase in the number of folks in the workforce in this category
The green line shows individuals with a bachelor’s degree…we have an 82% increase in the number of individuals in the workforce with a bachelor’s degree
Note that even though there might be a slight dip during recessions, the employment of those with college bounces back.
Also note that the growth in jobs over the past two decades is entirely due to increased positions for college-educated workers…and that trend is projected to increase.

6. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL
Education pays…
Brett
And, as we’ve already seen, individuals with higher levels of education are more likely to be employed, keep their jobs during economic downturns and return to work after an economic downturn
But, Besides those personal financial gains for the college-educated individual, there are many other tangible benefits to society from individuals who complete post-secondary education
Federal, state and local governments gain increased tax revenues from college graduates and spend less on income support programs
College educated adults are more likely to receive health insurance and pension benefits from their employers
Adults with higher levels of education are more active citizens
College education leads to healthier lifestyles and reduced health care costs
College educated mothers spend more time with children
Source: College Board 2013 report, Education Pays (Sandy Baum, Jennifer Ma and Kathleen Payea

7. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Brett
Shows the change over time…shift to need for more educated workforce

8. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Brett…
talk about what economists (this is Georgetown data) are predicting…
There will be 55 million job openings in the economy through million in new, 31 million in replacement
Our rapidly evolving, complex economy is causing a surge in demand for skilled employees*. (Lumina Foundation) Two-thirds of all jobs created in this decade will require some form of postsecondary education** (Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce)

9. WHY SET AN ATTAINMENT GOAL?
Brett
Despite some progress, we are not on track to reach the 60% attainment goal…something needs to change

10. Setting Ohio’s Attainment Goal
Policy Priorities
Identify and analyze data needed to set statewide attainment goals
Establish statewide attainment goals, disaggregated by student demographics (age, race, poverty, geography), level of attainment (certificate/other recognized credentials, associate, bachelors, graduate and professional); and Jobs Ohio region
Define metrics and processes for monitoring progress toward reaching statewide higher education attainment goals
Create and implement a plan for communicating the goal and progress toward reaching the goal to stakeholders, including process for maintaining momentum and managing expectations over time
Stephanie
Give background on Attainment Goal Project
ODHE, IUC, OACC, Philanthropy Ohio put together a plan identifying these policy priorities…
Received a small grant from Lumina Foundation and some additional money from the Gates Foundation via Philanthropy Ohio to fund this work between now and July 1 of 2016
Introduce 4 priorities

11. Setting Ohio’s Attainment Goal
Working Group made up of representatives from stakeholder groups
Education (faculty, advisors and administrators from colleges, universities, technical centers, ABLE programs)
Government (ODHE, ODE, JobsOhio, governor’s office, Job and Family Services, Rehabilitation and Corrections, state agencies representing veterans and service members, Ohio’s general assembly)
Business, Philanthropy and Community Partners
Stephanie
Overview of working group members and responsibilities

12. Setting Ohio’s Attainment Goal
Timeline
September-December, 2015; identify and analyze relevant data
February, 2016; statewide kick-off with stakeholders
March, 2016; working group retreat to set attainment goals
May 2016; metrics and processess for monitoring progress are established
June, 2016; communications plan developed and implemented
Stephanie
Summary of the timeline for the work

13. Setting Ohio’s Attainment Goal
Critical data to be collected and analyzed will include:
Projected workforce needs in the six Jobs Ohio Regions of the state broken down by credential (degree level, certificates/other credentials of value)
Gaps in attainment across state populations
Between projected workforce needs and current capacity among all groups
For special populations within the state (economically disadvantaged, African American, Hispanic, Native American, adult, urban, rural)
Need to address attainment gaps in order to meet attainment goals
Jill
Right now we are at the data gathering and analysis phase

14. Just under 38% of adults in Ohio have a post-secondary degree
Ohio’s current status
Jill
Just under 38% of adults in Ohio have a post-secondary degree
Data sources: Lumina Foundation and 2013 American Community Survey

15. Ohio’s current status The degree attainment rate has increased
Jill
The degree attainment rate has increased
2.6 percentage points since 2008
Data sources: Lumina Foundation and 2013 American Community Survey

16. Ohio’s current status There are large disparities
Jill
There are large disparities
in degree attainment rates by race
Data sources: Lumina Foundation and 2013 American Community Survey

17. OHIO’S CURRENT STATUS Jill
Range from a low of 13% (Holmes) to 61% (Delaware)

18. PROJECTED NEEDS – H.S. Brett
Georgetown projections…high school, some college, associates degree

19. PROJECTED NEEDS – Assoc./Cert./Some
Brett
Georgetown projections…high school, some college, associates degree

20. PROJECTED NEEDS – Bachelor’s
Brett
Georgetown projections for bachelor’s and higher

21. PROJECTED NEEDS - Graduate
Brett
Georgetown projections for bachelor’s and higher

22. PROJECTED NEEDS – Gaps
Brett
pulling it together….

23. MOVING FORWARD Continuing data gathering for current Ohio attainment
Disaggregated by JobsOhio region
Disaggregated by credential level
Disaggregated by demographics
Work with Governor’s Office of Workforce Transformation and JobsOhio to assess future workforce needs
Brett

24. HOW YOU CAN HELP Attend Stakeholder Meeting
Communicate goals and their importance within your community
Understand the demographic make up of your student body
Know student success data for your campus
Support data-based student success initiatives
Stephanie

25. Stephanie
I’ve added the next three slides just as examples of things that you can be thinking about related to student success on your campus.
I’m probably preaching to the choir here…but the students on our campuses are not the students who were on the campuses when we went to school.
They are balancing multiple responsibilities (work and family) and because of that they are far more likely to go to school part-time
They are also older, more racially diverse and facing greater financial barriers
Even though we may know this intellectually, many campuses are still structured as if year old full-time students are the majority. Student success policies will need to include things like offering more convenient class times, block scheduling, easing access to advising, financial aid, child care and family-friendly housing.

26. KNOW YOUR STUDENTS Stephanie
A huge inequity that must be addressed is the lack of success that we see for students who are economically disadvantaged.
This slide shows the percentage of the US population with a bachelor’s degree by age 24 based on family income in quartiles
the blue bars are estimates from 1970 and
the red bars from 2011.
As you can see, we increased the percentage for kids from all the quartiles, but the increases have been the biggest for kids from the wealthiest families…so gap between the outcomes have actually increased over time.
70% of kids from the wealthiest families will have bachelor’s degrees by the time they are 24
10% of kids from the poorest families will have bachelor’s degrees by the time they are 24

27. KNOW YOUR STUDENTS Stephanie
And it is not just about aptitude or being ready for college
Again, we have students divided into income ranges…this time just three…low, middle and high
But now we have them subdivided base on their aptitude…green bars are high aptitude kids, red bars and middle aptitude kids, and blue bars are low aptitude kids.
A high income low aptitude student has about the same likelihood of achieving a 4 year degree as a low income high aptitude kid.

28. Discussion Stephanie and All In closing,
If we are going to make significant progress toward higher attainment in Ohio, we are going to need to start improving completion among the populations that have not been successful in our colleges and universities…
Those who are:
Economically disadvantaged
African American and Hispanic
Going to school part-time.