1. Peter Conlong Justice Analytical Services Scottish Government
If crime is falling, why is the Scottish prison population still so high?
Peter Conlong
Justice Analytical Services
Scottish Government

2. Long term trends in crime and the prison population
Crime starts to drop after 1991
…but prison population growth accelerates

3. Breakdown of crimes and offences

4. Trends in non-sexual crimes of violence

5. Trends in male prison population

6. Population by crime type: men

7. Total population

8. Housebreaking/ shoplifting
By crime type
Serious violent crime
Drugs & weapons & CAPJ
Housebreaking/ shoplifting
Common assault
Sexual crimes

9. Influence of crime trends

10. Influence of clear-up rates

11. Impact of court conviction rate

12. …add in % custodial sentences

13. Changes in sentence length

14. …if crime hadn’t changed:

15. …if crime hadn’t changed:

16. Trends in female prison population

17. Population by crime type

18. Total population

19. By crime type Drugs & CAPJ Serious violent crime Shoplifting
Common assault

20. Influence of crime trends

21. Influence of clear-up rates

22. Impact of court conviction rate

23. …add in % custodial sentences

24. Changes in sentence length

25. …if crime hadn’t changed:

26. …if crime hadn’t changed:

27. Life sentences – average time served

28. Estimated number of prison places associated with convictions for domestic abuse

29. Conclusions Rise in prison population largely due to:
Improvements in clear-up rates and conviction rates
Convictions for previously ‘hidden’ crime types such as domestic abuse and sexual offences
Upward drift in average sentence lengths (esp. housebreaking, handling an offensive weapon, domestic abuse, and murder)
Post : crime drop outweighed system-driven effects

30. Reality check…

31. Reality check…