1. Jersey’s Economic performance & Labour Market

2. Overview Economic performance 2000 - 2012 Labour Market: June 2013
Official Statistics in Jersey
Who we are & what we do
Inform evidence-based Policy development
Economic performance
Gross Value Added, GVA
Total and by sector
Economic standard of living
Labour Market: June 2013
Total
public and private sectors
Unemployment: registered and ILO

3. Who we are: Background: States of Jersey Statistics Unit
States of Jersey’s “National Statistics Office”
Part of Chief Minister’s Department
but professionally independent
Publicly accountable to the Statistics Users Group

4. Robust Official Statistics => Evidenced-based policy
Economic:
Inflation: retail & house price indices
Labour market: employment; earnings
Performance: GVA, overall and by sector
Social:
Annual Social Survey, JASS
Household Expenditure Survey, HES
Income Distribution Survey, IDS SD
Eg IDS -> inform new income support system
Popn model – use english death rates (GAD involved – appropriate for Jersey). Fertility rate for Jersey (1.57). Migration variables are from Census analysis. Also modelling heads of hosuehold inmigrants and their households they bring with them from a study done by Oxera.
- used by Gary purcell jones, modelling dementia in older population
- used by Soc Sec in working on pension provision longer term
- used by planning working to ensure supply of housing
The Census & annual updates
Total population and Net migration
Modelling and projections
Population:

5. Publications Jersey in Figures
See Release Schedule at ww.gov.je/statistics
Publications
Economic
Retail Price Index
House Price Index
Average Earnings Index
UK/Jersey Price Comparisons
Social & demographic
The Census
Population updates & projections
Jersey Annual Social Survey
Household Spending and Income
GVA and GNI
Labour Market: employment
Survey of Financial Institutions
Business Tendency Survey
Retail Sales Index
Registered Unemployment
Housing Needs
Heritage and Culture
Youth Survey KG
Core stats – mainly economic but also Household surveys (JASS, HSIS)
Stats publications – compendiums of data
Surveys run by stats on behalf of other departments
Housing needs – planning
HOS – HR SOJ
Heritage – heritage/planning
Supermarket – EDD
Youth service
Youth??
Jersey Economic Digest
Jersey in Figures

6. Measuring Jersey’s Economy Gross Value Added (GVA) 2012

7. Economic performance: measure by Gross Value Added, GVA
Gross operating surplus (business “profits”) +
Compensation of employees
wages, salaries, bonuses
social security, pension contributions
Mixed Income (sole traders)

8. GVA in constant values of income (2003 values)
total GVA: lowest in real terms since at least 1998
Non-finance GVA > Finance GVA for last three years

9. Annual % change in GVA in real terms

10. GVA by sector in 2012

11. Sectors: annual real term change in GVA 1999-2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 (r)
2012 (p)
Agriculture
-5%
-10% 2%
-3% 3% 4% 5%
-14%
-15%
Manufacturing
-1%
-7%
-9%
-6% 1%
-8%
Electricity, gas & water
-4% 8%
-13%
-18%
Construction 7% 0%
Wholesale & retail
-2%
Hotels, restaurants & bars
Transport, storage & communication
Financial services 9%
11%
-11%
Other business activities (excluding rental)
13%
Public administration
Total GVA

12. GVA per capita indicator of economic standard of living 2012: GVA £3
GVA per capita indicator of economic standard of living 2012: GVA £3.6 billion; population 99,000 => GVA per capita £36,700 Population and real term GVA from 2001 to 2012

13. GVA per capita In real terms: 2008-2012 : decreased by a fifth (down by 21%)

14. Jersey Labour Market June 2013 Private + Public sectors
Statistics Unit 14

15. Total and Private sector (June of each year, 1997-2013)
Total employment (56,290);
down 110 compared with June 2012 & down 620 compared with June 2011
total employment relatively flat during last five years (June June 2013)
Statistics Unit 15

16. Total and private sector headcount (weighted 12-month moving averages)

17. Annual Percentage Change in Total Employment
Since June 2012, marginal falls in total employment of less than 1%
June 2013: 0.2% decrease compared with June 2012

18. Sectoral breakdown
Statistics Unit 18

19. Private sector Statistics Unit
Total = 49, (net decline of 270 employees since June 2012)
Net annual decrease driven by:
Wholesale and retail: -450
Finance:
Construction:
Fulfilment (270 employees in June 2013):
- 180 annually
less than a third of that recorded in 2009 & 2010
- 700 compared in last 3 years
In comparison
Hotels, restaurants & bars: compared with June 2012
Private Sector Service Industries: compared with June 2012
Statistics Unit 19

20. Finance sector : Dec 2005 – June 2013
Figure 4 – Six-month changes in Finance sector employment,
Total employment within the Finance sector (12,400) was;
down 190 on an annual basis
down more than 1,000 since peak seen in 2008
lowest since 2006
Decrease driven by Banking subsector ;
down 170 since June 2012
down 1,110 since June 2008
at lowest level since at least 1998
Statistics Unit 20

21. Residential Qualifications (under Reg. of Unds.)
Private sector: 86% LQ; % j-cat; % NQ
% NQ by Sector
18%
Statistics Unit 21

22. j-category employees June 2013:
Private sector j-category employees - June of each year
June 2013:
1,200 j-category employees in the private sector
up 30 compared with June 2012 => highest level to date
more than double that recorded 10 years ago
Public sector j cats (560)
Statistics Unit 22

23. Unemployment Statistics Unit
Registered & Actively Seeking Work in June 2013 :
seasonally adjusted : substantially flat over the last 5 months
more than doubled over last four years
The ILO unemployment rate in June 2013 was estimated at 5.7% (3,200 people)
At the census (April 2011) the ILO rate was 4.7%
Statistics Unit 23

24. ASW : last three decades24

25. Statistics Unit Total employment (56,290);
Summary
Total employment (56,290);
down 110 compared with June 2012
(Private sector down 270 ; Public sector up 150)
Private sector (49,360);
down 800 from peak of June 2011
similar to 2009 and 2010
Active employers in Jersey (7,040)
up 170 on an annual basis
driven by increase in single person businesses (up +130 since June 2012)
Sectoral;
Wholesale & retail: compared with June 2012
(Fulfilment: -180 annually)
Construction: compared with June 2012
Finance: annually & more than -1,000 since peak of 2008
driven by Banking: since June 2012 ; over -1,100 since 2007
Hotels, restaurants & bars &
Private Sector Service Industries: each up more than 200 compared with June 2012.
The ILO unemployment rate in June 2013 was 5.7%, corresponding to 3,200 people unemployed
Statistics Unit 25

26. GVA per capita comparison with UK
GVA per capita 2012: Jersey £36,700 UK £21,900
=> Jersey about two-thirds greater GVA per capita than UK
Real-term change Jersey down 21% UK down 7%
UK regions (2011)
London £ 35,600
South East £ 22,400
England £ 21,300
Scotland £ 20,600
South West £ 19,100
Other regions £ 17,000 - £19,000
Northern Ireland £ 16,500
North East England £ 15,800
Wales £ 15,700

27. GNI in 2012 Current year values GNI was £4.0 billion
down 1% nominally on 2011
Constant year
Down 4% in real terms on 2010
NB: GNI is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in transfers of money into the Island which are influenced by performance of other economies;

28. Locally and Non-Locally qualified employees
Annual change in private sector employment by residential qualification
Private Sector Employment
Locally qualified: total of 42,000 (up 270 compared with June 2012)
highest level for at least10 years
Non-Locally qualified: total of 6,160 (down 570 compared with June 2012)
lowest June figure for at least 10 years
Statistics Unit 28

29. Employment by nationality
June 2013:
69% of contributions from Jersey/UK nationals
A8 country nationals (3,220) down 260 compared with June 2012
driven by reduction in Polish nationals (down 240)
Portuguese nationals (5,990) up 80 annually

30. Long-term ASW 30