1. Manufacturing for Sustainability National Academy of Engineering
June 11, 2012

2. 300 Years of Regional Population Growth
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin Am. & Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
World
1750
106,000,000
502,000,000
163,000,000
16,000,000
2,000,000
791,000,000
1800
107,000,000
635,000,000
203,000,000
24,000,000
7,000,000
978,000,000
1850
111,000,000
809,000,000
276,000,000
38,000,000
26,000,000
1,262,000,000
1900
133,000,000
947,000,000
408,000,000
74,000,000
82,000,000
6,000,000
1,650,000,000
1950
221,000,000
1,402,000,000
547,000,000
167,000,000
172,000,000
13,000,000
2,521,000,000
1998
749,000,000
3,585,000,000
729,000,000
504,000,000
305,000,000
30,000,000
5,901,000,000
2050
1,766,000,000
5,268,000,000
628,000,000
392,000,000
46,000,000
8,909,000,000
source: United Nations, "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, Vol.1" (United Nations, New York). United Nations, (forthcoming). "World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision" (United Nations, New York).
World Population Trends
World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision UN, 2011
Population (millions)
Population in 2050 (millions)
Population in 2100 (millions)
1950
1980
2011
Low
Medium
High
Constant
2,532
4,453
6,974
8,122
9,306
10,614
10,943
6,177
10,125
15,805
26,844
In % of the worlds population lived in China & India
By 2021, India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world

3. Rapid Urbanization
50% More Energy by 2020
Equals 80 million new urban dwellers a year every year during the transition
Over the next 2 generations the equivalent of 1,000 great cities (>5M) will be built-an average of 20 each year
Source: National Academies, (2002). Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability.

4. Consuming class going from 1/6th world population to ½ of a larger global population

5. Resource Extraction
Self forming bio films and movements towards ubiquitous bio-based electonrics

6. Minimum product performance standards and labelling
Defra is promoting innovation by encouraging the removal of the least sustainable products from the market.  
As required by section 2(h) of Executive Order 13514, agencies shall ensure that 95 percent of applicable new contract actions for products and services advance sustainable acquisition

8. What Companies Are We Talking About?

10. FOOD ENERGY INTERMEDIATES BIO-BASED FEEDSTOCKS FINISHED GOODS
Human, Animal, Feed
INTERMEDIATES
Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Enzymes
ENERGY
Fuel, Electricity Transportation (Land, Sea, Air)
FINISHED GOODS
Apparel, Construction, Paper, Packaging, Electronics, Toys, Auto
BIO-BASED FEEDSTOCKS
Aquatic & Land Based
GLOBAL TRENDS
Population, Affluence, World Hungry, Corporate Sustainability
Climate, Water Scarcity, Social Justice, Land Use, National Security
EXOGENOUS DRIVERS
Shifting Resources, Unintended Consequences, Resiliency, Markets
SYSTEM FEEDBACKS

11. Who is going to lead future resource research & development?
Microalgae including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria are possible game-changers
Microalgae, including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria have been identified as a potential game changer for the production of biofuels and bio-based products.
Statement that a single platinum-rich space rock 500 meters wide contains the equivalent of all the platinum group metals ever mined in human history 8,900 know near Earth Asteroids. A Cal-tech Keck Institute for Space Studies indicated a 500-ton near earth asteroid could be snagged and placed into the moon’s orbit by 2025 at a cost of $2.6B
Canadian mining company Nautilus Minerals wants to start mining gold and copper deposits under the Bismarck Sea by 2013 other player is Australia Bluewater Metals
Hot springs in the seafloor at high temperaturs reacts with seafloor rocks react chemically and then mixes with colder seawater, pH change and temp. change falls back as a mineral
Planetary Mining
Companies like Planetary Resources looking at Platinum group & precious metals
Deep Sea Mining
Microalgae, including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria are possible game-changers

12. A Call for a National Sustainability Computation Center to Support Industry

13. We can not be competitive just as a Knowledge Economy - rather there are critical feedbacks between knowledge & technology deployment. We need to focus on both as a nation.

14. Contact Jay.Golden@Duke.edu http://center.sustainability.duke.edu
Associate Professor of the Practice for Sustainable Systems Analysis
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Pratt School of Engineering
Division of Earth & Ocean Science Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University