1. World Meteorological Organization
Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme

2. We cannot avoid hazards

3. …but we can Prevent Them from Becoming Disasters
Source: World Resources Institute

4. Agenda Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events
Reducing / Managing Risks of Disasters
Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction
Assessing Capacities, Requirements and Priorities at National and Regional Levels
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Action Plan

5. Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events

6. Number of Disasters (1980-2005)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Nearly 90% of disasters are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

7. Loss of Human Life ( )
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Nearly 70% of loss of life are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

8. Economic Losses ( )
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Nearly 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards.

9. 90% of Disasters are Hydro-Meteorological (Number of Events, 1980-2005)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

10. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Loss of life, 1980-2005)
Heatwave:
Earthquake:
Windstorms:
Earthquake:
Tsunami:
Flooding:
Windstorms:
Epidemics/famine:
Landslides:
Windstorms:
Flooding:
Drought:
Earthquake:
Epidemics/famine:
Tsunami:
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

11. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Economic Losses in billion USD, 1980-2005)
Flooding: 69
Windstorms: 39
Earthquake: 50
Flooding: 194
Flooding: 8
Windstorms: 30
Windstorms: 90
Earthquake: 10
Drought: 3
Earthquake: 170
Earthquake: 11
Flooding: 23
Wild Fires: 18
Drought: 5
Flooding: 3
Windstorms: 3
Drought: 11
Earthquake: 9
Tsunami: 4
Windstorms: 14
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

12. Conclusions from IPCC WG II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability)
Phenomenon
Likelihood
Major projected impacts
Increased frequency of heat waves
Very likely
Increased risk of heat-related mortality
Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events
Increased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases
Area affected by drought increases
Likely
Increased risk of food and water shortage
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases
Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water- and foodborne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level
Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure
Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence
Very likely 90 to 99% probability
Likely 66 to 90% probability

13. Climate Change and Disaster Management
Clearly, one of the most threatening aspects of global climate change is the likelihood that extreme weather events will become more variable, more intense and more frequent.
The International Strategy for Natural Disaster Reduction (ISDR) estimates that the global cost of natural disasters is anticipated to exceed $300 billion annually by the year 2050 without aggressive disaster reduction measures. Steps taken today to reduce the impacts of weather hazards will provide opportunities for regions to become better prepared for future climate change challenges.
As a first step to reducing climate change disaster risks, a “no regrets approach” that reduces vulnerability to near-term hazards becomes an even more effective strategy for reducing long-term risks.
The barriers to managing the risks associated with current climate variability are the same barriers that will inhibit regions and nations in addressing the future increases in the complexity and uncertainty of risk due to climate change. As a result, the “no regrets” adaptation lessons learned from current practices, along with a commitment to forensic studies and learning from failures, will constitute a critical component of ongoing climate change adaptation. Other adaptation actions under climate change conditions will be limited by considerable uncertainty in projections on future extremes and by the difficulties of retrofitting or changing the existing built environment

14. WMO Scientific and international research Programmes - Advancing the knowledge of natural hazards and their changing patterns
Northern Atlantic Oscillation
La Niña
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation

15. Economic Losses are on the Way Up
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

16. While Casualties related to Hydro-Meteorological Disasters are Decreasing
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

17. Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Disasters Impact across many Sectors, Setting Back Socio-Economic Development by Years if not Decades
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Food security
Transport
Industry
Health

18. Reducing / Managing Risks of Disasters

19. What do we Mean by Risk ? Risk
Hazard
Risk
Vulnerability
Intensity
HIGHER RISK
Vulnerability
Frequency

20. Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Risk Management Involves a Wide Range of Decisions and Actions
Disaster Risk Management
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Historical hazard data
and analysis
 Changing hazard trends
 Vulnerability assessment
 Risk quantification
 Sectoral planning
 Early Warning Systems
Emergency
Preparedness planning
 Education and training
 Financial tools
Insurance
Weather derivatives
Cat bonds

21. Need for Partnerships and Coordination Among Different Players

22. Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance, Organizational and Operational Mechanisms

23. Shifting Disaster Risk Management from Reaction to Prevention
Traditionally, disaster risk management approach has been focused on emergency response and recovery measures
World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) 168 countries adopted Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
Kobe, Japan, January 2005
Shifting disaster risk management to a more comprehensive approach, involving
prevention
preparedness
contingency planning
emergency response and recovery measures.

24. Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction

25. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Provide products and services, 24/7
Meteorological, hydrological, climate and hazard information and mapping
Early Detection, Forecasts and Warnings (next hour to climate time scales)
Basically, NMHSs have two windows to act in the disaster risk management process: (1) before disasters, through prevention and preparedness; and (2) during and after disasters, during relief, recovery and reconstruction.
In most countries, natural hazard policies traditionally focus on emergency response or crises management actions that minimize the impacts during a disaster and provide immediate relief and support to victims. Although disaster response is important, it fails to address the causes of disaster losses.
Effective management of disasters also requires risk reduction actions. The four pillars, or more, of disaster risk reduction can be simplified to: 1) mitigation, 2) preparedness, 3) emergency response and 4) recovery actions and plans. The combination or “disaster risk management”, tries to minimize existing vulnerabilities, to prevent or to limit adverse impacts of hazards and to ensure that comprehensive plans are in place to react to emergencies and to recover after disaster impacts.
Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, droughts, forest fires, locust swarms, etc…

26. Return on Investment in Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services : 10 to 1
WMO Secretary-General, Madrid, 19 March 2007
Building capacities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services is an investment toward national development.

27. WMO Scientific and international research Programmes - Advancing the knowledge of natural hazards and their changing patterns
Northern Atlantic Oscillation
La Niña
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation

28. WMO Coordinated Networks in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction: Observation & Communication
Coordinated Satellite Activities
Global Observing System
Global Telecommunication System

29. Regional Coordinated Networks in Support of Early Warnings, Specialized Services and Training

30. Example of Regional Cooperation: WMO Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System
Regional cooperation (6 Regional Centres) in support of national tropical cyclone early warning systems

31. Supporting National Capacities for Disaster Risk Management
24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country
National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services
Needs, requirements,
Feedback
Products and Services

32. Availability of historical and real-time hazard databases
Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Identification
Availability of historical and real-time hazard databases
Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies
Severity , Frequency, Location, Timing
Statistical analysis of historical data
GIS/GPS mapping
Probabilitic climate models – Forward looking trend analysis
Emerging technologies (factors in changing patters due to climate variablity and change)

33. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Reduction
Input into sectoral planning (zoning, development, etc)
Early warning systems
Probabilistic forecasting and warnings from next hour to longer climate timescales
Integration of risk information into warning messages
Communication and dissemination
Partnerships, joint planning and joint training with national agencies responsible of emergency preparedness and response
Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations

34. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Transfer
Government
Private sector
products
provider
example
Insurance
Weather derivatives
Catastrophe bonds
Crop / flood insurance
Agricultural and drought derivatives
Insurance for property and casualty
Micro-insurance
Weather derivatives
Catastrophe bonds for hurricanes

35. Assessing Capacities, Requirements and Priorities at National and Regional Levels

36. Systematic Assessment of Capacities, Requirements and Priorities
By country groupings:
Hazards affecting the countries
Role of National Meteorological Services for disaster risk reduction
Capacities to deliver products and services in support of disaster risk reduction
Challenges, requirements and opportunities
Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction
At regional level:
Regional strategy for disaster risk reduction
Opportunities for partnerships

37. Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey
44/48
92 %
18/22
82 %
25/34
74 %
10/12
83 %
14/19
74 %
24/52
54 %
139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded
Least developed
countries:
25/50
50 %
Developing
countries:
85/137
54 %

38. Major Hazards Affecting the Countries from the Country-Level Survey

39. Common Challenges for Disaster Risk Reduction
Governance:
Demonstrating socio-economic benefits of prevention measures
Organizational coordination:
Partnerships, definition of roles and responsibilities of every stakeholders
Technical:
Telecommunications, internet access, computer hardware and software
Observing networks development and sustainability
Hazard data: data management, methodologies for data rescue, quality assurance, statistical analysis of hazard characteristics and mapping
Specialised forecasting services in support of risk reduction
Education and Training:
Technical training and capacity development
Joint multi-disciplinary training with multiple agencies
Public outreach programmes
Capacities are highly variable from country to country

40. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Action Plan

41. WMO Mechanisms to Support Members' Scientific and Technical Capacities
Thematic
Regional
8 Technical Commissions
2 World Meteorological
Centres (WMC)
Basic Systems (CBS)
Instruments and Methods of Observations (CIMO)
Hydrology (CHy)
Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM)
Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)
Climatology (CCl)
6 Regional Associations (RA)
Members' National
Meteorological
and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs)
40 Regional Specialised
Meteorological Centres (RSMC)
10 Programmes
Applications of Meteorology (AMP)
Atmospheric Research and Environment (AREP)
Education and Training (ETR)
Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR)
Regional (RP)
Technical Cooperation (TCO)
World Climate (WCP)
Space (WSP)
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DPM)
World Weather Watch (WWW)
30 Regional Meteorological
Training Centres (RMTC)
PARTNERS

42. WMO DRR Programme Vision:
Enhanced contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
For protection of lives, livelihoods and property
Through strengthening of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services technical capacities and cooperation in disaster risk reduction
At national to international levels
The EC Advisory Group have proposed a vision for the programme to enhance contributions of NMHSs for protection of lives, livlihood and property, through strengthening NMHSs capacities and cooperation at national to international levels.

43. Strategic Foundation Strategic Goals of WMO in Disaster Risk Reduction
Hyogo Framework for Action
(World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Jan 2005)
WMO
Strategic Plan
(Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts)
Strategic Goals of WMO
in Disaster Risk Reduction
The strategic foundation of the WMO DPM Strategic Goals is the priority areas of the Hyogo Framework For Action that fall directly under the mandate of WMO and NMHSs. As you all recall, HFA was adopted by 168 countries during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, as the guiding principals for the implementation of disaster risk reduction at national to international levels with a strong focus on prevention and preparedness.

44. WMO Strategic Goals for DRR
Strengthening and sustainability of early warning systems
Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment
Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements
Integration of NMHSs' products and services in disaster risk reduction,
Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships at national to international level with disaster risk reduction organizations
Public outreach campaigns
The EC Advisory Group proposed 5 strategic goals for the DPM Programme, which can be found in the Report Part of the document under item 5 of the report. Key words of the strategic goals are highlighted for your consideration: EWS, Support of risk Assessment, Improved products driven by user requirements, enhanced cooperation with disaster risk management agencies and finally public outreach.

45. Linking DRR Strategic Goals to Action
Implementation through regional and national projects, with following end results:
Modernized NMHSs systems.
Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.
Strengthened hazard analysis and risk assessment capacities.
Strengthened cooperation of NMHSs with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.
Trained NMHS
Sustained capacities over time
Enhanced awareness ministerial and public
On the basis of a consultative process approved by EC Member and regional requirements and priorities have been identified systematically in disaster risk reduction and used to develop a DPM Action plan is being developed based on synergistic activities of WMO Programmes, Commissions, Members and Partners . This Action plan is being implemented through regionla and national projects with the following end results,

46. Examples of DRR Crosscutting Projects initiated in 2007
Country / Region
Multi-Hazard Early Warning
France and Shanghai Mega-City
Severe Weather Forecasting
South East Africa
Global Flash Flood Guidance System
Central America, followed by Africa
Flood Risk Assessment
To be initiated in 6 countries
Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment
South East Europe & Africa
Public Education and Outreach
Global
Other projects are also being considered for

47. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: Deliverables (1/2)
(c)
New Technical Guidelines
Disaster Preparedness and Response Systems and Crisis Management
(a) Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes
(b) Cost-Benefits Analysis D A T
Warnings, specialised forecasts, bulletins and other services
Protection of
lives, livelihood
and
property
Inititiated in France and Shanghai.
Others to be considered:
USA
Canada
Colombia
Italy
Poland
Bengladesh
Cuba
Media
Internet
Internet
SMS
Other

48. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: Classification of Warnings to be Addressed (2/2)
Early Detection, Monitoring and Warning Services
Develop hazard monitoring and early warning services
Type I
Type II
Type III
Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMHS contribute
e.g. locust, heat-health and other epidemics, volcanic ash transport, man-made hazards
Hazard fully under the mandate of NMHS
e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone
Hazard under joint mandate of NMHS and other agencies
e.g. floods, air pollution, etc.
Level of coordination between NMHS and other agencies

49. Severe Weather Forecasting
Initiated in 2006 in Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe
Tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall, strong wind
In 2008, will expand to other countries in the region and involve the national civil security services

50. Global Flash Flood Warning Systems
To develop flash flood warning capabilities, in priority in developing Countries with little resources.
Countries: countries in Central America (2007), South East Asia (2007), Southern Africa (early 2008), Central Asia - Middle East (later part of 2008)

51. Supports data archiving, analysis and use.
Flood and Drought Risk Assessment: Partnership with the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP)
Improve capacities for risk assessment methodologies and their utilisation in decision making.
Supports data archiving, analysis and use.
DROUGHT
FLOOD

52. Public Outreach Programmes: Roles of National Meteorological Services in Supporting Different Aspects of DRR
Joint publications and curricula involving experts from scientific and education background
Targeted at all aspects of disaster risk management, with particular focus on governance, institutional and operational capacities

53. Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters
For more information please contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel
Fax .