1. India's INDC for transport and the 2 degree C stablization target
Subash Dhar
Priyadarshi R. Shukla
Minal Pathak
International Conference of Low Carbon Asia
23-24 November 2016
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur

2. Annual Total Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
UNEP GAP REPORT, 2016

3. 20C Budget (AR5): Closing Mitigation Window
IPCC AR5 WGI SPM

4. What to do to limit warming below 20 C?

5. Sectoral Mitigation Opportunities through Energy Efficiency
UNEP GAP REPORT, 2016

6. Trends in Vehicle Ownership India

7. India’s INDC: Transport Actions
Focus Area
Actions
Rail Transport
Enhancing share of rail from 36 % to 45 %
Dedicated Freight Corridors to reduce 457 million tonnes of CO2 over a 30-year period
Coastal shipping & inland waterways
implementation of a 1,620-km navigable channel for large commercial ships
waterway transportation grid connecting waterways to roads, railways, and ports.
to improve and augment capacity in India’s ports, promoting efficient transportation of goods.
a 7,000 km road network along the coast to provide further connectivity to the ports.
Mass transit
Urban transport to focus on moving people - investments in mass transit
Vehicle efficiency
Efficiency targets for new cars
Improve fuel standards
Alternate Fuels and Vehicles
Incentivizing hybrid and electric vehicles in the country
Promoting Biofuels

8. Scenario Architecture
Scenarios
Business-as-usual
Continuation of existing socio-economic development
INDC Scenario
implementation of transport INDC targets
INDC+ 2  C scenario
Implementation of INDCs
Aligned with global 2  C pathway
Carbon price

9. Integrated Modeling Framework
DATABASES
DATABASES
Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE/GCAM
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM Strategic Database
(Strategic Database)
Model
AIM (SDB)
(SDB)
End Use Demand
End Use Demand
Model
AIM SNAPSHOT Model
Modal Choice Model

10. Mitigation Opportunities
Sustainable Freight Strategy
Sustainable Mobility Strategy
Fuel Economy Strategy

11. CO2 reduction (Million Tons)

12. Conclusions Feedback and questions?
Timing: Closing window of opportunity
Innovation cycle
Behavior and institutions
Cost-benefit Framing: Looking through ethical lens
Irreversibility
Uncertainty
Equity (Inter and intra generational)
Reframing
Bottom-up country driven assessments to meet global goals
Prevent creating new lock-ins
Implementation Focus (Technology cooperation
Feedback and questions?