1. Climate Change in Nova Scotia: Are We Ready?
An Oceanographer’s Perspective
12th Annual Elisabeth Mann Borgese Ocean Lecture
Blair Greenan
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
8 June 2016

2. Outline Regional Overview Ocean Climate Change An Adaptation Tool
Ready for What?
Speaking Points:
Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing.
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
8 June 2016

3. DFO Maritimes Region 8,600 kilometers of coastline
We have transboundary relationships with the states of Maine and Massachusetts (Gulf of Maine) plus DFO Gulf, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador for certain files
16 First Nations and 2 Native Councils within the geographic boundaries of the Region
DFO Maritimes Region employs approximately 731 staff at 28 sites
Regional Headquarters in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia with
292 employees at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography Campus
133 employees at Marine House
38 employees in the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) Atlantic Region located on Dartmouth campus
3 Area Offices
Eastern Nova Scotia: Sydney, Nova Scotia
Southwest Nova Scotia: Yarmouth, Nova Scotia
Southwest New Brunswick:  St. George, New Brunswick with St. Andrews, New Brunswick (Biological Station)
8,600 kilometers of coastline
39% of the total landed value of Canadian commercial fisheries with > 70 species harvested
One of the most productive aquaculture regions in Canada
Direct relationships with NS and NB Governments
Working relationships with DFO Regions (Gulf, Quebec and Newfoundland)
16 First Nations and 2 Native Councils within the geographic boundaries of the Region
International relationships with the U.S. for Gulf of Maine
8 June 2016

4. Small Craft Harbours 179 Harbours in the Maritimes Region
Average annual investments of $21.8 million since 2009
Most regional SCH facilities support integrated operations of traditional commercial fish harvesters, First Nations fisheries participants and aquaculture.
Southern
New Brunswick
33 Sites
Program vision: an essential, affordable, national network of safe and accessible harbours, in good working condition, that meets the principal and evolving needs of the commercial fishing industry while supporting the broader interests of coastal communities and Canada’s national interests
Of the total 1030 Small Craft Harbours, 302 are in the Maritime Provinces – ~30% of the National inventory.
In the Maritimes Region, there are 179 Small Craft Harbours (~17% of all SCHs ) including core (154) and non-core (25) fishing harbours. These form centres of activity in rural communities along the picturesque 8600 km coastline of the Maritimes Region
SCH Gulf and Maritimes Region covers three provinces and two regions of the Department
SWNB has 33 SCHs. One example of a major SCH project in SWNB is the Back Bay project to construct a marginal wharf, service area, shore protection and dredge to expand basin
ENS has 47 SCHs. One example of a major SCH project in ENS is the Dover (Little Dover) project to construct a new wharf to replace two existing wharves
SWNS has 99 SCHs. One example of a major SCH project in in SWNS is the Wedge Point (Wedgeport) project to construct a Breakwater
3 examples of Major SCH Federal Infrastructure (FII) Projects:
Back Bay (construct marginal wharf, service area, shore protection and dredge to expand basin);
Dover (Little Dover): Construct new wharf to replace two existing wharves); and
Wedge Point (Wedgeport): Construct Breakwater.
Eastern
Nova Scotia
47 Sites
South West
Nova Scotia
99 Sites

5. Climate Change and Variability in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
Strong evidence of change in some variables
Atmospheric and ocean warming
Sea level rise
Decreasing sea ice
Increasing ocean acidity
Earlier spring run-off
Reduced oxygen in some areas
Not conclusive evidence of changes in storminess
DFO Anthropogenic change and natural variability occurring in the Northwest Atlantic
Spatial and seasonal differences in both, e.g. west versus and northeast of Grand Bank
Difficult to identify and separate in many areas
Not possible to make robust quantitative projections on regional scales
Expanded observations, and improved models and understanding needed

6. Climate Change Risks
8 June 2016

7. Global Mean Sea Level 8 June 2016
- The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia.
- Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m
- Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise.
8 June 2016

8. Relative Sea Level Trends – Regional Variability
For Atlantic Canada, vertical land motion is largely due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA)
GIA is the delayed response of the Earth to historical changes in ice & water loads. These are caused by the advance and retreat of a continental ice sheet during the last ice age.
8 June 2016

9. Future Projections – Global Mean Sea Level Rise
- Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
IPCC AR5
8 June 2016

10. Increase in Flooding Frequency for Global Mean Sea Level Increase of 0
Increase in Flooding Frequency for Global Mean Sea Level Increase of 0.5m
IPCC AR5
8 June 2016

11. Adaptation Options Or Retreat 8 June 2016 Speaker Notes:
Avoidance: avoiding building in at-risk areas, for example, by creating setback limits for future development.
Retreat: strategically moving away from at-risk areas.
Accommodation: continuing to use land but in a modified way to accommodate increased flood risks, for example, raising homes on pilings.
Protection: undertaking protective measures to continue using the land. Examples include measures for hard protection, such as building dykes and sea walls or soft protection, such as wetland creation/enhancement.
Adapted from Daigle, 2012
8 June 2016

12. RPIC 2016 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop
2-3 Feb 2016
RPIC 2016 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

13. Ready for What?
 Impacts – effects on natural and human systems  Vulnerabilities – the predisposition to being adversely affected  Opportunities – adaptation factors that provide ancillary co-benefits
8 June 2016