1. Airports Division Great Lakes Region Overview of Airfield Capacity
Federal Aviation
Administration
Airports Division
Great Lakes Region
Overview of Airfield Capacity
Presentation to: Prospective Privatization Bidders Chicago Midway International Airport Name: Jeri Alles
Manager, Airports Division
Great Lakes Region
Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2008

2. Notable Planning Issue: Capacity at Chicago Midway
Future Airport Capacity Task (FACT).
System-wide analysis of the future capacity of the nation’s airports and metropolitan areas.
We’d like to talk briefly about an important planning issue that you also asked about—namely, capacity at Midway and the potential to enhance it.
In order to address this subject properly, I’d like to provide some broader context.
The FAA conducts a number of demand forecasting and capacity analyses, for a variety of purposes.
One of the most prominent recent capacity studies was an update of the 2004 “FACT” study—which stands for Future Airport Capacity Task. We published the update last year, in 2007.
The FACT studies are an assessment of the future capacity of the nation’s airports and metropolitan areas as a system. The goal was to determine which airports and metropolitan areas have the greatest need for additional capacity.
The studies were intended to provide data about the timing and need for infrastructure improvements at the national level for agency planning purposes.
It is important to recognize that the FACT studies analyze the system as a whole and do not provide a comprehensive capacity analysis of individual airports.
Original published in 2004 (FACT)
Planning Period: 2003, 2013, 2020
Update published in 2007 (FACT II)
Planning Period: 2007, 2015, 2025

3. Notable Planning Issue: Capacity at Chicago Midway
What did the 2007 FACT report say about MDW?
FACT RESULTS
FACT RESULTS
After Planned Improvements
After Planned Improvements
So, what did the FACT 2 update conclude about Midway?
The bottom line was that Midway faces no capacity constraint in 2015— assuming that planned air traffic control improvements and improvements at other airports in the national system are in place.
For purposes of the FACT studies, we define capacity as the ability of an airport to meet the current and future demand, without causing undue delays to the national aviation system.
However, by 2025, assuming that demand continues to grow, Midway is identified as facing a potential capacity constraint. Again, 2025 is the analytical snapshot—the actual date when Midway might begin to experience a capacity constraint is actually a bit earlier, in 2020.
An important difference between 2015 versus 2025 is that by 2025 we assume full implementation of NextGen improvements. In other words, the FACT update assumes that by 2025 the industry will be using information technology that provides enhanced capabilities in the cockpit for better navigation and landing capabilities.

4. Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)
Official forecast at FAA facilities.
Prepared for FAA budget and planning needs.
Unconstrained air carrier demand.
Constrained general aviation demand at MDW.
Reflects local economic variables and price of flying from the airport for OEP airports.
MDW annual operations growth rate forecast to be 1.96% in the planning period ( ).
You might reasonably ask about how the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast or “TAF” compares to the FACT study.
The FACT studies include analyses of both demand and capacity, and the demand forecasts are developed using different methodologies and a combination of forecasts including the MITRE Corporation’s “FATE” model and the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast or “TAF.”
The TAF is the official forecast of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These forecasts are prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of FAA, and to provide information for use by state and local authorities, the aviation industry, and the public.
The latest TAF was published in December of 2007 and usually assumes an unconstrained demand for aviation services based upon local and national economic conditions. However, for MDW, the TAF assumes unconstrained air carrier demand and constrained GA demand.
For the 2007 TAF (which covers the period through 2025), the annual growth rate for aircraft operations at MDW was forecasted at 1.96%.

5. Typical Airfield Capacity Enhancements
New runways
New commercial service airports
Regional solutions (regional traffic and development alternatives)
Congestion management
High-density corridors and multi-modal planning
NextGen
The FACT 2 analysis identified several airports around the country as needing additional capacity by Some general categories that have been identified by the FAA for further investigation include:
New runways – one of the most obvious and direct responses to an expected capacity limitation, but naturally they have to be able to work in the airspace and there are often substantial impediments.
New commercial service airports – Only 2 new major commercial service airports have been built in the US over the past 40 years.
Regional solutions – Analyzing specific air travel behavior within defined regions could yield solutions to regional congestion.
Congestion management – In some cases runway construction is not a viable alternative and demand management may be investigated.
High-density corridors and multi-modal planning – high-speed ground modes as well as short-haul air travel could be investigated to alleviate congestion in chronically congested areas.
NextGen – new technologies that may improve navigation and operations
Solutions at each airport will be different and can only be identified through consideration of local factors and concerns.
One potential improvement that the Chicago Department of Aviation is already considering is the possibility of taxiway modifications that could enhance capacity, but neither the City nor FAA have reached any conclusions.

6. Airfield Capacity Resources
FACT I and FACT II Studies
Airport Capacity Benchmark Report 2004
FAA NextGen Implementation Plan
In the interest of time, I’ve glossed over a lot of technical details, underlying assumptions and methodologies.
If you have any further questions about these analyses, I’ll probably have to take an IOU because the underlying methodologies are very complicated.
But, just in case you or your technical experts haven’t yet looked at these documents, we thought it might be helpful to highlight where they can be found. And naturally they include a lot of information about the methodologies used.

7. Federal Aviation
Administration
Thank you!
Questions?