1. CLIMATE FORECAST AND SERVICES IN VIETNAM
The 13th FOCRAII 24-26/4/207, Beijing, China
Introduction to
CLIMATE FORECAST AND SERVICES IN VIETNAM
Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate change (IMHEN)
Vu Van Thang
Truong Ba Kien

2. Outline Brief Introduction of Vietnam’s Geography
The Hydro-Meteorological Stations Network
Climate Forecast and Services
Limitations

3. Vietnam is located in the South-East Asia.
Latitude: 8027 N N
Longitude: E E.
Areas: 330,992 km2.
Coastline: 3,260 km covers the East and the Topography: ¾ mountains and hills with the elevation mostly from 100 to 1000 m.
7 climatic regions: (i) North-West; (ii) North-East; (iii) The Northern delta; (iv) Northern Central coast ; (v) Southern Central coast; (vi) Central Highland; and (vii) The South
Monsoon tropical climate

4. Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Stations Network

5. Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Stations Network
234 Hydrological Stations
7 Radar Stations
17 Marine Hydro-Meteorological Stations
14 AWS

6. Climate Forecast and Services

7. Climate monitoring and early warning
Drought monitorning and warning:

8. Seasonal climate bulletin and outlook
Climate forecast
Forecast system
GCMs
Seasonal climate bulletin and outlook
IMHEN’s HPC
GCM’s forecast
Regional Models
Statistical models
Models and Software
For each month, we have climate forecasts with 1, 3 months lead time from:
Global Climate Model (GCM)
Regional Climate Model (RCM)
Statistical Model (SD)

9. Statistical models Y = f(Xi) + ξ
Statistical model based on the ENSO (SD_IMHEN)
Y = f(Xi) + ξ
Statistical downscaling model based on the GCM’s forecasts
Temp April 2017
Pre April 2017 * * *

10. Regional climate models
Two regional climate models (ClWRF and RSM) have been running on the IMHEN’s HPC for climate forecast
The initial and boundary conditions from CFSv2
The regional climate models are run 2 times/each month for 1, 3 months lead time
Global models
Regional models * * *

11. Regional climate models * * *

12. Regional climate models
Rainfall extreme events * * *

13. Regional climate models
Temperature extreme events: Hot day (SU35) and very hot day (SU37) * * *

14. Regional climate models
Summer monsoon forecast (testing) * * *

15. Operational climate forecast
Climate forecast bulletin for 3 months lead time is issued and sent to relevant agencies and posted on our website:
Statistical model is the operational model
GCMs and RCMs for consideration (providing information for forecaster) 15 15 15

16. Climate Prediction System (plan, 2018)
NWP
CFS/CCAM (~100 km):
15 members
RSM, clWRF, RegCM (~20km)
1,3,6 months leading time
- Climate forecasts
- Agriculture
Water resources …
EPS Forecast

17. CLIMATE SERVICES

18. Climate services in Agriculture sector
Reporting agro-met conditions and forecasting crop yield are regular operational work.
Bulletins are sent to relevant agencies and posted on our website: * *

19. Climate services in Water management sector * * *

20. Concrete curing map based on the climate conditions
Climate services in: Construction, Transportation and Energy sectors
Climate zones for Construction
Concrete curing map based on the climate conditions * * *

21. Climate services in the tourism and health sectors
Cases of dengue,
January Tourism Climate Index map for Vietnam
Relationships between climate and sector * * *

22. Climate services: Climate change projections
Statistical model (SD)
16 regional climate models

23. CC Projection methods (4) Bias Correction
RCP
2100
SRES
RCP8.5
8.5 W/m2
A1F1
RCP6.0
6.0 W/m2 B2
RCP4.5
4.5 W/m2 B1
RCP2.6
2.6 W/m2 -
(3) 16 members (CMIP5): NorESM1-M, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, ACCESS1-0, CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR,, NCAR-SST, HadGEM2-SST, GFDL-SST , Ensemble .
(1) RCPs
(4) Bias Correction
Projections
(2) Dynamical Downscaling : 4 RCMs ~ 20km ( PRECIS, CCAM, RegCM, and clWRF), Though collaboration IMHEN and CSIRO-Australia, BCCR-Norway, MetOffice-UK,UNDP.
Kịch bản biến đổi khí hậu được xây dựng dựa trên cách tiếp cận mới về kịch bản phát thải;
Phương pháp chi tiết tiết hóa động lực được sử dụng để tính toán xây dựng kịch bản biến đổi khí hậu cho Việt Nam. Năm mô hình khí hậu toàn cầu và khu vực được áp dụng trong tính toán.
Mỗi mô hình có các phương án tính toán khác nhau. Tổng cộng có 16 phương án tính toán.
Mô hình Khí hậu có nhược điểm là thường không mô phỏng tốt yếu tố địa phương và có sai số hệ thống nhất định. Vì thế, kết quả của mô hình cần được hiệu chỉnh dựa trên số liệu thực đo tại trạm để phản ánh điều kiện cụ thể của địa phương và giảm sai số hệ thống.
Các kết quả tính toán còn được đánh giá mức độ tin cậy.
(5) SLR: AOGCM (AR5)
(6) Uncertainties

24. CC projections in Vietnam
Temp
Precip
Extremes
SLR
Temp ( )
+ 0,62oC.
Vietnam: +
North VN: -
South VN: +
Extremes in temp: +
Cold days: -
Droughts: +
Strong Typhoon: +
Obs
SLR: +2.45mm/year
( )
By 2100
- RCP4.5: oC;
- RCP8.5: oC.
By 2100
- RCP4.5: + 5÷15%
- RCP8.5: + > 20%
CC projections
Extremes in temp: +
Extreme rainfall: + Droughts: +
Strong Typhoon: +
SLR
RCP4.5: 58cm (36÷80cm), 57cm (33÷83cm);
RCP8.5: 78cm (52÷107cm), 77cm (50÷107cm);
CO2
Rainy season: +
Dry season: -
+: increasing; - : decreasing

25. Climate services: Climate change scenarios
Climate change scenarios for water management in Ha Tinh province

26. Limitations: Infrastructure & Technology and HRs
Telecommunication infrastructures are still under- developed in the region
Thin observation networks; many have not been modernized & not provided real-time data
Limited data processing capacity and tools
HPC is not enough for running regional models
Number of trained staff is limited in
Modeling
Operational procedures/guidelines
Model verification

27. Limitations: Services
Standard National database of meteorology and hydrology
Early warning system
User interface/ information distribution system: downscaled (localized) forecast information
Capacity to fill the gaps between service providers and users
Investigation of weather and climate value in different sectors
Forecast quality/accuracy
Tailored products/services for various users
National Framework for Climate services

28. Thank you !