1. Regional Air Quality Planning in the Upper Midwest
Michael Koerber
Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium
RPO National Meeting
June 8-10, 2005

2. Overview Current Air Quality (O3, PM2.5, and regional haze)
Regional Planning Efforts
Schedule
Organization
Preliminary control strategy work

3. Current Air Quality O3
PM2.5
Regional Haze

4. 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas (Region V)
Counties !!!!

5. PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas (Region V)
Counties !!!!

6. Isle Royale National Park, MI

7. “One Atmosphere”
Cite: Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers, NARSTO, February 2003

8. Regional Planning Efforts
Schedule
Organization
Preliminary control strategy work

9. Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze Schedule (draft)
Moderate 8-hr Ozone Full Controls (RFP)
Implementation Year
Serious 8-hr Ozone
Full Controls (RFP)
Implementation Year
(“Bump-up”)
Severe 8-hr Ozone
Full Controls (RFP)
Implementation Year
(“Bump-up”)
Designate areas for
8-hr Ozone NAAQS
8-hr
Ozone
Attain-
ment
Demon-
stration
SIPs due
Moderate 8-hr Ozone NAAQS Attainment
Date
Marginal 8-hr Ozone Attain-ment Date
Latest Subpart 1
Oz Attainment
Date
Subpart 1
Ozone
Attainment
Date
NOx
SIP Call
Red-uc-tions
Serious 8-hr Ozone NAAQS attainment Date
NOx
SIPs
Due
RACT
SIPs
Due 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CAIR
Phase 1- Summer
NOx
CAIR
Phase 1- Annual
NOx, SO2
CAIR Phase 2
NOx, SO2
CAIR SIPs due
(FIP- NOx, SO2 Budgets)
Potential Attainment
Date Extension(s) for Fine PM NAAQS
(“Feasibility Test”)
Phase II
Acid Rain
Compliance
Designate Areas
for Fine PM NAAQS
Initial Attainment
date for Fine PM NAAQS
PM2.5
Implementation Plans
1st Regional Haze Milestone & 2nd Decade SIPs due
Regional Haze Progress SIPs due (for 2018 milestone)
Likely BART Controls
Installation Years

10. SIP Dates
Ozone PM Haze
Nonattainment April 15, 2004 Dec 17,
Designations June 15, 2004 April 5, 2005
SIPs due June 2007 April 2008 Dec 2007

11. Key Questions
Will “on the books” and “on the way” (CAIR) controls be enough to provide for O3/PM2.5 attainment by 2009 and meet regional haze goals by 2018?
Are we getting as much as we can out of CAIR (e.g., maximize air quality benefits)?
If we need to do more, then what are the regional and local control measure options?

12. Technical Analyses: Modeling
Model: CAMx
Domain/Grid: Eastern U.S.
(36 km), Midwest (12 km)
Year: (full year)
- PM/haze, 36 km
2001, 2002, 2003
(summer) – O3, 12 km
12 km
36 km

13. Technical Analyses: Monitoring and Data Analyses
Source Apportionment of
IMPROVE and STN Data
Regional Ammonia Monitoring
Urban Organics Study

14. Control Strategies “On the books” (existing) “On the way” (new)
CAIR
CAIR + Regional Control Options
EGU1, EGU2
ICI Boilers
CAIR + Local Control Options
Area Source VOC
Fuels Strategy

15. Ozone Results
2002 (observed) CAIR

16. PM2.5 Results
2002 (observed) CAIR

17. Regional Haze Results Boundary Waters Isle Royale Seney NWR Lye Brook
Brigantine
Dolly Sodds
Shenandoah
Mingo
Mammoth Cave

18. Regional Haze Results
Seney, MI
Shenandoah, VA
Lye Brook, VT

19. What will it take to provide for attainment and meet regional haze goals?

20. Candidate Control Measures http://www. ladco. org/Regional_Air_Quality
Stationary Point Sources
Electric Generating Units
Industrial/Commercial/ Institutional (ICI) Boilers
Cement Kilns
Petroleum Refineries
Iron & Steel Plants
Chemical Plants
Surface Coating
Degreasing
Area Sources
Industrial Surface Coating
Degreasing
Architectural Coatings
Portable Fuel Containers
Consumer Products
Auto Refinishing
Gasoline Dispensing Facilities

21. What will it take to meet regional haze goals?

22. Summary Regional, multi-pollutant planning approach
Regional air quality workshops: Nov 17, 2004, Mar 8-9, 2005, June 28-29, 2005
SIPs for ozone (8-hour) and PM2.5 due in mid-2007 and early 2008, respectively
Need to identify control strategies by late 2005/early 2006
Modeling shows “on the books” and “on the way” controls will improve air quality, but not enough to meet air quality standards
Examination of additional, candidate control measures is on-going