1. PEN – China By Nick Hogarth
PEN workshop, Bogor, March 26th, 2009

2. SLIDE I: CONTEXT Climate: subtropical monsoonal
Forest Zone: sub-tropical broadleaf
The study area: Combined area for all Natural Villages in my sample = 67km2
# of villages sampled: 12 natural villages 6 administrative villages; 3 townships
Altitude: range 345 – 863m
Population in surveyed villages:
2860; 62% Zhuang, 26% Han, 12% Yao
Sample size: 240 households,
~4.7 people per household
Key dimensions
Slide 1 notes
1. Location:
Located in a mountainous and remote region; Tianlin County shares its borders with Yunnan and Guizhou provinces in the northwest of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in southern China (24ºN, 106ºE). It is part of the Greater Mekong Sub-region, being located about 150km north of the border with Vietnam. Tianlin is the largest county in Guangxi Province.
Climate:
subtropical monsoonal climate; with hot, wet summers and cool, dry winters. The annual average temperature is 17-20°C, and there are about 330 non-frost-days in the region. July is the hottest month with average daily temperatures between 23°C to 29°C. The coldest month is January; with average temperatures between 6°C to 16°C. The average annual rainfall is between 1’300-1’500mm
Forest Zone:
sub-tropical broadleaf forest
2. How large is the study area: Tianlin County is 5’170 km2 (the biggest in Guangxi); total combined area for all the Administrative Villages in my sample is ~182km2; total combined area for all the Natural Villages in my sample is approximately 67km2
3. # of Villages sampled:
12 natural villages in 6 administrative villages in 3 townships
# of people living in the surveyed villages:
2860; mean ~240 people per natural village
4. Sample size:
Started with 240 households, ~4.7 people per household (i.e people)
5. Key dimensions:
2 out of 12 of the natural villages are migrant villages

4. SLIDE II: HOUSEHOLD INCOME SOURCES
Average annual income per person (n = 1128)
* Total (cash & subs) 4’018RMB
i.e. $US545 as of Dec 2007
* Cash income 2’748RMB (68%)
i.e. $US373 as of Dec 2007
i.e. $US1.02 per day
* Subs income 1267RMB (32%)
i.e. $US172 as of Dec 2007
NB: income share by source was calculated using the average of shares from individual households (per person), whereas the share of cash vs subsistence was calculated using absolute values for the aggregated data.
Negative forest derived income is because the bamboo shoots were in the process of being processed, and hadnt been sold yet; so the value of the raw material in C2 was higher than the value of the processed ‘finished product’ in C1
2007, Tianlin County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, P.R. China

5. How does PEN income (cash) compare?

6. SLIDE III: INCOME SOURCES & SEASONALITY
All 6 villages aggregated; average annual income per person in a household (cash and subsistence combined)
Evidence of environmental income serving as “seasonal gap filler” when ag income is low:
No; very weak evidence. BUT: in Q2 and Q3 when ag income is at its lowest for the year; ‘All Other’ income (wage, business, remittance etc…) makes up a relatively larger income share. i.e. Business and wage income is the seasonal gap filler?
2007, Tianlin County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, P.R. China

7. Income share by quarter
~mid Dec – mid Jan
Winter; dry
~mid March – mid April
Spring; wet
~mid June – mid July
Summer; very wet
~mid Sept – mid Oct
Autumn; dry
Point out the non-standard y scales esp of Q2 and Q4

8. IV: KEY FOREST & ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS
Pricing
Direct Forest income [table B in the Quarterly surveys]
NTFPs
Forest product
% contribution
Cash : subsistence
Predominant forest type
Tung Oil seeds 59
71 : 29
plantation
Firewood 19
0 : 100
natural
NB: Forestry definitions
It is unclear if Tung oil, Bamboo and Tea oil are forestry products or agricultural products according to the FAO definition; grey area. But they are forestry products according to the Chinese definition of forest.
Pricing of subsistence/environmental goods
use farm-gate (local) prices. These values were crosschecked by comparing with retail prices at local markets when available, comparing local prices between the different villages in the survey, and by independently consulting with a wide range of local people about their opinions on the value of various products (the only product that seemed to be undervalued across all villages was firewood, which was traded rather ‘thin’, and given the time and effort involved in collecting and processing seemed to be grossly undervalued). Quantifying the amount of resources collected, consumed or sold was not a problem for the respondents in this survey, most of whom have a very clear understanding of weights, measures and their associated values.

9. Most valuable forest product overall
Undervalued?
Definitions?

10. Non-forest environmental sand 53 : 47 Payment for forest services
Other Environmental Income
Income source
Product
% contribution
Cash : subsistence
Land type
Fish
Wild fish
100
33 : 67
river
Non-forest environmental
sand
53 : 47
Payment for forest services
compensation NA
Natural forest

11. SLIDE V: Income composition and poverty
Explain the patterns: absolute value of forest income is positively correlated with the increases in income i.e. Q1 has the lowest absolute value and Q5 has the highest.
Forest dependency:
However the share of forest income is negatively correlated with income; i.e. as income increases the forest income share decreases. i.e. the poor are more dependent on forest resources

12. SLIDE VI: Other patterns
0% of households reported using forests particularly to weather misfortune
How did you cope?
Frequency
Percent
Did nothing in particular 18 33
Assistance from friends and relatives 10 19
Do extra casual labour work 8 15
Spend cash savings 7 13
Harvest more agricultural products 5 9
Tried to reduce household spending 4
Sell assets (land, livestock, etc.) 1 2
Get loan from money lender, credit association
Forest income used as a stepping stone out of poverty?
A high level of cash income from forest sources (slide II) may indicate potential
‘Ecological migration’ poverty alleviation project involving bamboo has demonstrated success
Evidence that forest income is used, directly or indirectly, as a stepping stone out of poverty:
A high level of cash income from forest sources (as in slide II) may indicate the potential to use this
income as a Stepping stone out of poverty, however there is no direct evidence in the PEN data to see how
the forest income is used.
Correlation between market distance and forest income (DFI & FDI)
 Very low correlation between DFI & FDI

13. SLIDE VII: Policies & overall findings
Projects & policies that have impacted on the patterns observed
Natural Forest Protection Program
↓ in access to natural forest resources (timber); some financial compensation (J2 & J5)
Program for the Conversion of Cropland into Forest
↓ in cropland, ↑ in forest land; some financial compensation (J2 & J5)
Taxes and bureaucracy
heavy fees, taxes, cutting permits, quotas, transport permits, and strict marketing controls discourage investment by individual farmers in forestry  hence the focus on NTFPs
‘Ecological’ Migrant Project
↑ in bamboo shoot production (dfi & fdi)
Investment in bamboo processing factories
Most surprising, exciting, or convincing findings?
I was initially surprised at the low income from timber, but upon learning of the NFPP and the taxes and bureaucracy associated with timber harvesting I was not surprised.
I was surprised how low the livestock income share is, but this is probably because the livestock capital is not taken into consideration
Most surprising, exciting, or convincing findings?
Low income from timber & livestock; big difference in income between quintile 1 & 2

14. Relationship of income with smiling
high
THANKS!
income
medium
low