1. Uganda: A Growth Diagnosis
International Monetary Fund
High Level Growth Conference
Kampala, September 14, 2017

2. Key issues Growth developments Factors behind the slowdown
Raising Uganda’s growth

3. Strong achievements: Growth8
Strong achievements: Growth
percent
average annual growth

4. Strong achievements: Poverty
Poverty headcount
ratio in percent
in 2013
80 ↘ 30
Poverty headcount
ratio in percent
in 1990

5. 8
More recently, growth
percent
average growth 5

6. Trend growth has slowed
Sources: IMF staff estimates. HP filter method.
*EAC-3: Averages for Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania.

7. External factors largely supported growth
Source: IMF staff estimates using the cross-country analysis method,
discussed in 2017 Spring WEO Ch. 2.

8. Exports redirected
Sources: MIT Atlas database and IMF staff calculations.

9. Agricultural productivity lags peers
Sources: WDI database, and IMF staff calculations.

10. Only services showed productivity growth
Sources: UBOS and BoU Staff calculations.

11. Total investment trend slowed
Sources: WDI database and IMF Staff calculations.

12. Total investment trend slowed
Sources: WDI database and IMF Staff calculations.

13. Investment were in less productive areas
Sources: UBOS and BoU Staff calculations.

14. Low primary school completion rate
Sources: WDI database and IMF staff calculations.

15. Social spending below regional average

16. Business environment improved, but less rapidly than in EAC peers
Sources: WDI database and IMF staff calculations.

17. Business environment constraints

18. Business environment constraints

19. A lot to gain from the financial sector

20. Significant gains in financial inclusion

21. Raising Uganda’s Growth
Access to financing
Skills
Trade
Infrastructure
Business environment
Implementation