1. Pending work on technical aspects of CBST
Transform variables to better represent non-uniform distributions of climates
Complete the development of transfer functions for remaining species

2. Recent work on the seedlot selection tool
Species selection pertains to the site, not the seedlot
Species selection to be used as a red flag instead of an axe.

3. Cutblock
Procurement area
Species distribution (current)

5. Recent work on the seedlot selection tool
Species selection pertains to the site, not the seedlot
Species selection to be used as a red flag instead of an axe.

6. Cutblock
Procurement area
Species distribution (current)

9. Seedlot
Seedlot suitability area < Transfer function < Provenance data

10. Seedlot
Seedlot suitability area
Species distribution (current)
Seedlot deployment area
Deploying seed only to overlap area ensures that both the species and seedlot are climatically suited to the site.

11. Seedlot
Seedlot suitability area
Species distribution (current)
Seedlot deployment area
Seedlot deployment area (assisted migration)

12. Tongli’s species distribution modelling
PoP 1975 for each pixel
PoP 2025 for each pixel
PoP 2055 for each pixel
PoP 1975 for each BECvar
PoP 2025 for each BECvar
PoP 2055 for each BECvar
1975 climate data for each pixel
Botanical plot data (42,000 pres/abs)
USDA FS FIA plot data (11,000 pres/abs)
1975 climate data for each plot
Random Forests
2025 climate data for each pixel
Model
2055 climate data for each pixel

14. Preferred/acceptable
Unacceptable
This approach to identifying minimum species suitability is being reviewed by Tongli. Likely to be highly species specific.

17. Data: Leslie McAuley

19. 0°C and 700 mm MAP
Dots = candidate seed sources
Oval = procurement zone
CSTD varies w site and sp
Old School

20. Cutblock
Seed procurement zone
0°C and 700 mm MAP
Dots = candidate seed sources
Oval = procurement zone
CSTD varies w site and sp
Old School

21. Species selection tool
BECvar prediction model
Reference Guide
Future climate of cutblock
Future BECvar of cutblock
Recommended species for cutblock
Cutblock
lat/long/elev
ClimateBC
Site series

22. 6300
2500
4000
1600
1000
650
400
250
MAP (mm)

23. 6300
2500
4000
1600
1000
650
400
250
MAP (mm)

24. 6300
2500
4000
1600
1000
650
400
250
MAP (mm)

25. 6300
2500
4000
1600
1000
650
400
250
MAP (mm)

26. Many deployment BECvars
Forested BECvars
Sx range
Seed source
Deployment zone
Many deployment BECvars

29. Evolutionary lag
IPCC 2001

30. AM - What is it?
Why isn’t it being used?
CC > maladaptation, then response strategies should therefore be focused on restoring adaptation

31. 1990 Plant Hardiness Zone Map
C. Daly J. Appl. Met. Clim.

32. Made-in Canada Plant Hardiness zone map
McKenney et al. 2014