1. E u r i s b i s |
C a g l i a r i
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
Czech Technical University in Prague
Faculty of Transportation Sciences
Department of Control and Telematics
P a v e l H r u b e š
P ř e m y s l D e r b e k

2. model of the emission load in the vicinity of a monitored road
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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O v e r v i e w
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What is the work about ?
model of the emission load in the vicinity of a monitored road
description of a simple method of the emission load estimating
relation of the model to the REAL traffic input data
describes particular methodologies of the real data conversion and processing
discussed are traffic intensities of the heavy trucks over 12 tons of weight
results are presented in graphs

3. Edtpi = Idt  epi Emission load model description: M o d e l
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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Emission load model description:
Edtpi = Idt  epi
Edtpi the emission load Edtpi for day type d (Mon, …, Sun),
t time of day
p pollutant
i road inclination
Idt traffic intensities in one direction for the given day type and time of the day
epi coefficient corresponding to a selected emission factor and given road inclination
Coefficients e may depend, in general, on the car type and velocity, too. In this state, our model is simplified, considering only registered heavy trucks at 80 km/h speed.

4. public available aggregated data sets
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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M o d e l D a t a
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Input data:
public available aggregated data sets
data from Czech D1 highway toll gate system
time period from January 1, 2007 to March 6, 2007
registered intensities of the heavy trucks over 12 tons of the weight
table with identification, kilometric and location localization of particular toll gates was attached to the data sets.
used coefficients e for the emission factors were the output of a different project.

5. Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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M o d e l D a t a
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Output data:
The output of the model calculations is given as the average emission load of the monitored road segment, in [g/km]
. . . examples in later present graphs . . .

6. Data file of intensities is arranged in following format:
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - T r a f f i c I n t e n s i t y
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Data file of intensities is arranged in following format:
Date (secondarily the day type as well)
Time (when the intensity was taken)
ID for the each toll gate
Intensity value
Provided intensity data sets for heavy truck traffic can be easily represented in joint time-space graphs as shown later . . .

7. Estimation of intensities (direction divided):
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - T r a f f i c I n t e n s i t y
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Estimation of intensities (direction divided):
intensities in original provided data sets are subdivided into two groups according to the traffic direction
each of the intensities, prepared for the separate traffic direction and for assessed day type is always created as the average value of all particular intensities in same day type (specified in the source file by date)
in our model, as already mentioned, an example for the day type "Friday" is presented
average value of the intensity represents colored scale, organized in values 0 – 130
values of intensities are represented as number of heavy trucks passed the gate in each previous 15 minutes

8. Estimation of FINAL intensities Idt :
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - T r a f f i c I n t e n s i t y
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Estimation of FINAL intensities Idt :
Idt is a value, which consists from average intensities divided for each of the particular direction at one toll gate in the same time and same day type
calculates as overall emission load in defined toll gate point (we do count with directional separate intensities)
the number of vehicles cannot be exactly identified from the input data file = details about this passing are not included
cars pass through several toll gates in 15 minutes time periods - an estimate of the number of vehicles is thus determined as relative relation to the maximum intensity over the period of 15 minutes

9. D1, day intensity – Friday | PRAGUE → BRNO
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - T r a f f i c I n t e n s i t y A n a l y s i s
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D1, day intensity – Friday | PRAGUE → BRNO
Values of average vehicle intensities over the 12 tons of weight proceed in range for Prague to Brno
Min.
1st Qu.
Median
Average
3rd Qu.
Max.
1.00
27.56
37.89
38.11
51.67
90.00

10. D1, day intensity – Friday | BRNO → PRAGUE
Table 1. Values of average vehicle intensities over the 12 tons of weight proceed in range for Prague to Brno
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - T r a f f i c I n t e n s i t y A n a l y s i s
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D1, day intensity – Friday | BRNO → PRAGUE
Values of average vehicle intensities over the 12 tons of weight proceed in range for Brno to Prague
Min.
1st Qu.
Median
Average
3rd Qu.
Max.
1.00
17.56
26.78
26.87
36.33
64.00

11. D1, day intensity – Friday | PRAGUE → BRNO
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - I n t e n s i t y A n a l y s i s D e s c r i p t i o n
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D1, day intensity – Friday | PRAGUE → BRNO
all-day traffic is visible
at night hours traffic is almost constant, during the day time increase
multiple grow is visible in the vicinity of Prague (0 – 20th km) and Brno (180th – 196th km)
behind the exit to Ceske Budejovice city (21th km) noticeable significant intensity fall
in following segments, the traffic load is more or less constant
near town Humpolec (90th km) intensity slightly increases again
on the exit to D2 highway behind Brno city (196th km), in the direction to town Vyskov (230th km), traffic significantly decreases (especially at night hours)
moreover, towards to Vyskov, traffic decreases to a minimum (even during the day).

12. D1, day intensity – Friday | BRNO → PRAGUE
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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I n p u t D a t a - I n t e n s i t y A n a l y s i s D e s c r i p t i o n
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D1, day intensity – Friday | BRNO → PRAGUE
visible all-day traffic
night hours traffic is smaller than in the opposite direction.
from the whole ratio of highway network traffic is traffic in this direction for 5% lower than in the opposite direction
Intensities across the highway are very similar to the opposite direction.
perceptible connection from Ceske Budejovice city (21th km)
Intensity outflow from town Humpolec (90th km).
the significant increase in intensity is visible in the vicinity of Brno city (after the D2 highway connection - 196th km).
other connections are visible in the 210th km (traffic from Uherske Hradiste town)
very strong intensity increase at the 230th km (traffic from Vyskov).

13. D1, emission load - Friday, C20H12
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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D1, emission load - Friday, C20H12

14. D1, emission load - Friday, NO2
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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D1, emission load - Friday, NO2

15. D1, emission load - Friday, PM10
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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D1, emission load - Friday, PM10

16. D1, emission load - Friday, SO2
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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D1, emission load - Friday, SO2

17. Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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C o n c l u s i o n
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What is it for ?
model has been utilized for calibration of fuzzy models predicting the effect of toll gate systems implementation
the model will become a building block of more complex models in the future. Such models may, for instance, help to distinguish the relative impacts of road traffic and other sources of pollution on the environment.
finding, formulating and implementation of more constraints to the model will lead in more accuracy results

18. finding, formulating and implementation of more constraints →
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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F u t u r e W o r k
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Starting project . . .
finding, formulating and implementation of more constraints →
→ will lead in more accuracy results
further developing should be in the future able to give better resolution
implementing the weather module.

19. R e f e r e n c e s E u r i s b i s | 2 0 0 9 C a g l i a r i
Emission Load Estimation and Modeling in Relation to the Real Input Traffic Data
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R e f e r e n c e s
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Svítek, M., Stárek, T., Hrubeš, P., Kantor, S., Derbek, P., "Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) and Their Impact on Sustainable Development", (ID OC194). Annual Report, 26, 15-18, Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague 2008
Hrubeš, P., Vlčková, V., Čarský, J., Kumpošt, P., Brabec, M., Pelikán, E., The study "Weekend trip limitations of selected heavy trucks - an impact and benefits analysis". Research report LSS 337/08, part I., 129, 5-84, Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague 2008
Hrubeš, P., Kazmarová, H., Keder, J., Helmuth, T., Potužníková, D., The study "Run limitation of selected trucks on weekends - an impact and benefits analysis". Research report LSS 337/08, part III., 33, 20-32, Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague 2008
Zito, P., Chen, H., Bell, M., "Predicting real-Time Roadside CO and NO2 Concentrations Using Neural Networks". IEEE Transaction on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 9, No. 3, September 2008
Gammariello, R., Carlock, M., "Development of Hourly Vehicle Activity for Estimating Vehicle Emissions", Seventh CRC On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop, San Diego, California, April 1997
Cicero-Fernandez, P., Long, J.R., "Grades and Other Load Effects on On-Road Emissions: An On-Board Analyzer Study", Fifth Annual On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop, San Diego, California, 1995

20. ==========> go back to presentation #1
E u r i s b i s |
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T H A N K Y O U
==========> go back to presentation #1