1. Presidential Popularity
GOVT 2305, Module 13

2. Importance of Presidential Popularity
A president's personal popularity affects the position of the president as a political broker and the ability of the president to appeal to the public for policy support. A president who is politically popular can offer more benefits and inducements to other political actors for their cooperation than can an unpopular chief executive. Campaign help from a popular president is more valuable and support for legislative proposals is more effective.
If a president is unpopular, it is easier, maybe even advisable for members of Congress from his party representing swing districts to oppose him.

3. Honeymoon
Because of this phenomenon, presidents are typically most successful at achieving their policy goals in their first six months in office.
New presidents are popular, at least for a few months. The tendency of a president to enjoy a high level of public support during the early stages of an administration is known as the honeymoon effect.
The point the cartoonist is making is that the press fell all over itself singing the praises of Obama, at least for a few months.
Explain this cartoon.

4. Honeymoons end
The honeymoon typically lasts six to eight months. Once presidents start making decisions, they begin making people unhappy with them.
In today’s highly partisan environment, honeymoons may be shorter. Rush Limbaugh declared he wanted Obama to fail even before he took office. The Tea Party formed after Obama had been in office less than six weeks.

5. Did Obama Have a Honeymoon?
Latest Obama approval rating according to the Gallup Poll: 54 % approve and 43 % disapprove.
Yes and it lasted about six months, which is average.

6. George H.W. Bush Bush’s popularity fell as the economy grew weaker.
Bill Clinton: “It’s the economy, stupid!”

7. Clinton’s popularity remained strong despite Monica and impeachment because the economy was strong.
Bill Clinton
Republicans strongly favored impeachment while Democrats and independents opposed it.
Newt Gingrich was speaker when the House impeached Clinton. Ironically, he was having his own affair with a staff member.

9. Good News, Bad News
In general, presidential popularity rises with good news, such as a strong economy, and falls with bad news, such as rising unemployment. Presidential approval is usually closely tied to the nation’s economic performance.

10. Rally Effect
Presidential popularity rises dramatically during times of international crisis because of the rally effect, which is the tendency of the general public to express support for the incumbent president during a time of international threat. When the nation appears threatened from abroad, the political criticism that generally accompanies presidential action is muted. The White House is able to get its interpretation of events before the public because opposition political leaders do not want to be accused of undermining the president during an international crisis. The public tends to support the president because the only messages it hears about the president’s handling of the crisis are positive messages, usually conveyed by the White House itself or the president’s allies in Congress.

11. George W. Bush
Record high approval
Record low approval

12. Bush’s Final Rating—22 Pct.
Pct. Approve
Presidents enjoy strong support from their fellow party members, but suffer disapproval from the other party. Independents swing from approval to disapproval. At the end of his second term, G. W. Bush’s approval rating was only 22 pct., but a majority of Republicans still approved of his performance.
Rep
Dem
Ind
Approve 57 6 18
Disapprove 34 93 73

13. What You Have Learned
How does presidential popularity affect the ability of the president to get things done?
What is the honeymoon effect?
What is the rally affect?
What factors affect a president’s personal popularity?