1. CIMA Paper P1 Management Accounting
江西财经大学 会计学院
熊家财

2. 13
Chapter
Forecasting Techniques

3. Chapter Content Forecasting Techniques The High Low Method Regression
Time Series
Analysis

4. Section 1 The need for forecasting
迎评工作 一
Section 1 The need for forecasting

5. The need for forecasting

6. Section 2 High-low method
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Section 2 High-low method

7. High Low Method
Choose highest and lowest output

8. High Low Method
Example 1

9. High Low Method
Example 2

10. Section 3 Regression analysis
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Section 3 Regression analysis

11. 迎评工作 一
Section 3.1 Regression

12. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Equation of a straight line
Intercept (on y-axis)
Gradient
Dependent
variable
y = a +bx
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…
Independent variable

13. Least Squares Regression Analysis
n∑xy – ∑x∑y b =
n∑x2 – (∑x)2
a = y – bx
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

14. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Example 3
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

15. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Example 3
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

16. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Example 4
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

17. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Example 4
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

18. 迎评工作 一
Section 3.2 Correlation

19. Correlation
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

20. Correlation
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

21. Correlation
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

22. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

23. Least Squares Regression Analysis
Please can we make this look like later slides in session 5 with formulae.
Animate such that formula appears first, then the arrows & definitions appear in a clockwise direction starting at average hours…

24. Section 4 Time series analysis
迎评工作 一
Section 4 Time series analysis

25. Time Series Analysis
A time series is a series of figures relating to the changing value of a variable over time.

26. Components of a time series

27. Components of a time series

28. Components of a time series

29. Components of a time series

30. 迎评工作 一
Section 4.1 Find the trend

31. The trend

32. The trend: moving average

33. The trend: moving average for even number

34. The trend: moving average for even number
Example 5

35. The trend: moving average for even number
Example 5

36. Section 4.2 Find the seasonal variation
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Section 4.2 Find the seasonal variation

37. Seasonal variation
Example 6

38. Seasonal variation
Example 6
Example in p593

39. Section 4.3 Multiplicative model
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Section 4.3 Multiplicative model

40. The Multiplicative Model
The Multiplicative Model looks at the seasonal variation in proportional terms.
Actual (A) = T x S x R

41. Seasonal variation
Example7

42. Seasonal variation
Example7

43. 迎评工作 一
Section 4.4 Forecasting

44. Forecasting

45. Chapter Summary