1. HOW SMALL PROBABILITIES AFFECT OUR LIFE?
Group 4: Bernetta, Yong Ming and Timothy
Presenter: Timothy

2. Assigned reading
Rosenthal, J. (2005). Struck by lightning: The curious world of probabilities. London: Granta Publications, pp. 234–246 (Chapter 16, Ignorance, Chaos, and Quantum Mechanics).

3. Outline of presentation
Small Probabilities in life
Probability and Randomness
Causes of Randomness
Chaotic System
Weather: an example of chaotic system
Quantum Mechanics
Choices

4. Small probabilities in life
“The measure of the likelihood that an event will occur”
–Wikipedia
Chance of striking a lottery
Chance of getting a module that’s highly popular
Chance of life on other planets?

5. Probability and randomness
Probability exists because of randomness!
Randomness: “lack of pattern or predictability in events” - Wikipedia
No randomness = no probability since EVERYTHING will be certain

6. Causes of randomness Own ignorance to the environment
Not having enough facts and insights to justify the randomness in life
Too many factors affecting a event to be extremely and precisely certain of its outcome

7. Chaotic system Correspondingly unpredictable and random
A very small sensitive change can have a large effect on final outcome
E.g. flipping coins to determine which side it lands on, which can be affected by the force exerted and how many times the coin has spun. Although your eyes can see approximately how hard the coin is pushed and how fast it is moving, it is not precise enough to make accurate prediction

8. Weather: an example of chaotic system
“A result of numerous reactions and collisions of unimaginable number of air molecules, water droplets and other factors”
Collisions “do not run in simple patterns; rather they cause further collisions after further collisions in highly unpredictable ways”
Weather prediction is complex, hence unpredictable
Even with the most accurate sensing equipment, tiny mistakes can lead to wildly inaccurate weather forecast

9. Quantum Mechanics
The universe works in terms of “probabilities and uncertainties” rather than “fixed scientific certainties”
Cannot predict certainly what will happen next, but just the various probabilities of it occurring
Heisenberg uncertainty principle – describes how “there will always be a certain pre-specific minimum level of uncertainty and randomness” in everything observed or predicted

10. SMALL PROBABILITIES exists all the time and AFFECT OUR WAY OF LIFE!
Since we can only predict the probability of the event happening without certainty

11. Choices Our entire lives follows the chaotic system
One choice can lead to another – Branching effect, leading to different outcomes
Many worlds theory
Each time quantum mechanics makes a decision involving randomness, it makes both choices and create two different universes, one for each of the two possible outcomes

12. Thank you!