1. (Over)Reacting to Trends in Violent Crime
Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.
August 6, :00 pm Auditorium Washington Renaissance Hotel
Juvenile Crime: Trends and Perceptions
Presented to the Juvenile Detention Alternatives Initiative
Conference, Annie E. Casey Foundation

2. Crime Trends are Easily Distorted by Policymakers for Temporary Political Gain
Especially violent crime and drug crime
Especially juvenile crime
Some distortions may even be well-intended (e.g., to focus lawmakers on domestic issues)

3. National Trends in Juvenile Arrests

5. This increase, while not large in relative terms, captured the attention of policymakers and the news media in 2006 and 2007.
It was almost entirely due to a change in robbery arrest rates.

17. Note the similarity in robbery arrest rates and weapon arrest rates.

18. Common Debating Trick
Dismiss national trends as meaningless
Argue that focus should be on local data
Cherry-pick data that best suits your argument

19. Violent Crime in 100 U.S. Cities
Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago
2008
Method:
Simple Visual Inspection of Long-Term Trends

20. 100 Largest Cities Participating in UCR from 1985-2007
4 Types of Crime Trends n % (pop.)
Generally Decreasing %
Relatively Stable/Unclear %
Increasing Somewhat %
Generally Increasing % %

21. 50 Cities 67% of the population Generally Decreasing Including:
Albuquerque Houston New York
Anaheim Jacksonville Newark
Baltimore Long Beach Phoenix
Boston Los Angeles Raleigh
Chicago Miami San Diego
Dallas Nashville Seattle

22. Stable or Unclear Trends
24 Cities
14% of the population

23. Increasing Somewhat
17 Cities
13% of the population

24. Generally Increasing In the remaining 9 cities (6% of the population)
Violent crime grew either: (1) in a relatively sustained way, or (2) so sharply that the gains from the s were being nearly erased

25. Generally Increasing Anchorage, AK Lexington, KY
Birmingham, AL Modesto, CA
Fremont, CA Norfolk, VA
Greensboro, NC Pittsburgh, PA
Las Vegas, NV
In all but one of these cities (Anchorage), violent crime fell between 2007 and 2008

26. 26

44. Simply Put: Crime rates just vary – usually in unexplainable and unpredictable ways We are most likely to distort the meaning of trends when we try to interpret short-term changes (2 or 3 years) Just look at 4 of the cities we were all very worried about in 2005 and 2006…

45. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

46. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

47. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

48. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

49. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

50. The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different.
- Peter Drucker