1. How do voters make up their minds?

2. Who Votes? People who are registered People with more education
People with more interest in politics
People with higher incomes
African-Americans (all other things equal)

3. Turnout 2008

4. Voter Turnout, & 2008

5. Effect of education on turnout (2008)

6. Effect of income on turnout, 2008

7. Effect of race on turnout? (2008)

8. Did race make a difference?

9. Youth voter turnout

10. The year of the youth vote? 2004 and 2008 turnout rates

11. Voters are Ignorant

12. What do voters know? the United States is a democracy (88%)
presidents serve 4 years (93%)
know that popular votes don’t elect the president (69%)

13. What do voters know? 99% can name the US president
25% can name both of their US Senators
29% can correctly name their representative in the House

14. What do voters know? 31% can describe affirmative action
39% can locate Massachusetts on a map
15% can say what the New Deal was
20% could name a memorable political slogan

15. How do voters decide?
Party ID/Ideology

16. Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president

17. How do voters decide? Party ID/Ideology
Evaluations of the current president, current conditions, economy
Issues (opinions not otherwise guided by above)
The candidates’ personalities
Promises and policies

18. Do voters really decide based on issues presented in the campaign?
Median Voter Theorem:
In a winner-take-all system, parties should promote policies that appeal to the voter at the median of the distribution of voter preferences.
In Presidential elections, ensures that candidates will gravitate toward the middle, and NOT try to distinguish their positions

19. Do Presidents Win Mandates?
Only if:
Clear campaign positions
Voters know what their own positions are
Voters know what president’s positions are
President wins clear electoral victory