1. Investing out of the crisis: the education dynamic
Futures Forum
UNESCO Paris 2 March 2009
Nicholas Burnett
Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO

2. Outline at a glance State of Education in the World
Likely Impact of the Crisis
Strategic Directions
Keep a vision
Protect gains made
Reaffirm right to education
Reaffirm centrality of education for growth
Monitor situation
Ensure policies open opportunities, not the opposite
Exploit short-term synergies between investing in education and economic recovery 1

3. Major education trends
Enrolment increases at all levels in developing countries but large global and national disparities risk being accentuated
Impressive increase in primary school enrolments in Africa and South Asia – much more rapid than in 1990s; progress towards gender parity
Impact of public policies: school fee abolition, school construction in underserved areas, teacher recruitment
In a majority of countries with data, national spending on education has increased since 2000, international aid has supported progress
Increasing demand for secondary education but enrolments still much lower than at primary level in most developing regions
Rapid growth in tertiary education
→But: 776 million adults lack basic literacy skills; 75 million children still out of school
Low learning achievement in many developing countries 2

4. Universal primary education: rapid progress
1991
1999
2006
Some 690 million children in primary school worldwide
Sharp rise in enrolment rates in Africa and South and West Asia
40 million more children in primary school in 2006 than in 1999
Free tuition, school construction, community campaigns and subsidies to the poorest families have increased access
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009 3

5. Secondary education: rising demand but limited access
1999
2006
Some 513 million students enrolled worldwide
Enrolments remain low in Africa and South/West Asia
In many developing countries, attendance rates lower among poorer households
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009 4

6. Tertiary education: increasing student numbers but large global disparities
1999
2006
Worldwide some 144 million students were enrolled in tertiary education in 2006, 51 million more than in 1999
A large majority of new places were created in developing countries
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009 5

7. Children who never make it to school
2015
at least 29 million children out of school in 2015
Millions of children
2006
75 million children out of school in 2006
2006
2015
Nigeria
8.1
7.6
India
7.2
0.6
nearly half of these in sub-Saharan Africa alone
55% girls - who are more likely never to have been in school than boys
Pakistan
6.8
3.7
Partial projections in 134 countries (which represent two-thirds of out-of-school children in 2006)
Projections made before the crisis
Nigeria and Pakistan together represent about one-third of the out-of-school population
Ethiopia
3.7
1.1
Bangladesh
1.4
0.3
Kenya
1.4
0.9
Niger
1.2
0.9
Burkina Faso
1.2
1.1
Ghana
1.0
0.7
Mozambique
1.0
0.3
Philippines
1.0
0.9
Yemen
0.9
0.3
Mali
0.8
0.6
Turkey
0.7
0.7
Brazil
0.6
0.2
Senegal
0.5
0.2
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
Iraq
0.5
0.2 6

8. Education quality: learning gaps
Low average level of learning in many developing countries relative to developed countries
PISA assessments place over 60% of children in Brazil and Indonesia in the lowest score quintile
Global learning divide mirrored by social-economic divide within countries
100
High achievement 80 60 40
Share of students (%) 20 20 40 60
Low achievement 80
100
Brazil
Chile
Japan
Mexico
France
Finland
Thailand
Indonesia
Argentina
Kyrgyzstan
United Kingdom
At or above level 5
Levels 2 to 4
At or below level 1
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009 7

9. Grade attainment: a wealth gap
100
OECD countries (Finland)
Latin America and
Caribbean, average
LAC, Richest 20%
South and West Asia,
average
SWA, Richest 20% 80
Children in the poorest 20% of households more likely to drop out that those in the richest 20%
Sub-Saharan Africa,
average
SSA, Richest 20%
Survival to grade (%) 60
LAC, Poorest 20% 40
SSA, Poorest 20%
SWA, Poorest 20%
Grade attainment by wealth quintile in sub-Saharan Africa,
South and West Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean 8 20
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9

10. The global literacy challenge
There were 776 million illiterate adults in 2006, two-thirds were women. This represents 16% of the global adult population
Projected number of adult illiterates (age 15+), by gender and region, 2015
Projections for 2015: at least 700 million illiterate adults
Projections made before the crisis
Literacy gap: Adult literacy rates can vary up to 40 percentage points between the richest and poorest households within a given country. or
= about 5 million adult illiterates
Women
Men
South and West Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia/Pacific
Arab States
Latin America/Caribbean
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009 9

11. What made all this possible?
Political commitment: increased understanding of importance of education for growth and poverty reduction
- Education for All Goals - Dakar 2000
- Millennium Development Goals
- Enhanced recognition of higher education’s role
Sustained economic growth
At the same time:
- Lack of political commitment to address rising inequalities
- Neglect of literacy programs for youth and adults 10

12. Lessons from 1990s crises: high human costs
No clear cut pattern but most studies show:
Reductions in social spending on health and education
Higher child mortality rates, increase in malnutrition
Reduced ability of households to contribute to schooling costs
Decrease in school enrolments in low-income countries
Increase in child labour
In middle- and high-income countries possible increase in secondary and tertiary s enrolments due to lack of job opportunities
Reduced aid flows: 1% drop in donor-country GDP associated with 1% drop in aid flows 11

13. Lessons from the East Asia crisis
Education played an important role in shaping the development in East Asian countries. A UNESCO/IIEP regional project showed that the 1998 crisis led to:
Cuts in education budgets (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines)
Higher vulnerability of women to job losses
Higher demand for public provision of education, shift of students away from private schools
Withdrawal of older children from school; delayed entry of youngest
Decline in enrolment in junior secondary
Higher drop out in private universities, increased enrolment in public universities
Student nationals return from abroad to enter local universities
18 will achieve it by 2015
9 will achieve it by 2025
→ Responses:
-Governments set up social safety net schemes including block transfers to families to keep children in school and scholarship programs
-Singapore announced desire to remain competitive and pledged not to cut R & D budget 12

14. Drop in aid from donor countries hit by financial crises in 90s (Japan)
Source: Roodman (2008), History Says Financial Crisis Will Suppress Aid 13

15. Drop in aid from donor countries hit by financial crises in 90s (Scandinavia)
Source: Roodman (2008), History Says Financial Crisis Will Suppress Aid 14

16. What’s different from the 1930s?
Today’s crisis is compared in magnitude to the 1929 crash. But it has happened in a very different global context
Global crisis in a globalized world
Rapid decline follows period of prolonged growth
A permanent decline in manufacturing?
Migration trends reversing
Aid dependency of many low-income countries
Multilateral institutions exist, however inadequate
Education now an established right - Universal Declaration of Human Rights 15

17. Outline Reminder State of Education in the World
Likely Impact of the Crisis
Strategic Directions
Keep a Vision
Protect gains made
Reaffirm right to education
Reaffirm centrality of education for growth
Monitor situation
Ensure policies open opportunities, not opposite
Exploit short-term synergies between investing in education and economic recovery 16

18. Keeping a global, long-term vision
“Choosing a type of education means choosing a type of society”
Reducing poverty at a time when one billion people live under $1 a day
Social justice at a time of growing inequality within economies and societies
Peace at a time of intolerance and conflict within countries
Sustainable societies at a time of global warming and climate change
Adapting to the unknown at a time of economic uncertainty and continued technological advances 17

19. Protect gains made Counter-cyclical investment:
- protect or increase public spending on education (e.g. Obama federal program but U.S. state budgets have to be balanced)
Maintain and increase aid commitments
Special measures to help poorest
Increase efficiency and reduce corruption 18

20. Reaffirm the right to education
Universal Declaration of Human Rights
Underpins all UNESCO’s work in education
Underpins Education for All
Rights always at risk during downturns 19

21. Reaffirm the centrality of education
Knowledge, skills and values to promote informed choices and a more sustainable future
Education is a catalyst for development. It:
Contributes to economic growth
Reduces poverty
Improves health, nutrition, income and livelihoods
Promotes citizenship and democratic participation
Is a condition for achieving all the Millennium Development Goals 20

22. Learning and skills for growth
Powerful evidence exists on the benefits of education for raising incomes, promoting growth and improving health
Additional year of schooling lifts average annual GDP growth by 0.37% (study in 50 countries); lifts earnings by 10%
Girls’ education lowers infant and child mortality rates, reduces fertility rates, promotes per capita income growth
Each additional year of education completed by a mother translates into her children remaining longer in school
Education quality has an impact on economic returns for households (International Adult Literacy Survey)
18 will achieve it by 2015
9 will achieve it by 2025
→ But:
-Inequality in education is a cause of wider income inequalities
-Low skilled workers have even greater problems in finding jobs (OECD)
-Wage gaps have widened between people with tertiary education and those at lower attainment levels (ADB, 2007) 21

23. Monitor education situation
Standard reporting (UIS, OECD) high quality but not timely
Have launched quick and dirty UNESCO survey on impact of crisis on education
Need to work with UIS and other partners to rapidly establish monitoring mechanism
Could be long-term gain in statistical reporting as a result 22

24. Ensure policies open opportunities, not the opposite: doing more than business as usual
Address inequalities through focus on most vulnerable and disadvantaged
Ensure relevance of learning to personal, social and economic needs
Improve education quality: a new deal for teachers
Link adult illiteracy to micro-finance, income-generation and life skills
Upgrade vocational education and skills training for youth and adults to help stem youth unemployment
Integrate education into poverty-reduction strategies
Advocate for increased aid levels and more effective aid 23

25. Acting on exclusion’s causes
Poverty
Child Labour
Gender
Disability
Ethnic belonging, linguistic minority
Living in isolated/remote areas
Conflict and post-conflict situations, natural disasters 24

26. Acting early pays off
‘It is a rare public policy initiative that promotes fairness and social justice and at the same time promotes productivity in the economy and in society at large. Investing in disadvantaged young children is such a policy.’
James Heckman, Nobel economics laureate
Most rigorous studies on benefits come from developed countries
U.S. High/Scope Perry study of low-income African-American children
-higher IQ at age 5
-enhanced success at school
-higher earning at age 40
High returns to programmes in India, Egypt, Colombia, Bolivia; returns greatest for poorest and most disadvantaged children
Programmes have impact on nutrition, health, cognitive development and school achievement of disadvantaged children
High/Scope Perry study carried out in the 1960s. A longitudinal study that followed participants and a control group through to age 40 25

27. Safety nets, targeting and social protection
Targeted approaches existed before the crisis. Such programs must be maintained and expanded with safeguards to ensure that they reach the right beneficiaries
Conditional cash transfers
-Mexico’s Progresa/Oportunidades reaches over 5 million children
-Brazil’s Bolsa Escola reaches over 16 million children
-South Africa’s support program improved nutrition for children
School grants (Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania) to cover losses from abolition of school fees
National financing formulas taking into account poverty, education and health indicators
Measures to improve efficiency and reduce corruption 26

28. A global teacher shortage
An estimated 18 million additional teachers are needed to achieve universal primary education by 2015
→ Probable gap at secondary level with increasing participation 27

29. Forging a new deal for teachers
Demand for education is there. Enrolments will continue to rise in developing regions. How can we make teaching the profession of the future?
Key policy issues: -explore different training models /use of ICTs
-different entry points throughout life into teaching profession
-improving wages and status of teachers
-incentives to work in difficult circumstances
-rewards, recognition and professional development opportunities
Teachers also impart values: learning to live together, sustainable development
Launch of new international Task Force on Teachers for Education for All
Initiative in sub-Saharan Africa (TTISSA) to improve national teacher policies 28

30. Rethinking technical and vocational education
Youth unemployment is high in many developing countries. This is a time to find a more flexible and suited match between the worlds of work and learning
Education for work: what competences and skills?
Skills for employability
Entrepreneurial education
New UNESCO TVET strategy is an opportunity to provide policy guidance to governments and donors 29

31. Participation, research and social responsibility in higher education
A vital contribution to prosperity
Participation rates of 40 to 50% considered vital for economic growth – but 5% Africa, 11% in South and West Asia, 22% in Arab States, 25% in Asia-Pacific
Inclusion critical for future
Reservoir of future professional talent
Importance of quality assurance, accreditation and recognitition of qualifications in context of diversification, growth of cross-border providers and ICTs
Social responsibility: knowledge and skills to address social, economic and scientific issues – climate change, agricultural development, curriculum development
Promotion of regional spaces for research and knowledge-sharing
Diversifying funding base, ensuring autonomy and accountability
18 will achieve it by 2015
9 will achieve it by 2025
Paris, France: 5-8 July 2009
‘The New Dynamics of Higher Education and Research for Societal Change and Development’
World Conference on Higher Education 30

32. Promote lifelong learning
Scale up relevant literacy and skills programmes for youth and adults
-More flexible and open formal and non-formal learning
-Link literacy programs to micro-finance schemes and life skills
-Partnerships /bridges with world of work and non-state sector
-Relevant curricula and use of ICTs
-Development of lifelong learning policies
Belém, Brazil: May 2009
‘Learning and Living for a Viable Future: the Power of Adult Learning’
CONFINTEA VI - Sixth International Conference on Adult Education 31

33. More aid and better governance
Donors are not delivering on commitments
Donors falling short of 2010 commitments: meeting these requires additional US$30 billion
In 2006: aid to basic education US$5.1bn (same as 2004)
Aid to basic education in low income countries: US$3.8bn but US$11bn needed annually to meet EFA goals
Key questions:
Targeting: is aid going to the right places? Effectiveness: is aid making a difference?
Alignment: attuned to national priorities? 34

34. The risks of a short-term vision
Losing gains
Increasing poverty
Increasing inequalities
Increasing social tensions
Increasing mismatch between skills and market 35

35. Short-Term Synergies Opportunities for Countercyclical spending:
Inclusion as a guiding principle
Teachers: a public employment niche
Improving Technical and Vocational Education, especially entrepreneurial education 36

36. To sum up, key responses
Policies to promote Inclusion and counter further Exclusion
Monitor the Impact of the Crisis
Advocate for Education -Education as a Right -Education for Growth -Maintain or increase spending -Maintain or increase aid
Pro-poor policies for Education -Emphasize Inclusion -Invest in Teachers -Link between education, health, gender, skills training, employment and poverty reduction
18 will achieve it by 2015
9 will achieve it by 2025 37

37. “Everyone has the right to education”
Article 26, Universal Declaration of Human Rights 38