1. Employment Outlook for Ontario: Opportunities in the Resource Sector
Marie-Christine Bernard
Associate Director, Provincial and Territorial Forecast Service, The Conference Board of Canada
May 13th, 2015

2. Background
With this project, the Conference Board of Canada is looking at labour market demand associated with Canada’s major resource development projects over the next 15 years.
We monitor closely new developments in all segments of the resource sector in all provinces and territories (oil and gas, metal ore mining and non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying as well as forestry and agriculture).
Value of the major projects
In total, investment spending is estimate to be $431 billion over the next ten years.
About $360 billion are energy related projects (oil, pipelines, LNG, electricity generation)
About $71 billion are mineral mines.
$17 billion (energy and minerals) are in the territories.

3. Methodology
To derive labour demand, we estimated the economic impact of the major projects expected to get underway in the resource sector.
We used our detailed econometric forecasting models for each of the 10 provincial economies and three territories to establish a forecast for the resource sector from 2015 to 2030.
With a forecast in hand we were able to derive an employment forecast. We broke out the employment forecast in two groups: expansion and replacement demand.
Finally we disseminated the forecast results even further by estimating the demand for workers by occupation.

4. Results We will be presenting the results for Ontario.
We are able to derive where labour demand pressures are going to be felt.
This will help to establish what trades and skills will be most in demand as a result of the expansion in the resource sector and the ageing of the workforce.

5. Assumptions for Mining Forecast

6. Ontario’s Mining Sector Forecast (millions, $2007)
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

7. Employment in Ontario’s Mining Sector (number of people)
Source: Statistics Canada.

8. Ontario’s Forestry Sector Forecast (millions, $2007)
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

9. Employment in Ontario’s Forestry Sector (number of people)
Source: Statistics Canada.

10. Ontario: Cumulative Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sectors to 2030

11. Ontario’s Workers Age Group Distribution
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

12. Conclusion
Mining industry is a major employer of First Nations, Inuit and Métis people.
The mining industry still tends to under-utilize this talent group.
Pressure to replace retiring workers.
Resource sector much compete against other sectors for talent.