1. Concluding Observations
Political Science 61 /
Chicano/Latino Studies 64
Lecture 18
December 4, 2007

2. Second Exam In class, December 6 Format
Essay (67 percent of the grade)
Identifications (33 percent of the grade)
Answer 3 of the 6 IDs (11 points each)
Define and identify a significance to the study of minority politics

3. The Persistence of Racial Politics
Persistence of racial bias among some in majority population
Persistence of the legacies of past discrimination
“Second generation” remedies
Ongoing reinforcement of “minority” population through immigration
Populations that bring divergent human capital and need support to succeed
And, have lower than average rates of political engagement challenging the vitality of pluralism

4. Challenge by Immigrant/ Minority Populations Has Been True Throughout U.S. History
What’s different today?
Numbers
Leaders
New models of cross-group cooperation
These create the foundations for a new racial/ethnic politics
But, require ongoing and increasing societal investment (see Tienda article assigned for today)

5. Numbers

6. Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)

7. State Minority Populations, 2000-202557 25 42

8. Growth Assumes Continued Immigration
That would seem to be the path the U.S. is on
Proposals for a “guest worker” program and increased border enforcement
If passed, will increase immigration
Passage in Congress will require support from moderate Democrats, meaning some legalization
Little conversation about changing the level of immigration to permanent residence
Without changes to law, eligibility for immigration to permanent residence will increase over time
That said, if history is a model, at some point, immigration will slow

9. Also Assumes Maintenance of Current Race/Ethnic Definitions
New dynamic – multiracial population
Currently small, but will grow
Intermarriage/relationship rates
Black-White
Asian-White
Hispanic-White
Marriage
3.93%
12.50%
14.01%
Opposite Sex Unmarried
8.80%
34.14%
18.86%

10. Leaders

11. New Minority Elected Leadership
Since the passage of the VRA, energy has been focused on electing leaders to office
Effects have been dramatic
, 520 percent increase in Black elected officials nationally
, 237 percent increased in Latino officeholders in six states (AZ, CA, FL, NM, NY, TX)
, 55 percent increase nationally

12. Black Elected Officials, 1970-2001

13. Latino Elected Officials, 1973-2004
change, +237 percent

14. But,
Blacks and Latinos hold only a small share of elective offices nationally
1.5 percent (1 in 66) nationally is Black
0.9 percent (1 in 111) nationally is Latino
Underrepresented even in large states,
Black
Mississippi – 18.9% officeholders (34% of population)
Alabama – 16.7% of officeholders (25% of population)
Latino
New Mexico—32.0% officeholders (42.1% population)
Texas—7.3% officeholders (32.0% population)
California—5.2% officeholders (32.4% population)

15. Sources of the Next Generation of Leadership
Leaders of immigrant organizations
Community leaders seeking new venues
Local officeholders preparing to seek higher office
Antonio Villaraigosa
Rocky Delgadillo
Leaders in the right position at the right time
Condoleezza Rice
Bill Richardson
Routes to leadership not previously available – business, the military, and universities

16. Opportunities for Cross-Group Alliance Around Shared Issues

17. New Electoral Models of Cross-Group Cooperation
The Villaraigosa “coalition”
An elite coalition that may form a mass coalition
Villaraigosa is now a national Latino leader – arguably the first non-black “minority” spokesperson
The Obama presidential campaign
Like Villaraigosa, he too is a national leader
Both national political parties now seeking minority support
Illinois 2004 Senate race
State parties (particularly Republicans) less likely to reach out – four statewide black Republican candidates in 2006

18. Other Institutions Also Creating Cross-Group Coalitions
Unions (in major cities) organizing immigrants and workers
Service sector unions critical to:
Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles
Spring immigration rallies
Churches increasingly seeing growth from immigrant communities
Both Protestant and Catholic
Again, critical to spring rallies
Media, more ethnic specific, but an institution that can be tapped to mobilize immigrant/ethnic communities

19. Conclusions

20. Foundations of Future U.S. Racial and Ethnic Politics
Legacies of the Civil Rights Movement
Core goals of the movement succeeded
Statutory exclusion unlawful
Minority voices at all levels of governance
“Second generation” protections under challenge—courts, electorates, and legislatures

21. Foundations (2) Large-scale immigration
Will continue for foreseeable future
Ongoing popular opposition (including among racial and ethnic minorities)
But, immigration creates a unique coalition of business, upper-income liberal voters, and ethnic group leaders
Shift national demographic balance
Ends era of Black-White “minority” politics

22. Building on These Foundations
Rights and gains can be taken away (lesson of first part of course)
Demography isn’t destiny
Numbers don’t guarantee representation/power
Coalition politics isn’t automatic
Ture and Hamilton model—groups form coalitions when each sees it in its interest
Coalitions form around issues
Identities change over time
Today’s definitions of race/ethnicity will change
Pan-ethnic identities may be particularly fluid

23. Shaping the Future Organization Enough said?
The VRA guarantees that all groups will be able to organize politically
Post-1965 immigration adds to the population to organize
Minority communities now have a network of leaders that will be hard to disassemble
But, racial/ethnic identity may be replaced by other identities

24. If You Liked This Course …
Political Science 124B – Latinos in U.S. Politics
Political Science 124D – Race and Citizenship in America
Political Science 126A – Mexican Americans and Politics
Political Science 126C – U.S. Immigration Policy
Special topics classes (offered regularly)
Black Politics
Asian American Politics