1. Predictors of early school leaving in Flemish secondary education P&V conference on early school leaving and youth unemployment
Mieke Van Houtte

2. Starting point
For decades: problem of student unqualified dropout in Western education
Flanders: 10% to 15% of students in secondary school leave prematurely
(Steunpunt Studie- en Schoolloopbanen, Van Landeghem et al.)
To prevent dropout: insight into predictors necessary
Definition dropout:
Leaving secondary education prior to completion
without qualification, diploma or minimal credential

3. International research into predictors:
push-factors and pull-factors
Example pull-factor: paid parttime work (all else equal)
(VLO )

4. social risk factors and academic risk factors
Correlates of intention to dropout Flemish secondary education (VLO )
social
academic

5. Intention to dropout by track
(VLO )

6. Association track position and risk to dropout?
Flemish secondary education = hierarchical
 different tracks
ordered according to level of abstraction and theory
consequence: technical and vocational bottom of ladder
* knowledge society:  blue collar work little esteemed
* future perspectives

7. - technical and vocational education often negative choice
- selection criterium  purely cognitive
- in educational system, technical or vocational = failure

8. differentiation-polarisation theory
(Hargreaves, Lacey, Ball, Rosenbaum, …)
differentiation: segregation of students based on academic criteria
polarisation: origin of opposite groups of students,
one group characterised as pro-school,
the other as counter-school

9. ‘higher’ tracks = status
= positive experience
‘lower’ tracks = status-loss
= failure
 resistance against system
* rejecting values system is based on
(namely: hard working and competence)
* looking for alternative sources of status
result = counter-schoolculture
Cascade reinforces effect!

10. Study attitudes by track (VLO 2004-2005)

11. alternative sources of status: ‘what adults do’ (Willis, 1977)
Alternative sources of status by track % (VLO )
Uitgaan: een keer per maand of meer
Veel uitgaan: meerdere keren per week

13.  interplay student-teacher-culture

15. Conclusion Prevention of early school leaving requires
knowledge on predictors
Next to social and academic risk factors, in Flanders:
vocational track as main predictor
Important factors in vocational education:
teacher support and sense of futility