1. Self-Generation Forecast CED 2017 Preliminary
Demand Analysis Working Group
Sacramento, CA
7/14/2017
Asish Gautam
Supply Analysis Office
Energy Assessments /

2. Changes to PV Forecast Methodology
Residential Sector:
Incorporates TOU rates/periods for IOUs and SMUD
Using average annual residential rate for other POUs
Rates and periods based on utility filings regarding proposed default TOU pilots
Disaggregated POUs subject to CEC IRP process
Residential profiles also further segregated by annual electric usage

3. Changes to PV Forecast Methodology
Adoption based on revised cost-benefit approach
Switch from payback period to monthly bill savings for IOU/SMUD
Updated payback curve from CPUC/E3 NEM tool for other POUs
Better fit to historical data

4. Adoption Curve – Monthly Bill Savings

5. Adoption Curve – Payback Period

6. Changes to PV Forecast Methodology
Commercial Sector:
Similar to Residential sector – disaggregated POUs subject to CEC IRP process
Revised adoption curve based on payback (NEM 2.0 tool)

7. Other Updates NEM: Approach follows 2015 IEPR
Options presented at March 17 DAWG workshop
Presented to JASC group on April 4/April 20
Low Demand: Assumes current NEM over forecast period
Mid Demand: Assumes exports credited at $0.10/kWh
High Demand: Same as Mid but adds $3/kW charge based on PV system size
Updated assumptions regarding Federal ITC

8. Statewide Results (PV Capacity- MW)

9. Statewide Results (PV Capacity - MW) – Planning Area and Scenario

10. Statewide Results (PV Energy - GWH) – Planning Area and Scenario

11. Statewide Results (Non-PV)

12. Statewide Battery Storage Capacity (MW)

13. CEC Battery Storage Model development ongoing
Adoption targets 3 segments:
Standalone battery storage
Battery storage paired with PV
Storage from past adopters of PV systems
Primarily focused on residential sector
5kW/15kWh
85% RTE
Using SGIP data used to prepare CED 2016 Update

14. CEC Battery Storage
Standalone storage operation based on retail rate arbitrage
Limited potential due to relatively small differential between peak/off-peak
Negligible differential in non-summer months
Storage paired with PV
Maximizes onsite use of PV before storing PV energy
Discharge based relative to retail TOU rates

15. Zero Net Energy Homes
Adoption in new construction based on cost-effectiveness rather than imposing fixed penetration to comply with regulations
PV system size provided by Efficiency Division

16. Zero Net Energy Homes

17. PV Forecast Comparison - PGE

18. PV Forecast Comparison - SDGE

19. PV Forecast Comparison - SCE