1. Global Aging: Impact on Human Resources for Health
Barbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN
Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health (APHA)
Interim Secretary General, World Federation of Public Health Associations (WFPHA)

2. Presentation Overview
Demographic overview & the age wave
World/Region/Country specific demographics
Impact on Human Resources for Health
Future Trends

3. This is the reality in the year 2005
The world stands on the threshold of a
demographic revolution called global aging.

4. The whole world is aging—and today’s developed countries are leading the way.
Year 2005

5. Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2
Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”
2.1

6. Life spans in the developed countries have risen dramatically.

7. Aging Exemplar
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. Latin America & the Caribbean
Total Population (in millions)
Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Men 67.2
Women 73.6
Median Age 24.4 years old
Total Fertility Rate 2.5 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

9. Latin America & the Caribbean
% Population Aged 60+
Men 7.2
Women 8.7
% 60+ Population in Labor Force
Men 47
Women 12
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

10. United States Total Population (in millions) - 293
 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Men
Women 80
Median Age
Men 34.5
Women 37.1
Total Fertility Rate 2.07 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

11. United States % Population Aged 60+ Men 15 Women 18
% 60+ Population in Labor Force
Men 23
Women 13
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

12. Canada Total Population (in millions) – 32.5
 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Men
Women 83.4
Median Age
Men 36.9
Women 38.8
Total Fertility Rate 1.16 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

13. Canada % Population Aged 60+ Men 16 Women 19
% 60+ Population in Labor Force
Men 19
Women 8
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

14. Mexico Total Population (in millions) – 106.2
 Life expectancy at birth (in years)
Men
Women 78.1
Median Age
Men 24
Women 25.8
Total Fertility Rate 2.45 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

15. Mexico % Population Aged 60+ % 60+ Population in Labor Force Men 7
Women 8
% 60+ Population in Labor Force
Men 65
Women 15
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);
AARP2005

16. Percentage Population age 60 and over by world region, 2000 & 2050
Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat

17. Median Age by World Region 1999 & 2050
Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat

18. The Challenge to Labor Shrinking Workforces & labor shortages
Aging workers
 Care demands & Needs
Pressure to ↑ immigration
↑ cross-border outsourcing

19. The Challenge to Labor Shrinking recruitment pool (in some countries)
mal-distribution: Understaffing in rural areas
Mal-distribution: Understaffing, both areas rural and inner-city
Effective skill mix and utilization

20. Nursing as a Case Study

21. Aging of the Nurse in US
Between 1983 and 1998 the average age of working RNs increased by 4.5 years to 41.9.
Thirty-five percent fewer full-time RNs are observed today when compared to similar age groups of RNs entering the workforce 20 years ago.

22. Aging US Nurse Workforce
Within 10 years, 40 percent of working RNs will be 50 years or older.
As those RNs retire, the supply of working RNs is projected to be 20 percent below requirements by the year 2020.

23. Aging US Nurse Workforce
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that jobs for RNs will grow 23 percent by That's faster than the average for all other occupations.
About half of the RN workforce will reach retirement age in the next 15 years.

24. Aging US Nurse Workforce
The average age of new RN graduates is 31.
They are entering the profession at an older age and will have fewer years to work than nurses traditionally have had.
RN enrollments in schools of nursing are down.
In fall 2000, entry-level BSN enrollment fell by 2.1 percent, dropping for the sixth year in a row, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing.

25. Variations in nurse population ratios
The variations can be a hundredfold difference
The average ratio in Europe, the region with the highest ratios, is 10 times that of the lowest regions –Africa and South East Asia.

26. Variations in nurse population ratios
The average ratio in North America is 10 times that in South America.
The average nurse: population ratio in high-income countries is almost eight times greater than in low-income countries.

27. Variations in nurse population ratios
The low availability of nurses in many developing countries is exacerbated by geographical mal-distribution – there are even fewer nurses available in rural and remote areas.

28. Variations in nurse population ratios in the Americas

29. Wisdom At Work Support and Protect an Older Workforce
Enhance the workforce’s effectiveness through  technology

30. THANK YOU