1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization
Chapter 11
Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Key topics Role of public opinion in politics Polls:
How is public opinion measured?
What are flaws in the measurements?
What influences our political outlooks?
How do different groups of people identify as liberal, conservative, moderate?

3. Influencing Public Opinion
Is an important goal of politicians
Historic examples
Uncle Tom’s Cabin
CPI during WWI
Embedding journalists in Iraq War

4. Public Opinion on War
Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.

5. Hermann Goering,
Nazi party leader, second in command of the Third Reich, and commander of the Air Force, in an interview during the Nuremberg Trials after WWII. He was convicted of crimes against humanity. Committed suicide before his sentenced hanging.

6. How are polls used in politics?
To measure public opinion
To influence public opinion
To inform and influence politicians
To track elections

7. What are potential problems with polls?
What questions are asked?
Wording
Is it leading?
Is it misleading?
Is it unclear?
Does it ask more than one question?
Intensity choices in answers
Gathering respondents
Self selection
Means of finding respondents
Technology
Timing

8. Good polls Appropriate wording Accurate sample: random
Still a margin of error and mistakes:
Margin of Error: 3-5% usually

9. Figure 11.5- Opinion on Gas Taxes
Back

10. Election polling Tracking changes over time and predicting
Has gotten more accurate
Still imperfect

11. Figure 11.4- The Gallup Poll

12. Why were New Hampshire polls wrong in showing Obama ahead of Clinton?
Close: margin of error
Did polls influence voters instead of just measuring what they thought?
Many voters were still unsure when answering: made a pick but also said they might change their minds.

13. Poll Example NYTimes/CBS poll on the Tea Party

14. Factors in Political Opinion Formation
What factors influence your political values?
What public events influenced your political beliefs? How?

15. Factors in Political Socialization: Which were most significant influences for you?
Family
School and Peers
Media
Impact of Events
Social Groups
Religion
Economic Status
Race, Ethnicity
Gender (p 401 – differences)
Age
Region of the Country

16. Figure 11.2- Religious Self-Identification

17. AV- Racial and Ethnic Attitudes

18. Figure 11.3- Views on Hurricane Katrina
Back

19. Table 11.1- Gender Differences
Back

20. How we form Political Opinions
Personal Beliefs
Personal Benefits: What’s in it for me?
Political Knowledge
Cues from Leaders

21. Cues from Leaders
“Followers” are “inclined to rally to the support of the president no matter what he does” because of
The “majesty” of the office
Low public knowledge (especially on foreign policy)

22. Table 11.2- Political Knowledge

23. Knowledge and Public Opinion
The less people know, the more their opinion can be influenced (or manipulated)

24. Timing of Polls in US re: Iraq War
LA Times Poll, Dec, 2002: 72% said president had not provided enough evidence to justify starting a war with Iraq. 58% supported a ground attack (vs. 64% in August 2002)
March 2003: 66% of Americans approved military action
Days after the invasion: 80%
July 2004: 37% approved the president’s handling of the situation in Iraq

25. Figure 11.8- Public Opinion on Iraq

26. The end
Rest of Slides are extra

27. Figure 11.1- First-Year Student Ideology
Back

28. Figure 11.7- Daily Tracking Poll