1. Hypothesis Testing •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ••
Dr. Justin Bateh ••
Custom animation effects: dotted line with text fade by letter
(Basic)
To reproduce the text effects on this slide, do the following:
On the Insert tab, in the Text group, click Text Box, and then on the slide, drag to draw a text box that spans the entire width of the slide.
On the Home tab, in the Slides group, click Layout, and then click Blank.
On the Insert tab, in the Text group, click Symbol. In the Symbol dialog box, do the following:
In the Subset list, select General Punctuation.
In the Font list, select (normal text).
In the Character Code box, enter 2022 to select BULLET, and then click Insert.
In the text box, select the text, and then on the Home tab, in the Font group do the following:
Click Insert 33 more times until there is a row of 34 bullets in the text box.
In the Font list, select Arial Black.
On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and then do the following:
Click the arrow next to Font Color, and then under Theme Colors click White, Background 1 (first row, first option from the left).
In the Font Size list, select 44.
Click Align to Slide.
On the Insert tab, in the Text group, click Text Box. Drag to draw a text box on the slide.
Click Align Middle.
Click Align Center.
Enter and select the text. On the Home tab, in the Font group, do the following:
In the Font Size box, enter 50.
In the Font list, select Corbel.
Click Bold.
Select the second text box. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and then do the following:
With the text still selected, on the Home tab, in the Paragraph group, click Center.
To reproduce the background effects on this slide, do the following:
Right-click the slide background area, and then click Format Background. In the Format Background dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, select Gradient fill in the Fill pane, and then do the following:
Under Gradient stops, click Add or Remove until two stops appear in the drop-down list.
Click the button next to Direction, and then click From Center (third option from the left).
In the Type list, select Radial.
Also under Gradient stops, customize the gradient stops that you added as follows:
Select Stop 1 from the list, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors select Blue, Accent 1, Darker 25% (fifth row, fifth option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 0%.
Select Stop 2 from the list, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors select Black, Text 1 (first row, second option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 100%.
To reproduce the animation effects on this slide, do the following:
On the slide, select the first text box. In the Custom Animation task pane, do the following:
On the Animations tab, in the Animations group, click Custom Animation.
Select the animation effect (fly-in effect for the first text box). Click the arrow to the right of the selected effect, and then click Effect Options. In the Fly In dialog box, do the following:
Click Add Effect, point to Entrance, and then click More Effects. In the Add Entrance Effect dialog box, under Basic, click Fly In.
On the Effect tab, do the following:
In the Animate text list, select By Letter.
In the Direction list, select From Left.
On the Timing tab, do the following:
In the % delay between letters box, enter 10.
In the Speed list, select 0.5 seconds (Very Fast).
In the Start list, select With Previous.
Select the second animation effect (fade effect for the first text box). Click the arrow to the right of the selected effect, and then click Effect Options. In the Fade dialog box, do the following:
Click Add Effect, point to Exit, and then click More Effects. In the Add Exit Effect dialog box, under Subtle, click Fade.
In the Delay box, enter 1.5.
On the slide, select the second text box. In the Custom Animation task pane, do the following.
Select the third animation effect (fade effect for the second text box). Click the arrow to the right of the selected effect, and then click Effect Options. In the Fade dialog box, do the following:
Click Add Effect, point to Entrance, and then click More Effects. In the Add Entrance Effect dialog box, under Subtle, click Fade.
In the % delay between letters box, enter 6.
In the Delay box, enter 2.

2. Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Research is designed to answer questions, and statistics are the tools to help us reach answers and make decisions. Most often, research questions are addressed via hypothesis testing.
Hypothesis testing are procedures designed for determining whether a hypothesis is supported by data. To do this, we will use inferential statistics that are used to draw conclusions about populations based on data collected from samples.
Inferential statistics are built upon probabilities, specifically determining the probability that the data represents a particular population.

3. Hypothesis Testing Steps1
State hypothesis in your own words. 2
Design the study 3
Create Statistical hypotheses 4
Select the appropriate statistical test

4. Imagine that a researcher wants to investigate whether entrepreneurs who exercise daily have higher sales revenue in their company.

5. Step 1 State the hypothesis using your own words
Hypotheses are reasoned predictions about the outcomes of a study. It is important that researchers not only consider what they expect or hope to happen, but also all of the possible outcomes of their researcher and data analysis. Therefore, when stating research hypotheses it is useful to state a set of hypotheses that are both mutually exclusive (complete independent, and only one can be true) and exhaustive (no other possibilities exist).

6. For our example, there are 3 possibilities:1
Those who exercise daily do not have higher a difference in sales revenue in their company. 2
Those who exercise daily have lower sales revenue in their company. 3
Those who exercise daily have higher sales revenue in their company.

7. Step 2
Design the Study
Once all of the possible hypotheses/outcomes have been formalized, a proper research study can be designed to effectively “test” the hypotheses. The topic of research design is not the focus in this course, but I will briefly emphasize the importance of the quality of the statistical analysis, which is greatly dependent upon the quality of the research study from which the data originated. In other words, statistics cannot make up for poorly conducted research.

8. Regarding our example, let’s imagine that a researcher designs to obtain a random sample of entrepreneurs who exercise daily to determine if such individuals have higher than average sales revenue. Because it is now known that the average sales revenue for a company is $100,000, evidence supporting the researchers prediction would be if the entrepreneurs who exercised average in revenue greater than $100,000.

9. Step 3 Create Statistical Hypotheses
Statistical hypotheses are based upon the written hypotheses previously stated in step 1, but describe the population parameters of interest using statistical symbols. More specifically, there are two types of statistical hypotheses: the null and alternative.

10. Null Hypothesis
symbolized as H0
the hypothesis that no difference or no difference of interest and thus always includes an equal sign
Alternative Hypothesis
symbolized as HA
the hypothesis that corresponds to the researchers prediction (In this sense, the alternative hypothesis is often called the research hypothesis.)

11. Alternative hypotheses can be either one-tailed or two-tailed.
One-tailed alternative hypotheses
are set forth when the research predictions the direction of the expected difference (up or down)
Two-tailed alternative hypotheses
the researcher does not predict the direction of the difference but simply predicts there is a difference

12. For our example, we indicated that the researcher expects entrepreneurs who exercise daily to perform BETTER in sales revenue. Therefore, this situation calls for a one-tail alternative hypothesis.
The null hypothesis would be that the entrepreneurs who exercise daily do not have higher sales revenue of $100,000 in their company
The alternative hypothesis would be that the entrepreneurs who exercise daily do have higher sales revenue of $100,000 in their company

13. Step 4 Select the appropriate statistical test
Once the hypothesis are stated, the study is designed, the statistical hypotheses are stated, and the data are collected it is time to analyze the data to determine whether there is evidence for the null or alternative hypothesis. Such evidence is obtained through use of inferential hypothesis tests. These include z-tests, t-tests, Analysis of Variance, and Regression. You will learn about these later.

14. The Logic of Hypothesis Testing
It is important to understand that it is impossible to statistically demonstrate or prove that something is “true”, instead we use statistics to determine how likely something is to be true. This is why probability is important in statistics. In order to determine a probability regarding how likely a hypothesis is to be true, we must make an assumption. Specifically, when conducting statistical hypothesis tests, we start by assuming that the NULL is true, and then determine how likely our data is to have occurred given this assumption. Because we assume the null is true, whenever we conduct a test we are testing the null hypothesis.

15. The researcher then makes a decision:
Reject the null: if the data are too unlikely too occur when the null is true
Fail to reject the null: if the data are relatively likely to have occurred when the null is true

16. Statistical Significance: p < .05
You may have heard the phrase “p is less than .05” in the context of statistical analysis.
P<.05 simply indicates that when the null hypothesis is true, the probability of obtaining the data are less than 5 out of This criterion, p<.05 is the most common one that researchers use to determine when to reject the null hypothesis.

17. P > .05 – accept the null (or fail to reject)
Therefore, if P <.05, we conclude that it is probably safe to reject the null hypothesis and further conclude that there is a statistically significant evidence in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
P < .05 – reject the null
Custom animation effects: rotating tubes with text
(Intermediate)
To reproduce the first shape effect on this slide, do the following:
Select the rectangle. Under Drawing Tools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, do the following:
On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Shapes, and then under Rectangles click Rectangle (first option from the left). On the slide, drag to draw a rectangle.
On the Home tab, in the Slides group, click Layout, and then click Blank.
In the Shape Width box, enter 7.42”.
In the Shape Height box, enter 0.75”.
On the Home tab, in the bottom right corner of the Drawing group, click the Format Shape dialog box launcher. In the Format Shape dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, select Gradient fill in the Fill pane, and then do the following:
Under Drawing Tools, on the Format tab, in the Shape Styles group, click Shape Effects, point to Reflection, and then under Reflection Variations click Tight Reflection, touching.
Drag the rectangle above the middle of the slide, and then align the right edge with the right edge of the slide.
In the Direction list, select Linear Up (second row, second option from the left).
In the Type list, select Linear.
Also under Gradient stops, customize the gradient stops as follows:
Under Gradient stops, click Add or Remove until four stops appear in the drop-down list.
Select Stop 1 from the list, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click Blue, Accent 1, Lighter 40% (fourth row, fifth option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 0%.
Select Stop 2 from the list, and then do the following:
Select Stop 3 from the list, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click White, Background 1, Darker 5% (second row, first option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 26%.
Select Stop 4 from the list, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click Black, Text 1, Lighter 50% (second row, second option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 80%.
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click White, Background 1, Darker 35% (fifth row, first option from the left).
In the Stop position box, enter 100%.
Also in the Format Shape dialog box, click Line Color in the left pane. In the Line Color pane, select No line.
Also in the Format Shape dialog box, click Shadow in the left pane. In the Shadow pane, click the button next to Presets, under Outer click Offset Center, and then do the following:
In the Transparency box, enter 60%.
In the Angle box, enter 0°
In the Blur box, enter 5 pt.
In the Size box, enter 102%.
On the slide, select the rectangle. On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow under Paste, and then click Duplicate.
In the Distance box, enter 0 pt.
Also in the Format Shape dialog box, click Shadow in the left pane. In the Shadow pane, click the button next to Presets, and then under No Shadow click No Shadow.
On the Home tab, in the bottom right corner of the Drawing group, click the Format Shape dialog box launcher. In the Format Shape dialog box, click Fill in the left pane. In the Fill pane, click the button next to Direction, and then click Linear Down (first row, second option from the left).
Select the second, duplicate rectangle. Under Drawing Tools, on the Format tab, in the Shape Styles group, click Shape Effects, point to Reflection, and then click No Reflection.
In the Selection and Visibility pane, press and hold CTRL, and then select both rectangles. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and then do the following:
On the Home tab, in the Editing group, click Select, and then click Selection Pane.
On the slide, drag the second rectangle until it is directly on top of the first rectangle.
Click Align Selected Objects.
Click Align Middle.
Click Align Center.
To reproduce the first text effect on this slide, do the following:
Enter the first line of text on the slide, and then select the text. On the Home tab, in the Font group, do the following:
On the Insert tab, in the Text group, click Text Box. On the slide, drag to draw a text box.
Click Bold.
In the Font Size box, enter 26.
In the Font list, select Trebuchet MS.
On the slide, select the text box. Under Drawing Tools, on the Format tab, in the WordArt Styles group, click Text Effects, point to Shadow, and then click Shadow Options. In the Format Text Effects dialog box, in the Shadow pane, click the button next to Presets, under Inner click Inside Diagonal Bottom Left (third row, first option from the left), and then do the following:
On the Home tab, in the Paragraph group, click Align Text Left to align the text left in the text box.
Click the arrow next to Font Color, and then under Theme Colors click Black, Text 1, Lighter 25% (fourth row, second option from the left).
In the Transparency box, enter 21%.
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click White, Background 1 (first row, first option from the left).
In the Angle box, enter 90°.
On the slide, drag the text box onto the second (top) rectangle.
In the Distance box, enter 4 pt.
To animate the first shape and text effects on this slide, do the following:
In the Selection and Visibility pane, select the third object in the list (the first rectangle you created). In the Custom Animation task pane, do the following:
On the Animations tab, in the Animations group, click Custom Animation.
Click Add Effect, point to Entrance, and then click More Effects. In the Add Entrance Effect dialog box, under Moderate, click Ascend.
Select the animation effect (ascend effect for the first rectangle). Under Modify: Ascend, do the following:
In the Selection and Visibility pane, select the second object in the list (the second rectangle you created). In the Custom Animation task pane, do the following:
In the Speed list, select Fast.
In the Start list, select With Previous.
Select the second animation effect (fade effect for the second rectangle). Under Modify: Fade, do the following:
Click Add Effect, point to Entrance, and then click More Effects. In the Add Entrance Effect dialog box, under Subtle, click Fade.
In the Start list, select After Previous.
In the Selection and Visibility pane, select the first object in the list (text box). In the Custom Animation task pane, do the following:
Select the third animation effect (stretch effect for the text box). Under Modify: Stretch, do the following:
Click Add Effect, point to Entrance, and then click More Effects. In the Add Entrance Effect dialog box, under Moderate, click Stretch.
In the Direction list, select From Top.
To reproduce the other animated shapes and text on this slide, do the following:
With the second group of objects still selected on the slide, on the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow under Paste, and then click Duplicate.
With the second group of objects still selected on the slide, drag them under the first group of objects, aligning the right edge of the rectangles with the right edge of the slide.
Press and hold CTRL, and then in the Selection and Visibility pane, select the two rectangles and the text box. On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow under Paste, and then click Duplicate.
Click in the second and third duplicate text boxes and edit the text.
With the third group of objects still selected on the slide, drag them under the second group of objects, aligning the right edge of the rectangles with the right edge of the slide.
To reproduce the background effects on this slide, do the following:
Right-click the slide background area, and then click Format Background. In the Format Background dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, select Gradient fill in the Fill pane, and then do the following:
Click the button next to Direction, and then click From Center (third option from the left).
In the Type list, select Radial.
Also under Gradient stops, customize the gradient stops that you added as follows:
Under Gradient stops, click Add or Remove until two stops appear in the drop-down list.
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click White, Background 1, Darker 50% (fifth row, first option from the left).
Click the button next to Color, and then under Theme Colors click Black, Text 1, Lighter 5% (fifth row, second option from the left).
P > .05 – accept the null (or fail to reject)

18. Errors and Outcomes
As stated, a researcher can conclude only 1 of 2 things: either to reject the null. However, when we consider the accuracy of these decisions and the possibility for error (making an incorrect decision) there are two errors that can occur.

19. Type I Errors Type II Errors
occur when the researcher rejects a true null hypothesis
Stated differently, this is when a researcher concludes that there is a statistically significant result but the conclusion was made in error because it does not reflect the true nature of the world.
Type II Errors
occur when the researcher fails to reject a false null hypothesis
In other words, the researcher should have rejected the null hypothesis because it is not true, but failed to do so.

20. References:
Tagler, M. (2009). Understanding Basic Statistics with Spreadsheets. Pearson Custom Publishing