Where do students go and what do they do? A preliminary analysis

Where do students go and what do they do? A preliminary analysis
Pathways in Ontario and Canada Where do students go and what do they do? A preliminary analysis Leesa Wheelahan, Ruth Childs, Jinli Yang, Eric Lavigne, Amanda Brijmohan & Gavin Moodie April 21, 2015

Preliminary findings Want to test them with you Do they make sense?
What are the implications for policy & practice at jurisdictional, institutional, departmental & course level?

Methods National Graduate Survey
(cohort: 2013/Graduated 2009/2010) Sample size: 28, 715 graduates We analysed for Ontario and all Canada the population of graduates in 2009/10 with a Canadian PSE qualification had a prior Canadian PSE qualification had a prior Canadian PSE qualification in the same field links to the labour market Data used to inform this study were derived from the 2013 National Graduate Survey (NGS). In line with the proposed research question, data yielded from The NGS survey were designed to investigate relationships between post-secondary education and the labour market, by looking at impact factors like programs of study, qualification level, and their effect on student pathways to employment. A stratified sample of 28, 715 graduates was drawn from a population of 431, 921 graduates who had graduated or completed requirements for degrees, diplomas, or certificate from a Canadian public postsecondary education institution in 2009/2010. The sample was stratified by 3 variables, province, level of certification, and field of study. For the purposes of this study, provincial and national data were contrasted, by examining the Canadian and Ontario data.

Fields of education Broad Fields using Statistics Canada’s groupings
Subfields Occupation + Regulation Limitations: Confidence Intervals. Focus on suggesting trends and trajectories Prior Education Field analysis looked at broad fields of education and more specified Subfields of Education that were regulated, and had tighter Occupation-related links. Fields of Education were defined by the 12 primary groupings outlined by CIP (2001/2011) Limitations on precise confidence interval (CI) calculations and interpretation opted researchers to manually derive them from Co-efficients of Variation provided in NGS Appendix J, while cross referencing calculated values with jackknife-derived values from the Public use microdata file (PUMF). For a more in-depth discussion regarding issues surrounding Valid Skip omissions and Confidence Interval calculations, refer to the appendices. Notably, there are limitations on precise Confidence Interval interpretations, (an in depth discussion on barriers faced when estimating confidence intervals for the data is addressed in the appendices) with this being the case, the current analysis is focused on suggestive trajectories and trends, not on precise estimations of transfer.

Broad fields of study by sector

Sector-Level Transfer-Pathways
Ontario Canada Number % of transfers College grads, prior college 9,640 18 19 College grads, prior uni 7,020 13 9 College grads, prior PSE 16,660 30 28 Uni grads, prior college 9,160 17 29 Uni grads, prior uni 29,240 53 43 Uni graduates, prior PSE 38,400 70 72 Total grads, prior PSE 55,060 100 So what is the data telling us? We first wanted to conduct a broad field and qualification history analysis of all graduates in 2009/2010. What broad fields students are coming from, and at what level they were bringing with them. We divided our analysis first by sector (College and University) and then conducted a comparison between graduates from Ontario, and all of Canada. We subsequently analyzed 4 main pathways: College grads who had a prior qual. At the college level College grads who had a prior qual in University University grads who had a prior qual in college University grads who had a prior qual in uni.

Ontario Canada Number % of transfers College grads, prior college 9,640 18 19 College grads, prior uni 7,020 13 9 College grads, prior PSE 16,660 30 28 Uni grads, prior college 9,160 17 29 Uni grads, prior uni 29,240 53 43 Uni graduates, prior PSE 38,400 70 72 Total grads, prior PSE 55,060 100 The first take home that I want to draw your attention too, is that the bulk of grads who have a prior qualification, are concentrated within the university sector (Same pattern seen in both Ontario and Canada, Specifically, the university-university pathway seems to be the strongest, more so in Ontario, with 53% vs. 43% in all of Canada.

Ontario Canada Number % of transfers College grads, prior college 9,640 18 19 College grads, prior uni 7,020 13 9 College grads, prior PSE 16,660 30 28 Uni grads, prior college 9,160 17 29 Uni grads, prior uni 29,240 53 43 Uni graduates, prior PSE 38,400 70 72 Total grads, prior PSE 55,060 100 The second take away comes from when we compare the university-university pathway to the College-University pathways, as outlined here (point). The main point we want to emphasise here is the difference between Canada and Ontario. Only 17% of uni grads had a prior college qual in Ontario, compared to 29% in Canada. This shows us that college to university pathways are weaker in Ontario than Canada. This is telling of policy barriers that are still in place which limit social mobility and inclusion in the way of access to higher qualification for college students.

Who Stays in Their Field of Study (FoS)?
Ontario Canada FoS in 2009/2010 % of Grads with prior qual % of grads with prior qual in same FoS Ag 37 32 42 28 Eng 27 54 47 Bus 35 36 45 Ed 77 9 76 17 Health 40 46 44 41 Hum 34 Info sci 39 Other 31 1 Pers serv 13 25 30 Physical sci 26 62 33 61 Soc sci 38 Arts 23 58 Total So now we broke down this pathway analysis by looking at Broad Fields of Study. Comparing Ontario and Canada, we identify 2009/2010 graduates within each broad field that bring with them a prior qualification. (This is at every level) Subsequently, we report a percent of that percent of graduates who had there prior qualification in the same field of study.

Who Stays in Their Field of Study (FoS)?
Ontario Canada FoS in 2009/2010 % of Grads with prior qual % of grads with prior qual in same FoS Ag 37 32 42 28 Eng 27 54 47 Bus 35 36 45 Ed 77 9 76 17 Health 40 46 44 41 Hum 34 Info sci 39 Other 31 1 Pers serv 13 25 30 Physical sci 26 62 33 61 Soc sci 38 Arts 23 58 Total What I want to highlight here, are the fields in which there are strongest PSE pathways for students. Highlighted, are the big fields of interest that seem to retain a large proportions of students when continuing on into a following qualification. Just to walk you through an example, in Ontario, In physical sciences, 26% of 2009/2010 graduates had a prior qualification. Of that 26 percent, 62% had that prior qual, in physical sciences. The same is true for Canadian data, and similar patterns are seen in other highlighted big fields that host higher student traffic. **Special cases: Social Sciences: Social Sciences is highlighted to point out a distinction between the Ontario and Canada data. Interestingly the Ontario data pattern does not match the Canada data. In Ontario, there seems to be a stronger link in pursuing another qualification within the same field then the link in Canada.

College graduates prior qualifications & FoS
Ontario Canada FoS % Prior College % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Univ % In FoS % Prior Uni Ag 13 20 24 18 14 10 17 Eng 64 51 11 5 12 Bus 34 19 28 23 Ed 37 9 Health 25 48 33 Hum 7 29 22 Info sci Other 15 1 Pers serv 6 63 Phys sci 3 50 Soc sci 54 16 42 Arts 44 39 40 Total 21 Subsequently, we aimed to the combine our broad field and pathway analysis to be able to see what fields and sectors students were completing their prior qualification in. Here, we have a level and field analysis of all college graduates, again, comparing Ontario and Canada Data. We outline the percent of college graduates who had a prior college qualification, and a % of that, noting that the college qual was in the same field. Over here, we see the analogue of college graduates with the prior qualification in university, and a % of them in the same field.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior College % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Univ % In FoS % Prior Uni Ag 13 20 24 18 14 10 17 Eng 64 51 11 5 12 Bus 34 19 28 23 Ed 37 9 Health 25 48 33 Hum 7 29 22 Info sci Other 15 1 Pers serv 6 63 Phys sci 3 50 Soc sci 54 16 42 Arts 44 39 40 Total 21 What I want to do now is draw your attention to the totals. In the college-college pathway, we can see that the values are substantially larger than the university – college pathway. More specifically, we can see that large proportions of students who come with a prior qual, do so in the same field. This is contrasted with the university-college pathway, where the numbers are smaller. This suggests that within the college to college pathway, there seems to be a deepening effect (meaning they specialize in their areas) t, whereas from the university to college pathway, the effect seems to broadening effect (they diversify in their areas)

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior College % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Univ % In FoS % Prior Uni Ag 13 20 24 18 14 10 17 Eng 64 51 11 5 12 Bus 34 19 28 23 Ed 37 9 Health 25 48 33 Hum 7 29 22 Info sci Other 15 1 Pers serv 6 63 Phys sci 3 50 Soc sci 54 16 42 Arts 44 39 40 Total 21 Two fields of interest that I want to draw your attention too, are Engineering and Health. Here, we see quite strong pathways for the college to college track We see strong deepening, more so in Ontario data, where high percentages of college graduates in engineering and health bring with them, a prior qualification in the same field. As Eric will expand on later, we believe that the strength of this particular pathways might be strongly related to labour-market links, and the kinds of jobs people get.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior College % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Univ % In FoS % Prior Uni Ag 13 20 24 18 14 10 17 Eng 64 51 11 5 12 Bus 34 19 28 23 Ed 37 9 Health 25 48 33 Hum 7 29 22 Info sci Other 15 1 Pers serv 6 63 Phys sci 3 50 Soc sci 54 16 42 Arts 44 39 40 Total 21 Though the University-College pathway seems comparably weak in the field retention, one interesting finding that we came across was in Social Science. We see strong links within the data here, where high percentages of college graduates bring with them a university degree in social science. This could be suggestive of the nature of the field and the sector; in university, a degree in social science is broad based, where as in the college sector, social sciences are more vocationally relevant. Higher student traffic along this pathway may suggest students wanting to root their university qualification into something more applicable and marketable in the job market.

University Graduates Prior Qualifications & FoS
Ontario Canada FoS % Prior Coll % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Uni % In FoS Ag 7 100 20 34 36 31 35 Eng 5 61 18 40 68 66 Bus 14 70 28 56 29 41 Ed 4 13 76 10 19 Health 52 22 51 49 37 43 Hum 16 6 25 17 58 Info sci 38 32 39 Other 26 48 2 Pers serv 75 33 44 21 Phys sci 11 42 23 74 71 Soc sci 8 24 Arts 79 65 Total 9 30 Here we show the same analysis for university graduates.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior Coll % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Uni % In FoS Ag 7 100 20 34 36 31 35 Eng 5 61 18 40 68 66 Bus 14 70 28 56 29 41 Ed 4 13 76 10 19 Health 52 22 51 49 37 43 Hum 16 6 25 17 58 Info sci 38 32 39 Other 26 48 2 Pers serv 75 33 44 21 Phys sci 11 42 23 74 71 Soc sci 8 24 Arts 79 65 Total 9 30 Totals indicated here for college-university pathway compared to the uni-uni pathway, look like a less travelled route for students, however for those who do, a large proportion end up in the same field. However, we see in the uni-uni pathway is thriving and seems to be the most commonly travelled route.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior Coll % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Uni % In FoS Ag 7 100 20 34 36 31 35 Eng 5 61 18 40 68 66 Bus 14 70 28 56 29 41 Ed 4 13 76 10 19 Health 52 22 51 49 37 43 Hum 16 6 25 17 58 Info sci 38 32 39 Other 26 48 2 Pers serv 75 33 44 21 Phys sci 11 42 23 74 71 Soc sci 8 24 Arts 79 65 Total 9 30 Drawing your attention to Engineering, Business, and Health, we see, small numbers of university graduates coming in with a college qual, BUT those who do, again suggest a pattern of pathway deepening. High levels of students here end up pursuing further qualifications in the same field.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior Coll % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Uni % In FoS Ag 7 100 20 34 36 31 35 Eng 5 61 18 40 68 66 Bus 14 70 28 56 29 41 Ed 4 13 76 10 19 Health 52 22 51 49 37 43 Hum 16 6 25 17 58 Info sci 38 32 39 Other 26 48 2 Pers serv 75 33 44 21 Phys sci 11 42 23 74 71 Soc sci 8 24 Arts 79 65 Total 9 30 Looking at the Uni-Uni pathway, we see even stronger deepening patterns. 4 fields are broad based, while Engineering is vocationally relevant. We see the same patterns but with higher volumes of students; for those students who enter into the university sector with a prior uni qual, a high percentage of them continue on into another university qualification in the same field, suggesting a deepening pattern occurring.

Ontario Canada FoS % Prior Coll % In same FoS % In Fos % Prior Uni % In FoS Ag 7 100 20 34 36 31 35 Eng 5 61 18 40 68 66 Bus 14 70 28 56 29 41 Ed 4 13 76 10 19 Health 52 22 51 49 37 43 Hum 16 6 25 17 58 Info sci 38 32 39 Other 26 48 2 Pers serv 75 33 44 21 Phys sci 11 42 23 74 71 Soc sci 8 24 Arts 79 65 Total 9 30 Nonetheless, even though students stay within these fields of education when they undertake a second university qualification, a smaller proportion of them have a prior university qualification. 30% of Ontario’s HE graduates had a prior university qualification, compared to only 20% in some of these fields. Now, I will turn it over to Eric, who will expand on this data with occupational links in the labour market.

Labour Market Data

From Broad Fields to Subfields
Broad field – Business, management and public administration Accounting & computer science 44. Public admin & social service professions 52. Business, management, marketing & related support services Subfield – Business 52. Business, management, marketing & related support services except nine 6-digit subfields. Broadfields are a mixed bag and too broad for an analysis of relations with labour market. The team has created its own subfields, regrouping similar fields, with regard to the labour market. It means smaller number, but more expected homogeneity.

Subfields, Orientations and Regulations
Regulated? Business Occupational No Engineering practitioner Yes Humanities General Law practitioner Medicine Nurse practical Nurse registered Physical & life sciences Technician Trade Looking at Occupation and Regulation, we can see that four categories exist from the two dichotomies, though only three are present. Those three become streams for our study. We chose two exemplary subfields for each.

Three Streams

Three Streams Stream Regulated? Orientation Subfields 1. Regulated Yes
Occupational Nurse registered Engineering practitioner 2. Focused No Business Technician 3. Broad General Humanities Physical & life sciences

Three Streams’ Populations
Subfield Qualifications Total Ontario Qc trade/Voc. dipl. or cert. College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Uni dipl. or cert. below bach. Bach degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Not stated Nurse registered 80 2,160 340 2,580 Engineering practitioner 360 4,600 1,960 40 6,960 Business 12,240 10,720 3,300 100 26,360 Technician 7,540 8,040 Humanities 2,000 11,060 1,980 15,140 Physical & life sciences 20 5,400 1,560 6,980 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Eric, I’m not sure that we need to include the university diploma or certificate below bachelor degree – you could make the table bigger, and just explain we have excluded it, and you can take the trade/vocational diploma or certificate out for the same reason (and not stated)

Three Streams’ Populations
Subfield Qualifications Total Ontario Qc trade/Voc. dip. or cert. College or CEGEP dip. or cert. Uni dip. or cert. below bach. Bach deg or first prof. deg Grad degree Not stated Nurse registered 80 2,160 340 2,580 Engineering practitioner 360 4,600 1,960 40 6,960 Business 12,240 10,720 3,300 100 26,360 Technician 7,540 8,040 Humanities 2,000 11,060 1,980 15,140 Physical & life sciences 20 5,400 1,560 6,980 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Ontario’s population is 38.5 % of Canada’s

Qualification Recognition

% of grads who could have taken steps to gain a formal recognition & of those, the % who chose to obtain one Subfield Qualification Total Ontario Total Canada College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Bachelor’s degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Nurse registered 100 / 100 90 / 100 35 / 83 83 / 99 85 / 98 Engineering practitioner 56 / 20 79 / 8 65 / 41 74 / 35 77 / 71 Business 47 / 28 61 / 14 41 / 40 52 / 22 41 / 33 Technician 55 / 27 74 / 36 100 / 0 56 / 27 48 / 34 Humanities 10 / 50 21 / 64 17 / 50 19 / 61 15 / 51 Physical & life sciences 0 / 0 14 / 19 12 / 33 13 / 22 20 / 26 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Proportion (%) of graduates who could have taken steps to gain a formal recognition (licence, registration with association, or professional designation) & of those, the proportion (%) who chose to obtain one, Ontario (% who could / % who did)

% of grads who could have taken steps to gain a formal recognition & of those, the % who chose to obtain one Subfield Qualification Total Ontario Total Canada College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Bachelor’s degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Nurse registered 100 / 100 90 / 100 35 / 83 83 / 99 85 / 98 Engineering practitioner 56 / 20 79 / 8 65 / 41 74 / 35 77 / 71 Business 47 / 28 61 / 14 41 / 40 52 / 22 41 / 33 Technician 55 / 27 74 / 36 100 / 0 56 / 27 48 / 34 Humanities 10 / 50 21 / 64 17 / 50 19 / 61 15 / 51 Physical & life sciences 0 / 0 14 / 19 12 / 33 13 / 22 20 / 26 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells…

% of grads who could have taken steps to gain a formal recognition & of those, the % who chose to obtain one Subfield Qualification Total Ontario Total Canada College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Bachelor’s degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Nurse registered 100 / 100 90 / 100 35 / 83 83 / 99 85 / 98 Engineering practitioner 56 / 20 79 / 8 65 / 41 74 / 35 77 / 71 Business 47 / 28 61 / 14 41 / 40 52 / 22 41 / 33 Technician 55 / 27 74 / 36 100 / 0 56 / 27 48 / 34 Humanities 10 / 50 21 / 64 17 / 50 19 / 61 15 / 51 Physical & life sciences 0 / 0 14 / 19 12 / 33 13 / 22 20 / 26 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Proportion (%) of graduates who could have taken steps to gain a formal recognition (licence, registration with association, or professional designation) & of those, the proportion (%) who chose to obtain one, Ontario (% who could / % who did)

Qualification Level and Job Finding

Qualification Level and Job Finding
To get job, level of education was: Less than required = -1; Same as required = 1; More than required = 2; None specified = 3 Subfield Qualification Total Ontario Total Canada College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Bachelor’s degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Nurse registered -1.0 0.9 1.4 1.2 Engineering practitioner 1.0 1.7 Business 1.8 1.6 1.5 Technician 2.0 Humanities Physical & life sciences na Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Mean job match score: When you were selected for this job, what level of education was needed to get the job? Less than required = -1; Same as required = 1; More than required = 2; None specified = 3

Work and Qualification Match

Work and Qualification Match
How closely is the (main) job you held last week related to your qualification? Not related at all = 1; Somewhat related = 2; Closely related = 3 Subfield Qualification Total Ontario Total Canada College or CEGEP dipl. or cert. Bachelor’s degree or first prof. degree Grad degree Nurse registered 3.0 2.9 Engineering practitioner 2.4 2.5 2.6 Business 2.2 2.3 Technician 1.5 Humanities 1.7 1.8 1.9 Physical & life sciences na 2.1 Not all areas should be analysed. We’ll focus our work on the highlighted cells… Mean job match score: How closely is the (main) job you held last week related to your certificate, diploma or degree? Not related at all = 1; Somewhat related = 2; Closely related = 3

Summary of Educational and Labour Pathways

Summary of Educational and Labour Pathways
Stream Regulated? Orientation Subfield Qualification & Recognition Job Finding Work 1. Regulated Yes Occupational Nurse registered 83 / 99 0.9 3.0 Engineering practitioner 74 / 35 1.2 2.5 2. Focused No Business 52 / 22 1.6 2.3 Technician 56 / 27 1.8 2.4 3. Broad General Humanities 19 / 61 1.9 Physical and life sciences 13 / 22 1.5 Engineering has a very low recognition %.

Discussion Overall, links between qualifications & labour market & within FoS very weak Pathways differ by educational sector & by the purpose they serve in the labour market Different labour markets where qualifications used either as screen or signal Conclusion is not to make links between qualifications & work stronger! Overall, links between qualifications & labour market & within fields of study very weak Pathways differ by educational sector & by the purpose they serve in the labour market Different labour markets in which qualifications used either as a screen or as a signal Conclusion is not that we should try to make links between qualifications & work stronger! Would disadvantage those who use qualifications as a screen – limit their options Know from Germany, if want to make links between qualifications and work stronger, you need to regulate work. This is not an option usually contemplated by governments in liberal market economies like Canada. If that’s the case, we need to consider other ways of strengthening links between education and work – we don’t think tying things tighter will do it, because as we note such a low proportion of employers specify the field of study or mandate specific qualifications even though they may require general fields.

Policy implications 3 purposes of qualifications
Enter or upgrade in labour market Further study within FoS Support social inclusion & social mobility Qualifications serve 3 purposes differently depends on whether qualifications used as screen or signal Need a more differentiated approach to pathways that reflect broad links with labour market – move beyond only linear pathways 3 purposes of qualifications Enter or upgrade in labour market Further study within FoS Support social inclusion & social mobility Qualifications will serve 3 purposes in different ways depending on whether qualifications used as screen or signal All qualifications need to serve all three purposes Can be evaluated by the way they serve these purposes

Conclusion Do these findings make sense?
What are the implications for policy & practice at jurisdictional, institutional, departmental & course level?

Where do students go and what do they do? A preliminary analysis

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