1. North Korean Nuclear Proliferation Challenges
ICKS, Korea University
North Korean Nuclear Proliferation Challenges
July 19, 2005.
By Han Sung-Joo

2. ICKS, Korea University

3. North Korea agree to return to 6-Party Talks
ICKS, Korea University
What’s New? 1
North Korea agree to return to 6-Party Talks 2
Seoul announce proposal to provide North Korea
electric power 3
Kim Jong-Il reiterates willingness to “denuclearize” Korean Peninsula

4. What is the problem? Geneva Agreed Framework (October 1994)
ICKS, Korea University
What is the problem?
Geneva Agreed Framework (October 1994)
The “covert enrichment” problem (October 2002)
“Six Party Talks (3 rounds, August 2003 – June 2004)
Declaration of possession (February 2005)
8,000 fuel rods withdrawn
Enrichment program unaccounted for
“Six Party Talks (3 rounds, August 2003 – June 2004)

5. Will North Korea give up nuclear weapons?
ICKS, Korea University
Why?
Justify economic cooperation (fertilizer, good, etc.)
Support “embrace” policy
Shore up China’s “face”
Discourage pressure policy
Buy time
See what can be gained?
Ultimate
Question
Will North Korea give up nuclear weapons?

6. At issue Question 1. Name Calling Outpost of Axis of Tyrant
ICKS, Korea University
At issue
1. Name Calling
Axis of
Evil
Outpost of
Tyranny
Question
Tyrant
Irresponsible
Bush
Bush
Rice,
Dobriansky
Cheney
Does North Korea Really Fear U.S. “hostile policy” or an excuse?
2. Regime Change
3 Bilateral Negotiation

7. Reasons to be optimistic Reasons to be pessimistic
ICKS, Korea University
Will North Korea give up its nuclear weapons and the program? Cf. 1994
Reasons to be optimistic
Reasons to be pessimistic
Economic need
Chinese involvement
U.S. pays more attention
Rice, Hill :
close connection with the White House
Hill also has good rapport with South Korea.
Mutual understanding between the R.O.K
and U.S.
South Korea offers “Significant Plan”
NK is over the threshold
Deadlock in 2005 NPT review
conference
North Korea want, “disarmament talks”
North Korean brinkmanship works
Japan-Korea, Japan-China relations
Libya, Iraq, Iran

8. Advantages and disadvantages of 6-party talks
ICKS, Korea University
Advantages and disadvantages of 6-party talks
Advantages
Disadvantages
More pressure
burden-sharing
of negotiating
of economic assistance
Involvement of China
Can provide umbrella for
bilateral talks
Quiet diplomacy difficult
Diversity of interests
among participants
Bilateral disputes can affect
effectiveness

9. ICKS, Korea University
and : A comparison
Bush Administration - Post-9.11 America
North Korean nuclear capability
Inter-Korea relations
More visible role of China – advantage or disadvantage?
U.S. preoccupation with Iraq
Reevaluation of Agreed Framework
U.S. – North Korea Bilateral Negotiation / Talks

10. Role of the Participants
ICKS, Korea University
Role of the Participants
China: Changing priorities
To keep North Korea afloat
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
Prevent armed conflict
Is China doing enough? Can China do more?
Critical and constructive role in
China’s Leverages
For U.S.-North Korea dialogue
Limits of Chinese influence
Necessary and possible measures
Linkage with other issues (E. g. , Taiwan, Unocal)

11. Role of the Participants
ICKS, Korea University
Role of the Participants
Japan
Threat perception
Abduction issue
Relations with Korea, China over history, territorial issues
Problem of coordination, U.S. leadership, NK perception
Interest in 6-party meeting
Financial burden (LWR, Energy, Economic cooperation)

12. Role of the Participants
ICKS, Korea University
Role of the Participants
Russia
1. Energy supply
2. Diplomatic involvement – including 6-party meeting
3. North Korean view point – balance to China
4. Keep North Korea friendly

13. Role of the Participants
ICKS, Korea University
Role of the Participants
U. S.
Post 9.11 syndrome (changing priorities – from non-proliferation to anti-terrorism)
Iraq constraints (military, diplomatic, intelligence, North Korean attitude)
Working with allies (South Korea, Japan)
The “options” issue – “carrots and sticks”
Human rights issue
Regime Change?

14. Role of the Participants
ICKS, Korea University
Role of the Participants
South Korea
Threat perception – prevention of war
Means to persuade North Korea – security, economic, diplomatic
U.S. relations
Importance of alliance (Iraq dispatch)
Strategic flexibility
Dealing with North Korea
Inter-Korea relations
Uses of “sunshine policy” (Ease them out, not force them in)
change North Korea Policy
change North Korea
keep peace
improve inter- Korea relations

15. Prospects President Bush calls him “Mr.” Kim Jong-Il A breakthrough?
ICKS, Korea University
Prospects
A breakthrough?
President Bush calls him “Mr.” Kim Jong-Il
U.S. – D.P.R.K. deal?
Variation of Libyan formula
Gradual improvement step by step/ freeze/ reduction/ dismantlement
Gradual deterioration As time passes, more difficult for North Korea to give up
Catastrophe is unlikely Kim Jong-Il is a rational actor
No country wants catastrophe
On U.S.-Korea alliance Mutual desire/willingness to keep it strong