1. Moldova: Small country with big geopolitical role
Monika Begovic PhD
International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova
28 November 2016

3. New geopolitical challenges
Interests of great powers in today’s world create a more challenging environment for small countries (small powers?) 
Consequence:
Small countries need to keep options open and to balance multiple relationships;
Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of great powers

4. New geopolitical challenges
Moldova is a small state 
Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA?
Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and West;
It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and the West;
Moldova today is in the ‘grey zone’ between Western (EU and NATO) and Russian influence
Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed for influence in Moldova

5. New geopolitical challenges
Moldova and its geopolitical role:
there’s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the West over the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union
the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas  Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey
Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of Odessa and to the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed

6. Geopolitical challenges - Russia
Role of Russia:
Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage
power

7. Geopolitical implications
Russia doesn’t want Moldova to orientate towards the West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between itself and NATO
Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's financial sector – media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's banking sector is controlled by Russian capital
Moscow does retain a strong presence in Moldova's financial sector. Roughly 70 percent of Moldova's banking sector reportedly is controlled by Russian capital, and the head of Moldova's largest bank, Moldindconbank, lives in Russia and has political connections there

8. Geopolitical implications
Transnistria
After the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in March 2014 the head of the Transnistrian parliament asked to join the Russian Federation

9. Geopolitical challenges - West
Role of the West:
the country has(d) pro-Western orientation:
relations with NATO through PfP – no plans to join due to Moldova’s neutrality
striving for EU membership  relations between Moldova and the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with countries bordering its member states

10. Moldova & EU Eastern Partnership (EaP)
specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association and economic integration of eastern European partner countries.
governs its relationship with the post-Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine
provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its eastern neighbors

11. Geopolitical implications
Role of Romania:
Could moving towards West (EU) lead towards unification with Romania?
On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova

12. Demographic structure
Moldovan demography:
Moldovans (and Romanians) ~ 80%; Ukrainan ~ 8%; Russian ~ 6%; Gagauz ~ 4.5%; Bulgarian ~ 2%
Languages:
Moldovan ~ 60%; Romanian ~ 17% (?); Russian ~ 16%; Ukrainian ~ 4%; Gaguaz ~ 3%; Bulgarian 1%

13. Internal political development
Presidential elections:
Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from Europe?
Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary and Poland?
the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of Moldovan orientation towards East or West
Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by citizens rather than being chosen by parliament

14. Elections
Moldova’s presidential election are shaping the country’s politics and international orientation 
pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background, President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia and makes the economy of Moldova grow

15. The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union
headline, “Moldova’s head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections”.

16. Igor Dodon’s campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored economic bloc instead: Igor Dodon said the election “mark a new beginning” for a country blighted by poverty and graft

17. Political system of Moldova
Moldova is a parliamentary republic; But: the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead: i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve the assembly in certain situations And: Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for almost 2 years
+difficult economic situation in the country

18. Geopolitical implications
President vs. Government Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro- European stance of the current government

19. Plans after elections?
Obvious political message: Presidential elections aren’t key elections, but they’re a means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will mean something — at the parliamentary elections in 2018  Russia will use this

20. Reflections... Comparison with the Western Balkan country Macedonia:
West vs. East
Language: Moldovan or Romanian?; Macedonian or Bulgarian?
Nations – Moldovans or Romanians?; Macedonians or Macedonians from Greek region Macedonia
Unification of Moldova with Romania as a precedent  Albanians in Macedonia could ask unification of part of Macedonian territory where they make majority with Albania
Big migration – Moldavians have Romanian passports, and Macedonians Bulgarian
Poverty and corruption

21. Moldova – what next...
Moldova must continue to balance between its Eastern and Western neighbors and continue to carry out reforms. Reforms cannot be taken from some other country, they have to be carried out by the people of the country!

22. - Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics -
Moldova – what next...
- Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics -

23. Moldova...
Thank you!