1. Threats to infrastructure…and everything else

2. Today’s World I have seen it more dangerous (probably)
I have not seen it more complicated (definitely)
I have never seen it more immediate (you bet)

3. One “big thing”: Things That Seemed Permanent Are Proving Not to Be
Things like the post WW II American liberal global order

4. And he isn’t helping. Getting a seat at the table…by threatening to overturn it!!

5. And other things are changing…like the maps and borders created after WW I

6. …even things like the meaning of state, citizenship, power and religion

7. What is the center of gravity of this conflict??
A war between civilizations or a war within a civilization?

8. In any event, this is going to take a while…
Probably not this…. …maybe this

9. Brent Scowcroft (April 2012)
But a still bigger change is about the power of states and the nature of power
Nation states and hard power play less of a role
Sub-state actors and even individuals are empowered
Failed states create risk
The US is “threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones.” (2002 National Security Strategy)
Brent Scowcroft (April 2012)

10. WE ARE IN ANOTHER GREAT AGE OF GLOBALIZATION
Not Unlike the Era of European Discovery

11. Threats from Non-State Actors: Products of Empowerment and Connectivity
Terrorism
Transnational Crime
Cyber attacks

12. The products of empowerment and connectivity…we are familiar with terror

13. But the Web Is the Largest Ungoverned Space in History

14. So…What Could Go Wrong? There’s stealing your stuff
There’s corrupting your stuff
There’s hurting your network
There’s creating physical
destruction

15. And Who Could Do This?
Nation States
Criminal Gangs
Hacktivists

16. We’ve Seen a Lot of This

18. North Korea Attacks Sony Pictures

19. And now, this….

20. But wait! There’s more… Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Power
On Dec. 23, 2015 a massive power outage in western Ukraine left approximately 700,000 homes in the dark. That outage was quickly followed by two smaller outages…

21. So Where Is This Now???
“So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare. It is—it is a huge problem….The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it’s hardly doable.”
On his first day in office, President Trump will direct the Department of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop “a comprehensive plan to protect America’s vital infrastructure from cyber attacks, and all other form of attacks.”

22. But Government Has Been Late to Need Since Big Questions Still Remain

23. When Government Is Late to Need, the Private Sector Steps In
Private Sector as ”victim”
Private sector as solution
…since the cavalry isn’t coming

24. It’s a Bit of a Role Reversal
Who is the “main body”?

25. The Case for (and against) Encryption
Can you be in favor of cyber security AND demand exceptional access?

26. The Classic Risk Equation
Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence

27. Buckle up. It’s going to be a tough century.