1. Operational Issues, Risks, Costs?
How to Get There:
Operational Issues, Risks, Costs?
By: Ho-Jun Choi, Drew Floyd, Finote Gijsman, and Jay Welch

2. Architecture of NASA’s Current Plan

3. Timeline of the Plan Earth Reliant (now - 2024)
Research aboard ISS
Proving Ground ( )
Regular crewed missions to deep space environment
Earth Independent (now and beyond)
Human missions exploring Mars and its moons
Launch window every 26 months, this is NASA’s current best-plan

4. Dangers of Space Travel
High-risks
Launch
Orbital maneuvering
(Re)entry/Landing
Inherent risks of any mission scenario
Extensive equipment testing can reduce these risks

5. Dangers of Space Altered gravity - physiological consequences
Solar radiation
Isolation and confinement
Distance from Earth
Hostile/closed environment
“The Curiosity Mars rover received around 0.66 sieverts during its 253 day cruise to Mars, the equivalent of receiving a whole body CAT scan every five or six days.”
Mars_Radiation_Intro_2015April7_Final_TAGGED.pdf

6. Dangers on Mars Surface
Low-risks
Reduced gravity
Reduced Light Energy
Storms
High-risks
Radiation
Food Supply

7. Other Risks Contamination by humans Fire prevention
Protocols already in place
Indoor air pollutant abatement
Plants such as Ivy or Bamboo can filter

8. Current Space Flight Health Standards
Area
Type
Standard
Bone
Permissible Outcome Limits
More than -2SD
Cardiovascular
Fitness for Duty
Maintain more than 75% of baseline VO2 max
Neurosensory
Control spatial orientation
Behavioral
Maintain nominal behaviors
Immunology
WBC > 5000/ul; CD4 + T > 2000/ul
Nutrition
90% of spaceflight modified USDA nutrient reqs
Muscle
80% of baseline
Radiation
Permissible Exposure Limit
< 3% risk of exposure induced death (95% CI)

9. Current Research - Introduction
Four Goals for Mars Exploration:
Life on Mars?
Climate on Mars?
Geology of Mars?
Human exploration of Mars?
In preparation for human exploration goal:
ISS - radiation, low gravity
Hawaii - Isolation, Group dynamics

10. Current ISS Exposure, mental health over long time
Increased frustration and decreased morale over time
Bone loss in Zero Gravity
Loss of 250mg bone mass/day
Secondary Neutron Radiation
Leading source of radiation dosing on ISS
Harder to shield from

11. Scott Kelly - A Year in Space
“Twins Study” investigates physiological effects of space travel
Preliminary results:
Changes in telomere length (genetic implication)
Decline in bone marrow formation
Spike in inflammation after landing
Start Jay
Nature vs Nurture study
Twin brother stayed on Earth (ground-based control subject) while Scott Kelly went to ISS
trip-to-mars-be-on-the-human-body-we-now-have-a- peek-into-what-the-nasa

12. Radiation Protection Current solutions insufficient: Future solutions:
More massive layering
Polyethene
Water
Future solutions:
Hydrogenated boron nitride nanotubes
Artificial Magnetosphere around craft

13. Hawaii Space Exploration Analog and Simulation (HI-SEAS)
5 HI-SEAS Missions performed so far
Geological similarity and physical isolation
Investigation of mental health in small space
Team performance and cohesion
HI-SEAS V - started January 19, 2017 (8 month experiment)

14. Today’s Technology Plant farm Water recovery Oxygen generation
Low energy nuclear power
Rovers
“the average cost to launch a Space Shuttle into outer space costs about $450 million per mission”

15. Launchers ULA Delta 4 Heavy SpaceX Falcon Heavy Boeing SLS Flown
Big Enough
SpaceX Falcon Heavy
Boeing SLS
Big Enough /
Last Jay

16. Capsules Orion Red Dragon 3 week endurance 2022+
Can go to Mars, but not human rated
Elon Musk timeline
Start Drew Crew of 4 for orion

17. Potential Future Efforts
Series of robotic sample return
Long endurance human-craft
Similar to ISS
Alternative fuel to reduce
Cost
Duration
Nuclear? Methane?

18. Current Cost Breakdowns
Cost of Opportunity Rover: $400M
NASA 2030 Mission: ~$ B
Humans to Mars Summit estimate: $80-$100B
Question: Is a person better than sending 500 rovers, landers and orbiters?
Mars One estimates the cost of bringing the first four people to Mars at US$ 6 billion
Cost estimates for one way mission

19. And if So, What’s Stopping Us?
We don’t have a rocket for it yet
We don’t have a capsule for it yet
We don’t have the housing developed for it
NASA can’t even begin to quantify the risks of in-transit accidents
We don’t have clear knowledge about its effects on humans

20. Thank You