1. Energy: Supply and demand
Dr. Ron Lembke

2. US Energy “Sankey” Diagram - 2011

3. US Energy “Sankey” Diagram - 2016

4. Hot, Flat, and Crowded Hot: Climate Change
Flat: Technology and Bandwidth
Crowded: More people, who want to live like us

5. The demand for energy

7. International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov

8. EIA Demand Scenarios

9. The supply of energy

10. Hubbert’s Peak
M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),

12. Causality or Correlation?

16. When is the Peak? 2004 data

17. Different Scenarios

19. Fracking

20. EPA: 2-4 million gallons per well = 200 to 400 tanker trucks of water

24. Where Does it Come From?

25. Where does our oil come from?

27. Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook ~2009

29. Data, US EIA, 1/29/2015

30. Reserves, Production, years left
Data: EIA, 1/29/2015

31. Tar Sands Strip mine for bitumen, a sandy oil solid
Liquefy with steam and caustic soda NaOH
Slurry is pumped,
2 tons of sand for 1 barrel (1/8 ton) of oil
90% recovery with centrifuges
17% more GHG than regular oil production
Phases 3 & 4: “Keystone XL”
Phase 4 goes over Ogallala Aquifer
Drinking water for 2m people
$20b agriculture
830,000 barrels per day
Crosses earthquake zones
June, 2010
Feb, 2011

32. Keystone XL 36” diameter 910mm
up to 830,000 barrels per day
Phase III – 700,000 bpd
US production 12,500,000 barrels per day

33. Tar Sands
Photo: Forbes

34. 4b barrels
3,000 b barrels?
410T cu.ft
15b barrels
32T cu.ft

35. Green river formation 3,000 BILLION Barrels?!?
Government Accountability Office and private industry
Seems to be consensus that there is that much oil there
1 trillion barrels total human consumption so far
GAO: Commercial development at least 15-20years away
May require huge amounts of water
They may get one barrel of water with every barrel of oil
Traditional fracking won’t do it
Oil tightly bound to the rock – heat to FIVE THOUSAND DEGREES
“In situ”: send a heater down below
Cost $65 per barrel

36. The Price of energy

37. Gas Prices
Data:

38. Price of Liquids

39. The Price of Fuel

41. EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011
Death Valley, April 2012

42. NV Electricity Prices
Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94

44. US Coal Reserves

47. Pinion Pine Power Plant
DOE Clean Coal
Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
$335.9m, half DOE, half SPP
New gasification method
New desulfurization method

48. Carbon Capture & Sequestration
Porous rock formations
Small scale tests
Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained
So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE!
There are other pollutants
What if it gets out?
Natural gas stays safely underground

49. Solar Resources

54. Geothermal Resources

55. Wind Resources

56. Renewables’ Share growing

57. US Energy Sources

58. Summary Demand for energy is going to increase significantly
Growing populations
Rising standards of living
Supply of energy not increasing as fast
Global oil supplies are finite
Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years
Alternative energy sources

61. ,
Feb 2, 1962 ad in Life magazine
Humble merged with Standard to become Exxon